Six Footballguys staff completed a 6-man Week 9 mock draft using the DRAFT scoring format below. Each participant must fill a roster with exactly these five positions: QB-RB-RB-WR/TE-WR/TE using a serpentine draft style.
OFFICIAL DRAFT SCORING FORMAT
Passing Yard 0.04
Passing TD 4
Interception Thrown -1
Reception 0.5
Rushing Yard 0.1
Rushing TD 6
Receiving Yard 0.1
Receiving TD 6
Return TD 6
2-Point Conversion 2
Fumble Lost -2
THE PARTICIPANTS FOR THE WEEK 8 DRAFT:
1.01 Keith Roberts
1.02 Justin Howe
1.03 Dan Hindery
1.04 Devin Knotts
1.05 Sean Settle
1.06 James Brimacombe
DRAFT RESULTS
DRAFT EVALUATION
keith roberts - SLOT 1
Overview - Keith drafted a team filled with talent and good matchups. In most cases, both. LeVeon Bell anchors his running back duo and he may need to carry the load if Jerick McKinnon isn't able to find the end zone. Lucky for Keith, McKinnon has reached pay dirt, scoring four times over the last four games. His receivers are solid in Rob Gronkowski and Michael Thomas. Gronkowski will face the suddenly exploitable Denver defense who have given up 80 points in the last two weeks and five touchdowns to tight ends this season. Michael Thomas has what looks like a good matchup on paper, but Buffalo has been stingy on defense, especially at home. This season Buffalo has allowed only one 100-yard wide receiver and only 4 total touchdowns to wide receivers, only one at home. I'm a little less excited about the Michael Thomas pick, but if any team can turn on the offense, it's New Orleans and Drew Brees. Keith selected Cam Newton as his quarterback at pick 4.06. Newton has 2 passing touchdowns and 6 interceptions in the last four games. If not for his rushing ability, his production would be minimal. Newton will host the Dolphins on Monday Night Football, who have given up only two games with more than one touchdown pass. This may be more of a rush-oriented attack for Carolina, which favors Newton. Two scores and 50 yards rushing is not out of the question. A third touchdown from Newton will strengthen Keith's cause to come out on top this week.
keith ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
Having the first pick in a week where LeVeon Bell faces a defense like the Colts makes for a pretty easy start to the draft. From Bell, I immediately knew I would want to target Rob Gronkowski with my second pick. These drafts are always running back heavy within the first round, and it was a given that both Julio Jones and Antonio Brown would be off the board by the time my picks rolled around next. Gronkowski faced a Broncos defense allowing 17.4 fantasy points per game to tight ends—third most in the league. The Broncos cornerbacks have been tough on wide receivers all season long, which has funneled production to the tight end in nearly every game this season. Given the drop off in running back, I elected to sew up my second receiver with the pick of Michael Thomas—a high floor option against a mediocre Buffalo pass defense. In hindsight, the safer play likely would have been taking a Devonta Freeman or Mark Ingram in place of Thomas, as I did not quite realize how slim the pickings would be once we arrived at the RB12 position. I selected Jerick McKinnon due to his workload upside, particularly in the passing game, as he has hauled in an average of five receptions per game paired with 15 carries per game over his last four outings.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Cam Newton will be the key to my roster. He is in a tough matchup against a Miami defense that has looked great this season, but Newton has been rushing much more frequently this season with at least nine rushing attempts in each of his last four games, averaging just over 60 rushing yards per game over that span with a couple of touchdowns to boast as well. I am looking for the 2015 Cam Newton this week, despite his tough matchup against a Dolphins defense that has allowed a season-low 14 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. The Dolphins have, however, allowed the second highest completion rate (69.9%) and T-10th highest yards per pass attempt (7.5) to opposing quarterbacks, which should significantly help Newton as he has struggled with accuracy and downfield passing for most of this season.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I will assert that Rob Gronkowski as the fourth receiver off the board will be my best value of the week. I’ve already gone over how weak the Broncos have been against opposing tight ends this season, and Gronkowski is one of the best tight ends in the game. With Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell out and Danny Amendola banged up, Gronkowski should really just have to contend with Brandin Cooks and James White for targets this week. With Cooks likely to be smothered by Aqib Talib, Gronkowski should get some solid downfield looks. Gronkowski has at least one touchdown in over half the games in which he has played and coming off the bye week, he should be as healthy as he has been since Week 1. I like his chances for a 100+ yard game with multiple touchdowns.
