Projecting Ownership Percentage: FanDuel Week 18

Photo: USA Today Sports

With ownership information extinct without Thursday contests in the playoffs, this weekly column takes a turn. Instead, I will focus on cash game strategies for this weekend's slate of games. My exposure rates are built upon how the value tiers lay out from Footballguys projections within each position plus Austin Lee's terrific strength of schedule data.

Quarterback

Russell Wilson has the best normalized matchup by a wide margin, while Brian Hoyer and Alex Smith share stingy ones. I like Hoyer this week, stacking with DeAndre Hopkins in tournaments, but would keep his exposure in the 10-15% range for cash lineups.

Running Back

The running back position is brutal this week without any auto-plays by talent, health, or matchup. Eddie Lacy at the top of the value board is a glaring indicator of the positional state. However, Lacy, Bernard, and West are affordable - allowing Jordan Reed plus an extra high-priced receiver into the same lineup. Tread lightly not to go 'all-in' with a single running back in more than 40-45% of cash lineups this week. West has a stingy normalized matchup, but is one of the better backs on this list insulated from game script.

Wide Receiver

I am far more comfortable with the top of the wide receiver list than running back. The Seahawks tandem (even add someone like Jermaine Kearse to a random tournament lineup rotation this week) in the 25-30% range of exposure shows the strength of the position. Focus on Seattle, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati options to break ties and salary-fit when constructing lineups.

Tight End

There is a strong argument to be full steam ahead on Jordan Reed this week. However, tight ends are very quirky when declaring full confidence by way of exposure rate compared to other skill positions. Comparatively, Reed's normalized matchup is good but not great. Richard Rodgers makes the list with the best matchup of the week by a wide margin despite the tepid Footballguys value projection.

Kicker

As with most weeks, the key at kicker is diversity. Rarely will I recommend exposure beyond 25-30% with a kicker and even with the smaller slate, this week is no exception. A crowded value chart means a homogeneous mix of target exposure.

Defense

Seattle's normalized defensive matchups are top-notch across the board this week. Turning Minnesota into a pass-oriented offense is a best case scenario for Seattle against Teddy Bridgewater. As a result, Seattle gets the tiebreaker and bump in exposure over the Chiefs. Salary should not be an issue here with the lack of appealing running backs at a high cap hit this week.

Example Lineup

The top values on the exposure board fit easily into this lineup for Week 18. Adding a high-priced running back like Adrian Peterson or going with a second elite receiver like DeAndre Hopkins would require a shift down at quarterback and/or tight end.

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