Taking into account their ADP, which rookie wide receiver is most appealing to you this season?
Andy Hicks: There are a number of things to consider, outside the obvious talent, size and/or speed, if you want your rookie wide receiver to get to the best possible start and onto an expected long NFL career for those playing dynasty leagues.
- Stable coaching environment
- Solid to elite Quarterback
- Solid to elite supporting cast
- Style of Play
There were 12 wide receivers drafted in the first 2 rounds and you should be ecstatic to get almost any of them. To eliminate some of these guys may seem like nit picking, but I only get to choose one guy and I want that to be someone who will be startable in year one and on my roster for at least 10 years if I'm playing dynasty.
- First I'm eliminating the potential coaching problems in the coming year or 2. That takes out Odell Beckham Jr and Jarvis Landry
- Next I don't like the quarterback situations for Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Marquise Lee and Allen Robinson.
- The supporting cast argument knocks out Kelvin Benjamin
- Style of play takes out Paul Richardson.
I'm going to knock out Cody Latimer for this year and for dynasty leagues. This year there are Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Emmanuel Sanders, not to mention Julius Thomas all likely to see more ball. For dynasty leagues we don't know how much longer John Fox and Peyton Manning are sticking around. Latimer probably needs a year or 2, which by the time he is ready they may be finished.
I get down to 3 players to make my selection from: Brandin Cooks, Jordan Matthews and Davante Adams, although I'm sad that Sammy Watkins has an inexperienced QB and a whole regime that may change rapidly with new ownership.
Now I can get down to business.
- Brandin Cooks lacks the size, but is the fastest guy here with a strong supporting cast, an elite QB and a Super Bowl winning coach. He will be playing on a team that scores lots of points and will still only be 20 by the time the season starts.
- Jordan Matthews is quick for a guy his size and has an ideal physique for a receiver. Add in opportunity, a fast paced offense and a strong supporting cast and he looks a good selection.
- Last is Davante Adams who like Cooks has a Super Bowl winning QB and coach, as well as a balanced offense.
Time to eliminate 2 guys:
- Adams will struggle for elite playing time behind an improved run game, the re-signed Jordy Nelson and potentially Randall Cobb with a new contract soon as well. Long term he may have issues getting WR1 stats.
- Matthews definitely has opportunity with Desean Jackson gone, while Jeremy Maclin and Riley Cooper are no certainties to survive past 2014. The niggling feeling I have though is that Nick Foles played out of his skin last year and opposing defenses aren't going to be caught out this year. It will be harder for Philadelphia to repeat or even improve on last year so once expectations aren't met things change in franchises very quickly.
That ultimately leaves me with Brandin Cooks to talk about. At 5 foot 10, he is not the ideal size I'd like in a rookie receiver, but he couldn't have a better opportunity right from the beginning. Darren Sproles is gone. Pierre Thomas and Marques Colston will be or have turned 30 already. Kenny Stills may be Robert Meachem or Devery Henderson in disguise, while none of the others on the roster will have the opportunities Cooks will have. The rookie can either play in the Sproles role or he is a more than capable "normal" receiver. With Drew Brees promising/threatening to play another 10 years and Sean Payton looking like he is in for the long haul as well, expect Cooks to have stability, opportunity and a potent offense. Add that to his blistering speed and receiving skills and you have your rookie Wide Receiver to take this year and in dynasty leagues for many years to come.
Jason Wood: Andy did an excellent job framing most of the rookie receivers. I think where we disagree is his dismissal of Sammy Watkins. The kid is a transcendent player and doesn't need Manuel to be a great passer to thrive. Which elite passer threw to Josh Gordon? Which elite QB threw to Justin Blackmon? Watkins is polished, and will almost certainly be the most targeted player in that offense, regardless of who is under center.
I'm less enthusiastic about Jordan Matthews. Too many mouths to feed in Philly combined with the fact the Eagles don't throw the ball much in Chip Kelly's system.
I'm also more positively inclined toward Beckham for the same reasons I agree with Andy about Brandin Cooks. Both have one dimensional veterans (Randle and Stills) ahead of them who I think can be easily overcome after a few weeks of regular season play.
At his ADP, I find myself taking Kelvin Benjamin in non-PPR and best ball leagues. Carolina is desperate for weapons and Benjamin will be an effective red zone threat given his size and jump ball ability even if other parts of his game need ripening.
