High Side by James Brimacombe
Toby Gerhart came into the NFL with very little chance to ever winning a starting RB position. His first four seasons in the league he served exclusively as Adrian Peterson's backup and only a handful of touches was ever expected. Entering his 5th season in the league, Gerhart is set to finally have the starting RB position lined up in his new location of Jacksonville. Life as a career backup is now officially over and with four seasons under his belt mentoring under one of the greatest RB's in NFL history, Gerhart is a prime candidate as a great value pick in fantasy football. He gets a much needed fresh start in Jacksonville and could be key piece in coach Gus Bradley turning the franchise into a respectable one. The Jaguars are a team in transition and with that comes a team that is likely to want to establish a running game and stay competitive throughout the season. They will be looking to establish an identity with a physical running game, and Gerhart is just the guy to do so with his 6-0, 231 lb frame.
In his 4 year career in Minnesota, as a total, he had some decent success and production carrying the ball 276 times for 1,305 rushing yards (averaging 4.7 yards per carry) and 5 touchdowns. He also was very good in the passing game and put up 77 receptions, 600 receiving yards and 3 more touchdowns. With some starting RBs today getting 250+ carries a season, it makes sense to think Gerhart is almost guaranteed that same type of production with a lack of RB depth behind him. If that is the case he could be looking at a 1,200 rushing yard type of season and have plenty of looks at the goal line to punch it in for touchdowns. Gerhart is currently being drafted in the 5th-7th rounds but has a great shot to out perform that based on opportunity and the volume of carries he will see week to week. The only reason he is being drafted so far down the board is because of the unknown factor of what he can do as an every down starting RB.
The same argument and situation was true for Michael Turner when he left the Chargers after four years of being LaDainian Tomlinson's backup. Turner's total statline in those four years in San Diego was 228 carries, 1,257 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns. There was uncertainty when Turner went to Atlanta in year 5 but because of the opportunity there he went on to have a season where he was the #2 fantasy RB and carried the ball 377 times for 1,699 yards and 17 touchdowns. I am not saying Gerhart is going to come anywhere near those numbers of Turner, but he has a legitimate shot at cracking the top 10 RBs by the end of the season.
Low Side by Andy Hicks
Toby Gerhart is likely to rise in ADP given that he will start the season as a clear every down back, with little to no competition for playing time. That's the good news if you fancy taking Gerhart as your RB2 this year. A 5th round price right now, may rise to 4th by the time preseason starts and for mine, I would be very cautious about taking him at all.
To be generous we can call the Jacksonville Jaguars a work in progress. They have a lot of rookies or very young players on the offensive side of the ball, especially on the line and at receiver. There will be a significant learning process here and they need to not only learn, they need to gel as a unit. While Gerhart will be seen as an experienced option who excels as a pass protector, he'll either have a rookie quarterback in Blake Bortles throwing to a bunch of 1st or 2nd year receivers or if Chad Henne holds onto the starting job, Gerhart will be there to try and keep Henne upright just a fraction longer to hit his inexperienced receivers.
Opposing defenses have seen that Gerhart is a tough runner from his time in Minnesota, but stacking the box and making the Jaguars pass will make it difficult for Gerhart to get into any kind of rhythm. It also has to be remembered that Minnesota had a great run blocking line, compared to Jacksonville's 32nd ranked unit from 2013.
We also have to realistically consider how much time the Jaguars will be in a position of authority during games. More than likely they'll be trying to come from behind and while Gerhart will be a good pass protector and receiver out of the backfield, he will need a lot of carries to generate decent fantasy stats. Only 3 times did a back have more than 20 carries for the Jags last year. Maurice Jones-Drew did it twice for a yards per carry average of 1.95 and 3.35, while Jordan Todman did it in week 14 and averaged 4.36. With even more inexperience on the line this year it may take awhile before this unit improves.
Speaking of Jordan Todman, he is the likely backup and proved what he can do in the week 14 game against Buffalo. He doesn't have the size to threaten Gerhart's starting job, but a combination of Todman, 2nd year man Denard Robinson and rookie Storm Johnson all threaten to eat into playing time should Gerhart not be able to dominate opposing defenses. Robinson didn't see much time last year, but the Jaguars are keen to tap into his speed and acceleration. He will be a nice change of pace at worst, while Storm Johnson lacks the speed he is a grinding runner who needs to have a good camp to factor into the mix this year. Gerhart cannot afford to lose any playing time to this group, and I'll be paying very careful attention to training camp news to see how this picture evolves.
The contract signed by Toby Gerhart is indicative of what kind of role he is likely to have. That of a stop gap option at running back, while the team develops the rest of its young roster. In a year or two, I'd expect the Jaguars to go with a running back high in the draft. At that stage Gerhart would provide a year of veteran leadership before giving way to the young guy. His contract is similar to that of Shonn Greene in 2013. Greene was behind Chris Johnson in Tennessee last year and the Titans drafted Bishop Sankey as the 1st running back off the board this year. Gerhart obviously doesn't have a Chris Johnson to compete with, but will be on an inferior Jacksonville unit.
A lot of people are bringing up the Michael Turner situation, but Turner was signed to be the long term future of the club. Turner came in with a new coach after the disaster of the Bobby Petrino era in Atlanta. Turner averaged 5.77 yards a carry behind LaDanian Tomlinson and registered 376 carries in his 1st year with the team. If Gerhart gets more than 1/2 of those carries he'll be doing well.
The upside for him this year is more likely to be another runner who moved after four years as a backup behind Curtis Martin in Lamont Jordan. Jordan went the Raiders in 2005 and became the 7th ranked fantasy back before slowly disappearing from the fantasy landscape in 2006. Jordan's 70 receptions and 11 touchdowns were a big reason for that and while Gerhart will be the clear lead runner, who is a 3-down back, a significant issue for him becoming a high end fantasy pick is the lack of touchdowns that the Jaguars are likely to pump out. At the other end if he doesn't generate the kind of running game Jacksonville are hoping for, he joins a group of sub standard running backs in a group share situation and becomes the 3rd down back. Gerhart owners are likely to be optimistic at the start of the year, but by the end of the year are likely to face disappointment while the Jaguars continue their development.