4. If you could choose one more player not drafted at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
There was one guy who absolutely came to mind when I read this question, and no, it was not Alvin Kamara despite how much I do agree with the rest of the guys here. The player I would have wanted for this week is Robby Anderson. Believe it or not, Anderson has been the sixth highest scoring fantasy wide receiver over the last three weeks with a touchdown in each of those games. Anderson has been very involved in this Jets offense in recent weeks, and Josh McCown has actually played much better than expected at the help of this Jets offense. The primary reason for this pick though would have been his matchup, facing a Buccaneers defense giving up over 40 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Anderson should match up against Brent Grimes, who has a banged-up shoulder and has not been very good even when healthy. While it is a very risky pick, the matchup upside and big play speed that Anderson has sets him aside from many other options this week.
justin howe - SLOT 2
Overview: Justin has centered his team around the Lions stack of Matthew Stafford and Marvin Jones. Stafford has been hot lately, averaging over 350 yards passing in the last three games with five touchdown passes in that time. Only four other receivers have more targets than Marvin Jones over the last four weeks and Jones has three touchdowns in that time. Detroit will host Cleveland this week, which makes this stack even more favorable. In addition to the Lions stack, Justin will have Todd Gurley and Carlos Hyde at running back, both of which are in the Top 8 for fantasy production over the last four weeks. His last pick of Adam Thielen is a volume pick. Few wide receivers have been bigger contributors than Thielen this year, except he has only one touchdown. Despite the scoring deficiency, Thielen is ranked 18th in this scoring format this season. Justin has a strong team capable of putting up enough points to win this week.
justin ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I think that, in this format, controlling the engines of two offenses is the optimal strategy. So, to mixed success, I'm continuing to throw two strong (if not elite) running back noodles at the wall and hoping they stick. Holding the second pick, I knew I'd land either Gurley or LeVeon Bell, and with my second pick I went for the opportunity and floor of a strong RB2 (Hyde) over a few sexier receivers. Again, this way, I'm holding the driving forces behind two offenses, and both are in solid RB situations. Gurley will likely see gobs and gobs of work in an apparent cakewalk with a 12-point spread, while Hyde, who's been commandeering his offense on a Bell/Gurley level, should drive the truck all the way through a close matchup.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
We'll see about the Adam Thielen pick. I made it because I don't love T.Y. Hilton's chances at an eruption this week; the Steelers rush the passer far too well to allow the Colts too many open looks deep downfield. Thielen has been a relatively quiet target hog - he drew 10 last week in Stefon Diggs' return from injury - and boasts virtually the same athletic dynamism and big-play resume as Diggs himself. Even if Diggs is recovered fully, he'll draw a solid amount of Josh Norman's coverage, while Thielen will mostly hide out in the slot. This could backfire in any number of ways - and I wish I'd known how serious Chris Hogan's injury seems to be, or I may have jumped on Brandin Cooks. But Thielen is well within contention for a stout 7-catch, 100-yard, 1-touchdown performance. That's deep-fried gold from your final pick.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I love locking down a hefty chunk of the Lions passing game as they take on the Browns. Stacking is is generally essential in this format, so to bring home the week's top quarterback plus his volume-gobbling downfield threat suits me just fine. Game flow is a bit of a concern - it wouldn't surprise anyone if the Lions jumped ahead 24-3 early - but this Lions offense is built to throw, even with solid leads. And frankly, any worry I have over this stack is generally assuaged when I realize I snagged this pair with my third and fourth picks - even though it's probably the stack of the week.
