In this feature we are going to look at the GPP contests and offer the top stacks, fades, and ownership projections for each upcoming week.
Fantasy Aces has shown that they know how to put on live events, and this week is the $500,000 FAFC, so for any of you out there that is competing best of luck.
Fantasy Aces is offering a $109 three-week $20,000 prize pool survivor tournament this week which is looking like it should be a great event, for the first two weeks it will be about the top half move on to the next week, culminated by week three which is a 50 person GPP where the top 20 cash and the winner gets $4,900.
Fantasy Aces is also offering some of the more traditional GPP’s this week, as they have a $30,000 Hail Mary with a $22 buy-in, a $10,000 Touchdown GPP with an $11 buy-in, and a $5,000 Hot Route with a buy in of $2.75. If yohaen’t tried their Salary Pro format, this is a format that allows you to not be constrained by the traditional salary cap, as you’re rewarded for going under the cap, and penalized for going over the cap, but you’re still able to do so. They are offering a $5,000 Sluggo Tournment in the Salary Pro format with a buy-in of $5.50.
TOP STACK
Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Ben Roethlisberger ($7,000) and WR Antonio Brown ($6,300)
These two teams had a disappointing week 8 game in that it was 16-10. However, that was Ben’s first game back as a starter after his foot injury. This week, Vegas is predicting a shootout type game, as this has the highest over/under on the board with an over/under of 50. Roethlisberger/Brown showed last week, why week in and week out they are the best stack in the NFL. Brown had eight receptions for 112 yards and two touchdowns. With Adam Jones looking unlikely to go this week, it should make a difficult matchup manageable this week for Brown. They are the top stack, and while they are expensive could win you a GPP.
New York Giants – QB Eli Manning ($6,350) and WR Odell Beckham Jr ($6,450)
The Giants go into Sunday facing Miami’s 22nd ranked passing defense that allows 255 net passing yards per game. Odell Beckham Jr has been a monster receiver in recent weeks with 58 targets in his last 4 games, resulting in 500 yards and 3 touchdowns. Both his ceiling and floor are about as high as you can get this week as he is the clear focal point of the Giants offense that has been very ineffective at rushing the ball this season (only 88.1 rushing yards per game, ranked 28th). While Manning has not put up huge numbers us since his explosion against the Saints, he has still managed to average over 325 yards per game with 5 touchdowns in his last 3 outings. He is priced down at a very affordable salary this week, making him a nice stack with Beckham while not jeopardizing the rest of your budget.
VALUE STACKS
New York Jets – QB Ryan Fitzpatrick ($6,450) and WR Brandon Marshall ($5,700)
The Titans are coming off a week where they allowed Blake Bortles to throw for 322 yards and five touchdowns last week. Allen Robinson was the beneficiary of most of this as he had ten receptions for 155 yards and three touchdowns. The Jets typically are not a team that you think of when you think of prolific passing offenses, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is coming off of two straight games where he reached 29.7 or more points, and is in a great position to have another big game. A big reason for his success is Brandon Marshall, as he has 10+ targets in his last four games, and has scored a touchdown in each of his last five games. Marshall is going to be under-owned due to his price increase this week, but he has 125 yard and two touchdown upside this week.
FADES
Based on price and matchups alone you are going to have some players that are highly owned in Week 13.
Quarterback – Jameis Winston Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,600)
Jameis Winston is getting a lot of love this week and probably for good reason in cash games, but he does not present the upside that you’re typically going to look for in a GPP format. Jameis has thrown for one or less touchdowns in five of his last six games, and even though the matchup is great this week going against an awful New Orleans defense, he just does not throw the ball enough to offset his lack of touchdown production. He has offset some of his lack of passing touchdown numbers with rushing touchdowns, however these aren’t reliable and with the ownership percentage going to be as high as it is, you can fade him and move on to another quarterback this week.
