Projection Reflections: Preseason Week 1 Adjustments - Footballguys

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Projection reflections

At Footballguys, we provide real-time projections all season long. Our first set goes live the day after the NFL draft, and sometimes the changes can get lost in the shuffle. Statistics are the engine behind many of our key features, but numbers are only valuable if there's context. This feature will take a look at the key projections adjustments each week of the preseason, with an eye toward providing context and significance to the numbers. Included in this week's column:

1. A trio of franchise quarterbacks on the rise
2. Quarterback ebbs and flows
3. Small changes with big implications at the top of the running back ranks
4. Second- and third-down running backs jockeying for position
5. Reshuffling the Patriots' backfield
6. Adjusting for Derrius Guice's torn ACL in Washington
7. Key shifts among the elite receivers
8. Team-specific wide receiver tandems
9. Key tight ends in flux
10. Other running back moves of note
11. Other wide receiver moves of note
12. Late-round tight ends worth knowing

Franchise Quarterbacks on the Mend

I tend to be ultra-conservative with players recovering from major injuries until we see evidence of progress. In all three cases, my initial projections and rankings for this trio of signal callers were well below consensus. However, all three are progressing well and warranted upgrades.

• Deshaun Watson tore his ACL last November during practice but was fully recovered for the start of training camp. He's practiced without restriction and played in the first preseason game against the Chiefs. His rushing upside re-establishes Watson as a top-5 fantasy prospect even though his completion rate, yards-per-attempt, and touchdown rate are all due for a regression from last year's truncated breakout.
• Andrew Luck hadn't thrown a pass in nearly 600 days before getting cleared at the start of training camp. He's been a full participant and looks sharp, and like Watson played in the team's first preseason game. Luck may move higher in subsequent updates, but I still want to see him make all the throws and play more snaps before bumping him back to a full 16-game projection.
• Carson Wentz tore multiple ligaments last year and has not been fully cleared. He's been held out of 11-on-11 drills for most of the preseason, and there's no definitive timetable for his return. Since he's probably not going to play in the preseason, Wentz' bump is as high as I'm likely to go on him at this point. He's still ranked well below consensus ADP, as I think Wentz is due for regression and is currently overvalued.

QB2 EBBS AND FLOWS

All of these quarterbacks are drafted in the later rounds as QB2s, but each has undergone a multi-spot move in the rankings over the last few weeks.

• Dak Prescott falls from QB13 to QB17, as training camp has been disappointing so far. Almost every beat writer has characterized Prescott's performance as uneven, at best. His solid showing in the first preseason game helps mitigate the re-rating, but it still warranted bringing down his passing efficiency a bit. Prescott can bounce back with a strong few weeks.
• Andy Dalton is the lone riser in this quartet, but also the least exciting of the bunch. The Bengals' rebuilt offensive line is progressing well, and young receivers John Ross and Tyler Boyd have shown enough to warrant Brandon LaFell's release.
• Mitch Trubisky was the sexy sleeper thanks to Matt Nagy's hire and the major overhaul of the receiving corps, including Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Trey Burton, and rookie Anthony Miller. The hype may have been overdone, and Trubisky hasn't shown anything to warrant the early confidence. It's still early, but for now, he should be viewed as a low-end QB2.
• Jamies Winston's downgrade is the most painful. My projections for Winston were at the high end of the industry, and I felt he had an excellent chance at breaking into the top-8 this year with a stacked supporting cast. The three-game suspension, as well as the commensurate questions about his maturity, forced a meaningful reset of his projections. On a per game basis, he rates higher than QB25, and I would still draft Winston over a handful of quarterbacks projected to finish higher.

Tiny Moves, Big Implications

Sometimes a minor change in the projections can have significant implications. Fantasy managers understandably obsess about early draft picks, in particular, and a few minor tweaks to this group of elite running backs were enough to shift their overall rankings. The net result drops David Johnson to a below-consensus No. 5 while putting Ezekiel Elliott and Alvin Kamara into the top-4 overall. I would recommend drafting both Elliott and Kamara ahead of Antonio Brown (No. 5) but would draft Brown, and possibly DeAndre Hopkins, over Johnson.

• Ezekiel Elliott started the preseason as my No. 4 ranked running back, and gains a single rushing touchdown (13) and a handful of additional targets, receptions, and receiving yards. The offensive line looks better than ever, Elliott is in great shape, and the coaches insist the running backs will be heavier involved in the passing game.
• Alvin Kamara vaults over David Johnson, Antonio Brown, and DeAndre Hopkins with a minor bump in his rushing projections. Mark Ingram's suspension isn't going to have a huge impact on Kamara's role, but it can't hurt. More importantly, Kamara was dynamic running the ball last year, and it would be illogical not to give him at least ten carries per game this year.
• David Johnson remains a top-5 running back, but the Cardinals offense is concerning, as is the change in coaching staffs. It's risky to assume Johnson's 2016 season is a proxy for future use when Bruce Arians was such a unique play-caller.