4. If you could choose one more player not drafted at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
I was also surprised Alvin Kamara wasn't taken. He definitely seems like a top-12 running back play, especially here, with no salary cap. But I think that's just a function of drafting in a staff that favors floor in this format. Since I wrestled hard with my final pick, which had to be a WR2, I'll also bring up Stefon Diggs, whom I nearly took before settling on his teammate (Thielen). Diggs has had a bye and a week of scaled-back workload, so there's a good chance his nagging groin issue has relaxed (for now).
dan hindery - SLOT 3
Overview - Dan assembled a competitive team that has capable drivers at every position. DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey and Ben Roethlisberger is a balanced team with several players who can carry the roster if the cards fall their way. Roethlisberger may wind up being the determining factor of how far this team can go. Pittsburgh has a decent matchup at Indianapolis, but this Colts team has not allowed more than two touchdown passes in any game this year. If Roethlisberger thrives, this team will impress.
dan ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I feel like there is a top tier of three running backs in Week 10, so the decision was pretty straight forward when I drew the 1.03 spot. Leonard Fournette was the only one of the top three who was still there and an easy pick. He has scored a touchdown in every single game of his NFL career to date. One of the biggest keys to winning 6-Team Drafts is hitting on some position players who score at least one touchdown, so I like to prioritize players with touchdown upside with my early picks. By the time it got back around to me at 2.04, there weren’t any major tier breaks at any of the positions so I felt free to simply draft the players whose matchups and projections I liked best from a wide pool of similar players. I tried to focus in on talented wide receivers who were likely to see a bunch of targets (A.J. Green and DeAndre Hopkins) and not go bump up average players too highly just because they have nice matchups on paper. I hoped to add a running back playing as a home favorite and was able to do so with Christian McCaffrey. There are plenty of quarterbacks with solid projections and high implied team totals who I knew would be available late (Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Jared Goff and Cam Newton) so it felt like a week where it was safe to wait until the final round at quarterback.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
A.J. Green at 2.04 was more a “go with my gut” pick than based on hard numbers or projections. Green has struggled over the past three weeks. His frustrations boiled over late in the first half of Week 9 when he body-slammed and punched Jalen Ramsey. The normally calm Green was as fired up as we’ve seen him in his seven NFL seasons. He somewhat surprisingly avoided a suspension for Week 10, which may not bode well for the Tennessee Titans secondary. Expect an intense and focused A.J. Green to channel his emotions in a more positive direction and get back on track with a big week. If he does, my roster sets up pretty well. If Green continues to struggle and posts a fourth-straight poor fantasy performance, it would be a major blow to my team.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I like getting DeAndre Hopkins down at 4.04. Sure, his efficiency numbers are likely to take a hit with the downgrade at quarterback from Deshaun Watson to Tom Savage. However, Hopkins doesn’t need to be incredibly efficient to put up good fantasy numbers as long as he continues to be peppered with targets. In Week 9, Savage targeted Hopkins 16 times. Even though Hopkins caught just 6-of-16, he was still able to post 86 yards and 1 touchdown. His 17.6 Draft points made him one of the top wide receivers on the slate. Houston heads to Los Angeles as a double-digit underdog against the Rams in Week 10. The most likely game script is Houston playing from behind, which would mean Hopkins has a realistic chance to again see well over 10 targets.
4. If you could choose one more player not drafted at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
My highest-rated players who weren’t drafted were Alvin Kamara and Dez Bryant but I’ll go off the board a little bit with a boom-or-bust play that I find very intriguing this week, DeSean Jackson. Jackson has seen a solid 6.9 targets per game through the first half of the season. His running mate, Mike Evans, has been targeted 9.3 times per game. With Evans suspended in Week 10, Jackson should see some of those 9.3 targets go his way. He projects to see 9-10 targets and with his career average of 17.6 yards per catch, Jackson can have a big day even if he only converts half of those targets into catches.