Jeff Pasquino: Personally i have no trust in Riley Cooper, and I like the early reports on Jordan Matthews. That said though, I have to focus my attention on Benjamin. I think he is going to be Carolina's WR1 and the first or second target (with Greg Olsen being the other). Targets create opportunity, which is what a WR needs. I can easily see Benjamin with 100+ targets this year and finishing as a solid WR3.
Heath Cummings: I can see Jason's point about transcendent receivers not needing good quarterbacks and I think it's true to a certain extent. I still think that the Bills offense creates a low floor for Watkins, and that floor is too low for his ADP (7.6). At that price you need to be able to count on Watkins as your WR3, which is a tall order for any rookie wide receiver. Last year it took approximately 120 fantasy points to get to Watkins' ADP. That's become more common for rookies as of late, but the last five to produce at that level had quarterbacks named Rivers, Luck, Dalton, Ryan, and Flacco. Not all elite, but all considerably better than Manuel in my opinion.
In PPR leagues, I'm with Hicks. Cooks landed in the best situation with the best quarterback. With Darren Sproles and Lance Moore gone Cooks has an opening to slide right into and lead all rookies in targets in 2014.
In standard leagues I'm more inclined to lean Benjamin for the price. I wasn't a big Benjamin fan coming out but it sounds like he's on the same page as Cam Newton and there aren't exactly a lot of other options in Carolina. Benjamin provides a big red zone target and should even help with the downfield passing game. He also carries very little risk in the 11th or 12th round.
Maurile Tremblay: I hesitate to disagree with Jason about an Eagles matter, but Jordan Matthews is exactly my pick here.
I'm very impressed by Matthews' YouTube highlights -- and yes, I realize how stupid it is to evaluate a player based on his highlights. (His bad plays are never going to be posted on YouTube.) But I'm not talking about the results of plays. I'm talking about how he can get into and out of his cuts at top speed, and how smoothly he catches the ball in stride and immediately turns into a productive runner -- all in one motion. In many ways, Matthews is already a polished receiver, even as a rookie, just as Keenan Allen was already polished as a rookie last year. Matthews' playing style reminds me of Allen's, in fact, except that Matthews is bigger and faster.
Moreover, I would not place much confidence in the observation that the Eagles don't throw the ball much in Chip Kelly's system. Kelly has been in the NFL for only a year. His Oregon teams ran the ball a lot. But Chip Kelly is both creative and pragmatic: he'll figure out what works best and, whatever that is, he'll do it. The NFL is a passing league. The rules are stacked in favor of passing offenses. Moreover, Nick Foles is built to execute a drop-back passing offense better than he is a zone-read option offense. I suspect that Kelly will ultimately find ways to succeed in the NFL by passing the ball a lot, notwithstanding his proclivity toward the run at the college level.
Jeff Pasquino: To echo the sentiments about Matthews, the recent news of Jeremy Maclin having trouble practicing yet again means that Matthews could see a lot more playing time than most people expect.
Stephen Holloway: The abundance of quality rookie wide receivers should produce several different responses to this question. I do not see significant value with the current leaders related to their current ADP, Watkins at 78, Evans at 98 and Cooks at 99. Watkins in my mind is the most talented rookie, but he could be limited this season by an offense that wants to run early and often and a lack of proven quarterback effectiveness. He should be the top target, but production could be less than expectations. Tampa Bay has a new staff and a new quarterback combined with an established primary wide receiver so Evans should be the team's second option at best. Cooks seems like he has the best opportunity of these three, having Brees for quarterback and being in a dynamic offense, but he should remain behind Graham, Colston and perhaps Pierre Thomas and second year Kenny Stills. My choice to outperform their ADP is Odell Beckham, Jr. The Giants are employing a West Coast offense guided by Bob McAdoo and will rely on a lot of short passes, which should be a perfect fit for Beckham. His current ADP has dropped considerably due to his missed practices already this pre-season. If Beckham can get back onto the field in time for the coaching staff to trust him, he could be exciting in this offense.
Kyle Wachtel: I fall in line with the consensus and would be targeting Benjamin over any of the other rookie wide receivers at their current ADPs. A big-time red zone threat with a clear path to become Newton's first option, he's brimming with WR3 upside. With the majority of us favoring Benjamin and the public likely to come around as well, we can only expect that his 11th round ADP will steadily rise throughout the preseason, but he's currently being drafted at least two rounds later than he should be.
