Cracking FanDuel: Week 6 - Footballguys

Photo: USA Today Sports

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

• Everything is sorted by position
• I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
• The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 6 Price
• The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
• H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
• ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
• In the 2017 Cracking FanDuel book, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
• I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position.

General Thoughts

Situations that stand out to me this week.

• Offensive scoring is way up this season, but week 6 has just eight teams that are expected to score 24+ points on the 24-team main slate. Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Listed by descending expected team points:
  
  
  • Atlanta Falcons - 30.00 points (home vs TB)
  • Los Angeles Rams - 29.25 points (away at DEN)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 27.00 points (away at ATL)
  • Minnesota Vikings - 26.50 points (home vs ARI)
  • Cincinnati Bengals - 26.00 (home vs PIT)
  • Houston Texans - 25.50 (home vs BUF)
  • Seattle Seahawks - 25.50 points (away at OAK)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers - 24.50 points (away at CIN)

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons - Vegas has set the over/under at a whopping 57.0 points. Neither team has much of a defense. The Buccaneers are yielding a league-worst 458 combined yards and 4.2 touchdowns a contest. The Falcons have been decimated by in-season injuries and are fielding a defense that has yielded 411 combined yards and 4.0 touchdowns a game. QB Jameis Winston ($7,400) and TE Cameron Brate ($4,500) are exceedingly cheap and should be the basis for a large percentage of your cash game lineups. Atlanta spreads the ball around to their wide receivers, but I think a non-stacked Matt Ryan ($8,300) could still work if the game becomes the shootout I expect it to be. Julio Jones ($8,500) grades out as my top value wide receiver but hinges on him reaching the end zone which he has failed to do in 2018. Austin Hooper's price ($5,600) has increased, but the Bucs are giving up a league-high 16.8 fantasy points/game to tight ends.
  
  
• Pressure Indicator - The Bears top my pressure indicator and should wreck the Dolphins front in Miami. The indicator predicts 1.1 fumble recoveries and 5.5 sacks based on normalized past results. The Buffalo / Houston game features two defenses that should pressure their quarterbacks a lot. This kind of pressure can yield interceptions, fumbles and defensive touchdowns. On the other end of the scale, Joe Flacco ($7,000) looks like he will have an easy pocket to throw from. I like pairing him with John Brown ($6,300) in GPPs.
  
  
• The Colts are barely fielding a team - This team is decimated on offense and defense. Staring players from the Jets is always an adventure, but WR Quincy Enunwa ($5,800) and RB Bilal Powell ($5,800) could have big games and allow you cap relief to get guys like Todd Gurley ($9,500) in your lineup.
  
  
• Top offenses against bad defenses - The Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers both are top 8 passing offenses against bottom 8 passing defenses (see above). They are the only two teams on this slate that match that criteria and they play each other. The Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Rams both field top 8 rushing offenses against the bottom 8 rushing defenses. Todd Gurley ($9,500) is expensive but worth rostering. Christian McCaffrey ($8,400) is in a great matchup but is a tad too expensive for my tastes because of Cam Newton's ability to vulture rushing touchdowns.
  
  
• Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals - The over/under on this game has moved downward from a 54.5 opening to 50.5 where it now resides. This, coupled with expected light rain, seems to suggest a slower paced contest emphasizing the run. I like RB Joe Mixon ($7,500), RB James Conner ($8,200), and the always under-priced Tyler Boyd ($6,300) in this one. TE C.J. Uzomah ($5,100) faces a Pittsburgh defense yielding 16.1 fantasy points to the position.
  
  
• Lots of questionable tags this week to monitor on Sunday - If RB Isaiah Crowell scratches, RB Bilal Powell will vault into my cash lineups. If Dalvin Cook were to scratch, RB Latavius Murray will be a must play. TE Cameron Brate's value will go higher if O.J. Howard scratches. If either WR Paul Richardson Jr or Jamison Crowder scratch, WR Maurice Harris will be a low-rostered player that could win you a GPP. If either Adrian Peterson or Chris Thompson miss, the other's value will move north with more opportunities.

Cash+ Stacks I am targeting (listed highest to lowest cost)

• QB Deshaun Watson / WR DeAndre Hopkins ($17,100)
• QB Matt Ryan / WR Julio Jones ($16,800)
• QB Kirk Cousins / WR Adam Thielen ($16,500)
• QB Jared Goff / WR Robert Woods ($15,500)
• QB Jameis Winston / WR Mike Evans ($15,400)
• QB Jared Goff / WR Cooper Kupp ($15,000)
• QB Matt Ryan / WR Calvin Ridley ($15,000)
• QB Baker Mayfield / WR Jarvis Landry ($14,000)
• QB Matt Ryan / TE Austin Hooper ($13,900)
• QB Deshaun Watson / WR Keke Coutee ($13,800)
• QB Andy Dalton / WR Tyler Boyd ($13,800)
• QB Joe Flacco / WR John Brown ($13,300)
• QB Blake Bortles / WR Keelan Cole ($12,600)
• QB Jameis Winston / TE Cameron Brate ($11,900)
• RB Jordan Howard / Def Chicago ($10,700)
• RB Bilal Powell / Def NY Jets ($10,000)

players for GPP differentiation

• QBs: Blake Bortles, Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield, Derek Carr, Joe Flacco
• RBs: Jordan Howard, Marshawn Lynch, Dalvin Cook/Latavius Murray, Carlos Hyde, Bilal Powell
• WRs: John Brown, Quincy Enunwa, Emmanuel Sanders, Keelan Cole, Allen Robinson, Maurice Harris
• TEs: Nick Vannett, Charles Clay, Ricky Seals-Jones
• Def: Cleveland, Seattle, Washington, New York Jets

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash+ (TB Stack - Projected Points = 132.7

• QB Jameis Winston, TB - $7,400
• RB Todd Gurley, LAR - $9,500
• RB Melvin Gordon, LAC - $8,200
• TE Cameron Brate, TB - $4,500
• WR Tyler Boyd, CIN - $6,300
• WR John Brown, BAL - $6,300
• WR Quincy Enunwa, NYJ - $5,800
• Flex RB James Conner, PIT - $8,200
• TD Cleveland Browns - $3,200

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Cash+ (Howard/Chi Def Stack - Projected Points = 131.7

• QB Matt Ryan, ATL - $8,300
• RB Todd Gurley, LAR - $9,500
• RB Joe Mixon, CIN - $7,500
• TE Cameron Brate, TB - $4,500
• WR Tyler Boyd, CIN - $6,300
• WR John Brown, BAL - $6,300
• WR Jarvis Landry, CLE - $6,900
• Flex RB Jordan Howard, CHI - $6,200
• TD Chicago Bears, CHI - $4,500