devin knotts - SLOT 4
Overview - Devin has a super-stack of Falcons this week in their home matchup against Dallas. His lineup, that includes Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman is the heart and soul of the Falcons offense. Devin's success hinges on the Falcons. Electing to go with a stack or super-stack in this format can be a game-winning strategy, but it can also be your downfall. In addition to the Falcons stack, Devin has Antonio Brown and Mark Ingram - two capable players who can and likely will put up solid numbers this week. If Atlanta performs well, it will be difficult to beat Devin when it's all said and done.
devin ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
My strategy continues to be unless I get a running back that I am in love with, go wide receiver in the first round and then best player available in the second round. There were six running backs taken by the time I could pick in the second round, and while I was hoping to get McCoy in the second round, Julio Jones is in a pretty good spot this week in what should be one of the higher scoring games of the week. Overall, I like stacking my wide receiver and quarterback, and while I wanted to stack Roethlisberger with Antonio Brown, he went one pick before I could get him, so I had to settle with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones as my stack.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Devonta Freeman is the player who will make or break me this week, as the number of carries he has seen over the last few weeks is much lower than what he saw earlier this season, so I am hoping that in a game in which should be high scoring that the Falcons go back and lean on their running game with Freeman a little bit more than what they have in the past. If he loses playing time to Tevin Coleman that would be crushing considering I have Ryan, Freeman, and Jones.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Antonio Brown at 1.04 is probably my best value. This is a player who is in the best matchup he will be in all season, and could arguably be drafted at 1.01 due to the consistency of Brown and the relative depth at running back this week compared to most weeks.
4. If you could choose one more player not drafted at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
Alvin Kamara is the obvious one as I am very surprised he was not taken, I had thought about taking both he and Ingram in the draft before settling on Devonta Freeman. Since most of my competitors have brought up Kamara, Sterling Shepard is the guy I was surprised to not see taken as he is in a great spot this week going up against a San Francisco secondary that is one of the worst secondaries in football. This should be an opportunity for Shepard as San Francisco has been very good against tight ends that Shepard will be looked upon to be the top option this week for the Giants.
Sean Settle - SLOT 5
Overview - The first thing that sticks out to me when looking at Sean's draft is - what happens if Ezekiel Elliott doesn't play? The rules associated with DRAFT allow players to sub out a player, as long as that player wasn't drafted. If Elliott plays - great. If not, he can always sub in another running back. Whether that's Alvin Kamara, Adrian Peterson, Elliott's own backup Alfred Morris, or someone else. Sean drafted Tom Brady and Brandin Cooks to give him a stack of Patriots who will face a Denver team that has been anything but Denver-like on defense lately. Brady is virtually matchup-proof, but he has a lot of weapons. It's possible that Brady could have a 300 yard game with 3 touchdowns and none go to Cooks. I'm a little leery about this stack, but it could pay dividends. Sean also has Demaryius Thomas and LeSean McCoy at his disposal. Thomas has the fourth most targets over the last four weeks and should see quite a bit of volume. McCoy will face a surprisingly potent Saints defense, however they have allowed a 100-yard rusher in two of the last three games. The factor player for Sean this week is Brandin Cooks. If he has a storng game, so will Brady and that counts double.
sean ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1.What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
This was another week with a steep drop off at running back after the top 4-5 guys. The Ezekiel Elliott case has been maddening all season long, but I went out on a limb and risked the results of his current appeal for this week with my first pick. I followed with LeSean McCoy who is coming off a terrible week but was by far the best running back available. It was at this point that I realized top wide receivers had some tough matchups or terrible quarterback situations. The Patriots have had one of the worst secondaries in the league and Demaryius Thomas is coming off one of his best games of the season. He may have Brock Osweiler throwing to him, but he has a great matchup. After that I stacked the best quarterback and wide receiver duo left on the board. Brady and Cooks may be facing the Broncos defense, but Carson Wentz made them look mortal last week and Brady has a good shot to repeat that.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
This week is full of tough matchups, but it will come down to whether or not Elliott plays. We should hear the results of his appeal by Thursday or Friday and know if he will be playing this weekend. It has been a circus all season long, but he is worth the draft spot if he plays this week. I can count on double digit fantasy points or a zero this week from Elliott.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
The best value comes from Tom Brady this week as he was rated second on the FBG quarterback rankings. I was able to grab him with my second to last pick and then pair him with Brandin Cooks with my last pick. Gronkowski came off the board early and I wanted to get the best QB/WR stack that I could with Brady. I was surprised he was there that late and was not taken by Keith to pair with Gronk.