Matt Waldman: All decent candidates mentioned above, but Paul Richardson will be one of the three most productive rookie WRs in this class and he's a steal right now. The only rookie with hands as consistent as Watkins in this class is Richardson. He's also the fastest, plays better football in tight coverage than any of the players mentioned above, and he's on an up and coming Seattle offense that is more balanced than people realize. With Percy Harvin and Marshawn Lynch requiring a lot of attention, I believe Richardson will thrive. The coaches have already praised his route running and he has been the star of camp while facing a pretty good Seattle defense.
The only rookie receiver I'd rather have than Richardson in re-drafts is maybe Cody Latimer, and that's only if Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders gets hurt.
Dan Hindery: This may be the rare year where the rookie WRs are actually being under drafted. Combine an exceptionally talented rookie WR class with some incredibly strong landing spots and there is real value to be had in targeting the rookie WRs.
My top target is Kelvin Benjamin. With an ADP in the 9th round currently, he is a steal. Cam Newton has averaged nearly 3,800 passing yards per season his first three years in the league. By all accounts, Kelvin Benjamin is entrenched as the #1 WR and is vying with Greg Olsen to be the top overall target in the Carolina passing game. It is simply difficult to start divvying up the majority of Newton's likely 3,800 yards between Benjamin, Olsen, Jerrico Cotchery and Jason Avant without projecting a huge year for Benjamin. The counter-argument is probably that Newton's lack of weapons will lead to decreased production, but I simply do not buy it. An aging Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn Jr. did not carry Newton to his production. Further, Kelvin Benjamin is a red zone target the likes of which Newton has never played with. Newton's banged up ankle should keep him in the pocket more when the Panthers enter the red zone and Benjamin should be a huge beneficiary as double digit TDs are well within his reach.
The 2nd target is Sammy Watkins. I would have said Brandin Cooks a few weeks ago, but his ADP has been steadily rising by the day. I wouldn't necessarily counsel against Cooks, but he is likely to settle in with an early 6th round ADP which is not outlandish, but not value. Watkins on the other hand is heading in the other direction with his ADP slowly dropping. I assume this is due to the Buffalo offense looking mediocre in early preseason action with Watkins being held catch less. The camp reports on Watkins have been simply glowing however. He is a massive talent and the Bills are going to find ways to get him the ball in space. He is going to get a lot of "cheap" catches on WR screens and the like that will boost his stats. Give me Watkins in the 8th over Cordarrelle Patterson in the 4th all day. I think both have similarly electric talent and Watkins is arguably more polished than Patterson. The QB situation in Minnesota is maybe marginally better, but I still don't see the three to four round gap in ADP as making too much sense.
The third target is Cody Latimer who is available extremely late. His current ADP makes sense when viewed through the lens of immediate opportunity. He is 4th on the depth chart in Denver behind Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Emmanuel Sanders. However, what are the odds that all three of those players make it through the season without injury? Each has dealt with injuries in the past and Welker seems especially brittle at this point in his career as the concussion concern is paramount. It only takes one injury for Latimer to get an opportunity to start outside in Eric Decker's old spot. Latimer is certainly talented enough to take advantage and camp reports on him have been outstanding. At his current ADP, there are very few players with such a clear shot at huge potential production.
James Brimacombe: Kelvin Benjamin has been moving up all my draft boards as I feel he has a chance at a TD everytime the Carolina offense finds the redzone. All the reports of Cam Newton and Kelvin Benjamin being inseparable only drives his current ADP up for me and I am willing to take him a round or two earlier than most just because of the potential touchdown numbers. Other then Olsen he is really the only option in the Panthers passing offense and should see some nice numbers even as a rookie.
Mark Wimer: I am with Jason on Watkins and Benjamin. Both have done well in training camp and preseason and both play for teams starved for a #1 wide receiver. Benjamin in particular has put in extra work with Cam Newton during offseason/preseason and they are reported to be bonding, which can only help Benjamin. I think both of these guys are in great situations and have the talent to do well.
I am also high on Brandin Cooks he has had a phenomenal camp and is in position to challenge for a big role in New Orleans's offense. If Marques Colston's foot flares up again this year Cooks could be in line for a prominent role in New Orleans.