In this feature we are going to look at the GPP contests and offer the top stacks, fades, and ownership projections for each upcoming week.
Fantasy Aces has shown that they know how to put on live events, and this year they are stepping their game up with a $500,000 FAFC that is going to be held in Newport Beach, California. They have two different qualifiers this week one at the $109 price point with a maximum of 250 entries and the other at the $535 price point with a maximum of 80 entries which pays two tickets.
If the Live Events aren’t for you, they’re also offering a $30,000 guaranteed tournament at the $22 price point with maximum entrants of 1,510. They also have a $10,000 guaranteed tournament at the $11 price point with a maximum of 1,020 entries. If you haven’t tried their salary pro format, this is a format that allows you to go over or stay under the cap starting with positive points instead of 0 if you stay under and starting with negative points if you go over. They have a $5,000 Salary Pro Sluggo tournament with an entry fee of $5.50
TOP STACK
New England Patriots – QB Tom Brady ($7,600) and TE Rob Gronkowski ($5,850)
In their last outing against the Bills in Week 2, the Patriots lit up the scoreboard with 40 points behind Tom Brady’s season high 59 pass attempts and 466 passing yards. Buffalo has been much tougher on the run than against the pass this season, so it is understandable as to why Belichick would choose to focus on his passing game. LeGarrette Blount will take over starting duties, and he has been absolutely atrocious against Rex Ryan defenses in his career. New England should again rely heavily upon their pass attack, and with Julian Edelman now sidelined, Rob Gronkowski should be in for an even higher number of targets. He had success in their last outing against Buffalo with 7 receptions for 113 yards and a touchdown, and while we expect Buffalo to focus on taking Gronkowski out of the game, he should still get plenty of opportunities to make plays as New England’s top target.
VALUE STACKS
Detroit Lions – QB Matthew Stafford ($6,300) and WR Calvin Johnson ($5,250)
The Lions face off against a very bad Oakland pass defense ranked next to last in passing yards per game allowed. We saw the Steelers explode on Oakland’s pass defense 2 weeks ago, and with as bad as the Lions’ rushing attack has been, we expect to see some heavy reliance on the passing attack to keep this game close. Stafford has struggled with turnovers all season, but he put up a decent score last week with 242 yards and a touchdown against Green Bay. Calvin Johnson has seen very consistent receptions and yardage all season, but his touchdowns simply haven’t been as often as we’d like with only 3 total touchdowns on the season. If Johnson was ever poised for a bounce back, this would be the game as it is his best matchup of the year. Vegas expects this to be one of the highest scoring games of the week, and we see Stafford looking to Megatron early and often.
QB – Derek Carr ($6,700) and WR – Michael Crabtree ($4,800)
Derek Carr has been on fire, passing for the most touchdowns (10) of any quarterback in the past 4 weeks with 3 games over 300 yards. Oakland faces a Detroit passing defense that is allowing a league-high 70% completion rate and 260 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks in a game with the highest O/U of the week at 50. With Amari Cooper drawing top cornerback Darius Slay, we look for Michael Crabtree to have a ton of opportunities—a likely candidate to continue the 7-game streak of at least 79 yards and a touchdown that Detroit has allowed to an opposing wide receiver this season. Crabtree has been just as productive as Cooper all season, so his cheaper salary and preferable cornerback matchup makes him out preferred option to stack with Carr in this juicy game.
HIGH RISK STACKS
Denver Broncos – QB Brock Osweiler ($5,000) and WR Demaryius Thomas ($5,300)
Brock Osweiler will start the first game of his career in relief of Peyton Manning in what will be the coldest game of the week in Chicago. While the Bears pass defense is ranked 4th in the NFL, they have allowed 17 passing touchdowns while generating only 5 interceptions and a league 5th fewest 15 sacks. Demaryius Thomas had 7 of his 10 targets last week come with Osweiler as quarterback, showing some great chemistry between the two. Emmanuel Sanders should again be relatively limited in this game, which should bode well for Thomas’ upside as he will be heavily relied upon. Osweiler is an all-out wild card, especially considering the cold weather expected in this game. However, with his near-minimum price and an affordable salary from Thomas, this stack could pay big dividends in a tournament while allowing you to pay up for other high potential options.
