This article will take a weekly look at players who are either undervalued or overvalued in a given week. The outlier is calculated by a comparison between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the initial weekly Footballguys rankings. Both sources are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, the matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's look at this week's outlier players.
Quarterback
- Top 200 ranking: 24
- Weekly ranking: 5
- Difference: +19
Fitzpatrick has turned on the magic. He almost led Tampa Bay to the upset against Cincinnati but fell just short. The game against Carolina this week is a neutral matchup but the journeyman has shown that he can put up big numbers in this offense. We like him as a fantasy starter this week on a week that many good quarterback options are either on bye or have poor matchups.
- Top 200 ranking: 8
- Weekly ranking: 3
- Difference: +5
Cousins has enjoyed a great season in Minnesota. The game against the Lions should be a high-scoring affair. Detroit has yielded big games through the air and we expect another one this week. We love the Cousins-to-Thielen connection this week. The pair has been on fire. The Dalvin Cook injury also means more pass attempts and less reliance on the run for the Vikings offense.
Mitchell Trubisky
- Top 200 ranking: 5
- Weekly ranking: 11
- Difference: -6
Trubisky has had a nice season. The game against the Bills will be more hard-fought than most expect. Buffalo played well defensively on Monday night and should continue the strong play versus Chicago. The game is in western New York and the weather could be nasty.
- Top 200 ranking: 6
- Weekly ranking: 9
- Difference: -3
The Saints host the Rams this week in a battle of the NFC best squads. We expect this to be an unexpectedly low-scoring game. While we have Brees ranked lower this week, we do not recommend benching him unless having another very good option.
Running Back
- Top 200 ranking: 43
- Weekly ranking: 11
- Difference: +32
Murray gets another crack at the starting gig while Cook is out of action. The good news is the Lions are the seventh-best matchup, giving up an average of 29 PPR fantasy points per contest. Minnesota should score enough to allow Murray ample touchdown opportunities. We like Murray as a low-level RB1 fantasy option.
- Top 200 ranking: 34
- Weekly ranking: 19
- Difference: +15
Martin looked the part of lead back last week and could surprise with a big game on Thursday night against San Francisco. The 49ers have a middling defense and this game sets up for a surprising Oakland win without too much imagination.
Mark Ingram
- Top 200 ranking: 13
- Weekly ranking: 17
- Difference: -4
Ingram may not get many opportunities for short touchdowns against the Rams and Aaron Donald. With Kamara’s emergence, Ingram is mainly relied upon to salt away large leads and this game may not offer the applicable game script for Ingram to be a top-end fantasy option.
Melvin Gordon
- Top 200 ranking: 4
- Weekly ranking: 8
- Difference: -4
Gordon and his teammates travel to Seattle this week to face the Seahawks. The Seattle defense is playing well and will pose a stiff test for the Chargers. Gordon will get carries but may not get too many scoring opportunities.
Wide Receiver
Marvin Jones
- Top 200 ranking: 18
- Weekly ranking: 11
- Difference: +7
Jones and Kenny Golladay should benefit from the trading away of Golden Tate. The Lions should be playing from behind and throwing often. We like both Detroit pass-catchers in this matchup. Jones had a monster game last Sunday and looks to repeat the performance.
- Top 200 ranking: 15
- Weekly ranking: 6
- Difference: +9
Woods gets a plum matchup against the Saints this week. New Orleans is the worst defense defending wide receivers, yielding a whopping 53 PPR fantasy points per game, 5 more than the next team (Tampa Bay). We like the Los Angeles wide receivers as Todd Gurley may not have much running room against the stiff run defense.
- Top 200 ranking: 12
- Weekly ranking: 16
- Difference: -4
The Steelers travel to Baltimore to face the Ravens in a game that could determine the fate of the AFC North division. We like Smith-Schuster as a middle-of-the-road fantasy WR2 this week instead of a low-end WR1 like most weeks. He still should be started in fantasy lineups unless having great options. The Ravens have a top-shelf defense and the Ben Roethlisberger left-hand finger fracture will not help the cause.
- Top 200 ranking: 17
- Weekly ranking: 32
- Difference: -15
The Denver passing offense has been a rollercoaster ride this year. There is little faith in Case Keenum across fantasy owners. As the Demaryius Thomas trade will open up opportunities for Sutton, we do not especially like his chances against the Texans. The game looks to favor Emmanuel Sanders over Sutton in game flow and defensive alignment. Also, he is a player who could rise in the rankings/projections as time allows for more analysis. We use the initial rankings for his column … and they are subject to change.
Tight End
- Top 200 ranking: 5
- Weekly ranking: 2
- Difference: +3
The Raiders are ok at defending the tight end but the injuries to the 49ers skill-position players might be enough to vault Kittle to the top spot this week. The Thursday night game will be interesting as either team can win the game and both have seen their share of bad luck.
- Top 200 ranking: 12
- Weekly ranking: 6
- Difference: +6
Olsen is a player who is undervalued after returning from his foot injury. As the Panthers face the Buccaneers this week, Olsen could have a big game against the weak-against-the-pass Tampa Bay defense. This is a defense giving up 18 PPR points each week – on average – to opposing tight ends. Olsen could stretch that average even higher.
- Top 200 ranking: 4
- Weekly ranking: 11
- Difference: -7
The uncertainty at the quarterback position, combined with the difficult matchup against the Panthers, should be enough to give fantasy owners pause for a big outing. Howard is still a playable TE1 option, just with less upside than normal. It is difficult for fantasy players to know which week Howard or Cameron Brate will have a big game.
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