Running Back – T.J. Yeldon Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,700)
T.J. Yeldon is cheap enough that he is going to be intriguing for a lot of people this week in GPP’s. However, don’t be fooled as even though Indianapolis allows 119 yards per game rushing Yeldon is just not a great running back yet. Yeldon only has 20+ carries in one of his last seven games, which for a running back who only has two touchdowns on the season is not a great GPP play. Ideally you’re looking for a player who is going to have 18-20 carries with a good chance at a touchdown. The Jaguars are content throwing to their tall wide receivers in the red zone, and with Allen Hurns coming back this week it even further decreases Yeldon’s value this week.
Wide Receiver – Doug Baldwin Seattle Seahawks ($4,800)
There is a very good chance that Doug Baldwin is the highest owned wide receiver this week as he has been the hottest wide receiver in the league over the last two weeks. Baldwin has scored five touchdowns over his last two games, but is going up against a Baltimore team that has been better of late against the pass, as they have not allowed a 100 yard wide receiver over their last six games. While Baldwin has seen an increase in targets over the last three weeks, he is still only averaging 7 per game, which with that low of targets there is some regression coming as he won’t continue to produce at such a high level with how few of targets he is getting.
Tight End – Travis Kelce ($4,700) Kansas City Chiefs
Travis Kelce’s ownership continues to exceed his production on a weekly basis, and with his price at $4,700 we expect this week to be no different. While the Chargers have given up the 8th most points to tight ends this season, Kelce has had several great matchups over the last few weeks and has failed to produce. At this point, he just does not have the same upside that we saw week 1 or last season. Excluding week one, he only has two touchdowns on the season and has not exceeded 100 yards this year. This is not a great situation to start Kelce until he shows that he is either more consistent or has a larger presence in the red zone.
Defense and Special Teams – Denver Broncos ($3,150)
Derek Carr struggled last week as he threw three interceptions, but don’t fall into the trap of recency bias and expect the interceptions to continue. This was only Carr’s second multi-turnover game and he has six games without a turnover. Denver would be a good play most weeks, however if you are going to spend up to afford the a premiere defense, we prefer Seattle against Matt Schaub or Jimmy Clausen in what is a relatively dysfunctional offense.
HIGHEST Projected OWNERSHIP
Quarterback
Jameis Winston Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,600)
Russell Wilson Seattle Seahawks ($6,250)
Ben Roethlisberger Pittsburgh Steelers ($6,650)
Running Back
Thomas Rawls Seattle Seahawks ($5,500)
Deangelo Williams Pittsburgh Steelers ($5,000)
Lesean McCoy, Buffalo Bills ($5,450)
Wide Receiver
Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears ($5,250)
Allen Robinson Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,400)
Doug Baldwin Seattle Seahawks ($4,800)
Tight End
Travis Kelce Kansas City Chiefs ($4,700)
Delanie Walker Tennessee Titans ($4,800)
Jordan Reed Washington Redskins ($4,800)
Defense and Special Teams
Seattle Seahawks($3,400)
Kansas City Chiefs ($2,950)
Denver Broncos ($3,150)
LOW OWNERSHIP/CONTRARIAN PLAYS
Quarterback
Tyrod Taylor Buffalo Bills ($6,100)
Blaine Gabbert San Francisco 49ers ($5,300)
Johnny Manziel Cleveland Browns ($5,200)
Running Back
Jonathan Stewart Carolina Panthers ($5,300)
Devonta Freeman Atlanta Falcons ($5,800)
Shaun Draughn San Francisco 49ers ($4,750)
Wide Receiver
Eric Decker New York Jets ($5,000)
Brandon Marshall New York Jets ($5,700)
Odell Beckham Jr New York Giants ($6,450)
Tight End
Gary Barnidge, Cleveland Browns ($4,650)
Julius ThomasJacksonville Jaguars ($4,500)
Ben Watson New Orleans Saints ($4,450)
Defense and Special Team
New York Jets ($3,000)
New England Patriots ($2,800)
Green Bay Packers ($2,850)