FADES
Based on price and matchups alone you are going to have some players that are highly owned in Week 5.
Quarterback – Carson Palmer Arizona Cardinals ($7,000)
This is one of the higher over/unders in the slate with it currently sitting at 48.5. The Cardinals are facing a Bengals defense that is allowing 261 passing yards per game which is 21st in the NFL. The issue with Palmer this week is that he is going to be relatively highly owned due to the matchup and two of his top three wide receivers are questionable for this game. If Michael Floyd and John Brown are unable to go, Palmer will have no one to throw to, and even if they play they won’t be 100% for this game.
Running Back – Darren McFadden Dallas Cowboys ($4,850)
Darren McFadden is in a great matchup this week against a Miami team that has allowed 135 yards rushing per game which is the second worst run defense in the NFL. However, Darren McFadden is banged up and is questionable with a groin injury. While we expect McFadden to play, he has only had 3.8 yards per carry so far this season and has only scored two touchdowns. The price and matchup are great, we just do not feel that McFadden has the upside that you are looking for to win a GPP.
Wide Receiver – Julio Jones Atlanta Falcons ($6,400)
None of the wide receivers are in great spots this week as they all have difficult matchups. This week, Julio Jones gets matched up against Vontae Davis this week which limits Jones’ upside. We recommend fading Jones and going with some cheaper options this week as $6,400 is a significant portion of your salary and limits your ability to spend up elsewhere.
Tight End – Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers ($4,900)
Antonio Gates is going to be highly owned this week as his price still refuses to go above the $5,000 threshold. Phillip Rivers receiving options is dwindling by the week which is also going to drive up the ownership percentage of Gates with the thought process that he will see additional targets compared to most weeks. The issue is that Kansas City is the second best team against the tight end position which is not the time to target what will likely be the highest owned tight end on the slate. Gates can be used in your cash games, but with how highly owned he is likely to be we are recommending going in a different direction in a GPP.
Defense and Special Teams – Carolina Panthers ($3,150)
Carolina is third in the league in takeaways with twenty so far this season. They are in a great matchup this week against Washington, but the issue is that there are two defenses who are better spots with Seattle and the Jets. We do not recommend Carolina as even though they are in a great matchup this week we are recommending only starting those two defenses this week.
Highest Ownership
Quarterback
Derek Carr Oakland Raiders ($6,700)
Matthew Stafford Detroit Lions ($6,300)
Cam Newton Carolina Panthers ($6,800)
Running Back
Charcandrick West Kansas City Chiefs ($4,950)
Devontae Freeman Atlanta Falcons ($6,300)
Darren McFadden Dallas Cowboys($4,800)
Wide Receiver
Calvin Johnson Detroit Lions ($5,250)
Larry Fitzgerald Arizona Cardinals ($4,350)
Michael Crabtree Oakland Raiders ($4,800)
Tight End
Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers ($4,850)
Jimmy GrahamSeattle Seahawks ($4,500)
Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers ($4,950)
Defense and Special Team
Seattle Seahawks ($3,350)
New York Jets ($3,000)
Denver Broncos ($3,100)
Low Ownership/Contrarian Plays
Quarterback
Tyrod Taylor Buffalo Bills ($5,800)
Russell Wilson Seattle Seahawks ($6,350)
Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers ($7,350)
Running Back
Chris Ivory, New York Jets ($5,100)
Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,700)
Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers ($4,700)
Wide Receiver
Mike Evans San Diego Chargers ($5,500)
Jarvis Landry New York Giants ($4,800)
Stefon Diggs Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,700)
Tight End
Richard Rodgers Green Bay Packers ($4,250)
Eric Ebron Detroit Lions ($4,150)
Tyler Eifert Cincinnati Bengals ($5,000)
Defense and Special Teams
St. Louis Rams ($3,000)
Miami Dolphins($2,700)
Philadelphia Eagles ($2,750)