4. If you could choose one more player not drafted at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
If I could have taken one more player it would have been Drew Brees. Buffalo has been tough on defense all season long, but the Saints have been clicking on all aspects of the offense during their 6-game win streak. I would have drafted Brees if I had taken Michael Thomas or Alvin Kamara but went with Brady and Cooks with what was available. Leaving
Brees on the board may be a mistake but a tough matchup left him undrafted.
James Brimacombe - SLOT 6
Overview - The more I examine James' team the more I like it. I am a bit leery on Melvin Gordon at Jacksonville, but the Jaguars have allowed 5 rushing touchdowns to running backs this year. Gordon is coming off a bye and the Chargers may be in the mood to play spoiler this week. Call it a hunch. Jordan Howard has a good matchup against Green Bay at home and the rest of his team is strong as well. I like Golden Tate at home on the Ford Field turf, no matter who the opponent, but this week it's Cleveland who have allowed 8 touchdowns to wide receivers this year. T.Y. Hilton is a fixture of the Colts offense and should put up good stats no matter who the opponent. The volume will be there, the question is - will he score? James decided to draft Dak Prescott as his quarterback, which is an excellent pick. Atlanta likely won't be a welcome mat for passing production, but Prescott has reached 3 touchdowns or more in five of his eight games this year. I like his chances to produce good value for James' team.
james ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
Picking at the 1.06/2.01 turn I knew that I had to go RB/RB as there wouldn’t be much left come the end of the draft. I went with a Melvin Gordon and Jordan Howard stack relying on their heavy volume of touches hoping that I would have an advantage over the Bell, Gurley, Fournette, and Elliott teams as their RB2 would be weaker. Doing so I was sacrificing the wide receiver position so I knew I had to have some big play guys there who had multi touchdown performance. I went with Golden Tate who gets the Browns defense at home, and with Marvin Jones becoming more involved and making big plays for the Lions I felt that Tate would be overlooked and could be in for a big game. T.Y. Hilton was my leverage play on missing out on the stud Steelers players who both went in the first round. Hoping the Colts have to take shots to Hilton down the field no matter the score in the game.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
That player for me this week would have to be Dak Prescott as he could be without both Ezekiel Elliott (suspension) and Dez Bryant (injury). The Cowboys have a big game against the Falcons where they will have to play at a high level and the offense should flow through Prescott. It looks like there is a good chance Bryant will miss the game so with a lack of big name receiving options, Prescott gets the make or break tag. He does have a nice floor with his rushing ability as he has 4 rushing touchdowns on the season.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I liked the value on T.Y. Hilton as the last player picked in this 6-man draft. Hilton exploded for 5/175/2 last week against the Texans and has big game upside each and every week. Against the Steelers this week he could also be looking at huge game as the Colts could be playing from behind and looking for the deep ball in the second half of the game. Hilton has three games where he has received over 150 yards as they came against the Texans, 49ers, and the Browns.
4. If you could choose one more player not drafted at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
Alvin Kamara was the name that surprised me that went undrafted. Kamara projects out at 13.6 points this week but because he is in a timeshare with Mark Ingram and the matchup against the Bills is somewhat scary. Buffalo is middle of the pack against the run and are coming off a game where Matt Forte rushed 14 times for 77 yards and a pair of touchdowns while Bilal Powell rushed 9 times for 74 yards. There is room for both Kamara and Ingram to produce in this game, and Kamara has a higher ceiling with his big play ability which works perfectly for these 6-man drafts.
PROJECTIONS PREDICT THE WINNER
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