Early-Round Running backs in Motion

Most of the running backs in this call-out are getting slight increases, but LeSean McCoy gets a huge jump as his legal situation settles down, for now.

• Christian McCaffrey jumps a few spots into the RB1 tier, thanks to a modest increase in his rushing workload. By now you've heard both Norv Turner and Ron Rivera talk about McCaffrey as a 20+ touch player. I'm not ready to give him that level of work, but 176 carries equate to 11 per game, and we got corroboration of his increased role in the first preseason game. McCaffrey could trend higher here, particularly with a few more short-yardage touchdowns.
• Jerick McKinnon is moving in the wrong direction, but only moderately. Had Matt Breida not injured his shoulder in Week 1, I might have dropped McKinnon a bit more as he looked tentative in his snaps.
• Joe Mixon gets an increased receiving share as I think my initial projections underestimated his role as the feature back. Giovani Bernard isn't going to always replace Mixon in obvious passing downs.
• Jordan Howard gets a modest 15 carry increase and an additional rushing touchdown. Fears his role would be trimmed under Matt Nagy's watch were premature. If anything, it seems Howard's role as the bellcow is secure but Tarik Cohen's role is uncertain (more on that later).
• LeSean McCoy moves back into the top-20, as I had him at just 8 games played after news of domestic abuse accusations surfaced. He's not out of the legal woods, but the further along the preseason goes without further developments, the more he's worth the risk as a low-end RB2.

Sony Michel's Loss is Rex Burkhead's Gain

Handicapping the Patriots backfield is never easy, and it got more complicated when prized first-round rookie Sony Michel hurt his knee in training camp. The team expects Michel back, but missing the entire preseason is sure to set back his role in the complex, veteran-laden offense. Michel's loss is Rex Burkhead's gain, but he's not the only winner worth highlighting.

• Sony Michel's knee injury dropped him into RB4 range, but it's worth noting I was lukewarm on Michel's value before the injury.
• Rex Burkhead showed last year he can be an impact fantasy player when he's the teams No. 1 option. The Patriots are notoriously unpredictable, so Burkhead remains just outside the top-20, but Michel's injury puts in a floor on Burkhead's outlook and makes him a viable fourth- or fifth-round gem.
• James White gets an across the board increase but remains a fringe fantasy asset in 12-team leagues.
• Jeremy Hill and Mike Gillislee get bumps because both have a much better shot at the 53-man roster.

Washington Is In Trouble Without Derrius Guice

Preseason injuries are heart-breaking, and Derrius Guice's torn ACL is the first devastating blow to preseason fantasy hopes. Guice was doing all the right things on and off the field and was rightfully shooting up draft boards. He was a top-20 running back in all formats and could've moved a few slots higher with a strong preseason. He's now lost for the season, and Washington is faced with the harsh reality of an ineffective rushing offense. The team ranked 27th in rushing yards, 21st in rushing touchdowns, and 30th in yards per attempt last season, with the same running back stable.

• Chris Thompson is a top-30 running back in PPR formats, but he got no increase in his projected role with Guice's injury. Thompson already had the third-down receiving role locked up, and he'll continue to be a vital outlet in the passing game and a non-factor on the ground.
• Samaje Perine has gone full circle. This time last year he was the fantasy darling and the presumed savior of the Washington rushing offense. He struggled with the playbook and pass-blocking and was thought to be on the roster bubble a few weeks ago. Now he's in a dead heat for the starting role again.
• Rob Kelley showed up to training camp in fantastic shape, making his former nickname of "Fat Rob" a misnomer. Kelley will compete head-to-head with Perine for the lead role.
• Derrius Guice has been placed on injured reserve and will miss his rookie year. He'll return next season and immediately warrant consideration as a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside.

Shifts Among the Elite Receivers

The receiver position didn't have any major shakeups at the very top, but a handful of important fantasy stars are moving up-and-down the WR2 tier.

• Doug Baldwin is dealing with a knee injury. It's not supposed to last into the regular season, but the uncertainty warranted minor reductions across the board.
• T.Y. Hilton never lacked No. 1 talent, but Andrew Luck's absence was an albatross. With Luck healthy, Hilton moves into second-round consideration.
• Jarvis Landry was paid to be the star in Cleveland, but questions abounded. Now that both Tyrod Taylor and Baker Mayfield look functional, and Corey Coleman is traded, Landry becomes a guaranteed target monster again.
• Tyreek Hill is going to struggle matching last year, with Sammy Watkins replacing Albert Wilson and Patrick Mahomes replacing Alex Smith. But I was too punitive in my first set of projections, and have adjusted accordingly.
• Demaryius Thomas is no spring chicken, rookie Courtland Sutton looks phenomenal, and Case Keenum is not very good.
• Brandin Cooks has No. 1 ability, but a closer analysis of the Rams offense makes 120+ targets unlikely.
• Alshon Jeffery is on the PUP list and was touchdown dependent last year; he needed to be lowered a tier.

Team Tandems (And a Trio)