Is Peyton Manning a first-round pick? Why or why not?
Yes by Adam Harstad
The case for Peyton Manning in the first is pretty easy, and has little to do with Peyton Manning himself. The simple fact is that the top quarterbacks are more predictable from year-to-year than studs at other positions. They are less likely to miss time from year-to-year than studs at other positions. At the end of the day, they are often just as valuable as their RB and WR peers, in terms of production over the baseline. In standard scoring last year, Peyton Manning provided a 151 point advantage over the worst quarterback starter, third-highest at any position behind only Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy. Drew Brees provided the 11th-biggest VBD edge, regardless of position. In 2012, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady ranked 10th, 11th, and 12th in season-ending VBD. In 2011, an eye-popping five of the top ten players in season-ending VBD were quarterbacks, including Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees at #1 and #2 overall. You'll note the consistency of the names that keep appearing on this list. There are very few certainties in fantasy football, but the fact that Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning will provide about 100 points above replacement is one of them.
The detractors will argue that VBD is a useful tool, but it's not the end of the discussion. You also have to pay attention to what replacement-level production costs. A replacement-level quarterback costs an 8th round pick, while a replacement-level running back might cost a 3rd rounder. The opportunity cost of drafting a quarterback high, then, is significantly higher. And that's absolutely true. Even if a quarterback produces as much season-ending VBD as a running back or wide receiver, the other two players are both more worthy of a first-round draft pick. With that said, good luck identifying which running backs and wide receivers will produce comparable VBD values to Peyton Manning and the other top-tier quarterbacks. RBs and WRs are much more volatile and unpredictable. According to MFL ADP data, nine running backs were selected in the first round last year, and they collectively averaged just 58 VBD each. Those nine names included franchise-carrying studs like Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, LeSean McCoy, and Adrian Peterson. They also included Ray Rice, C.J. Spiller, Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, and Arian Foster, all of whom finished below replacement level, with only Foster having the excuse of missed time. Meanwhile, the top 3 quarterbacks in the draft were Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning. Brees and Manning, as mentioned, lit up fantasy leagues across the nation, and Aaron Rodgers was having a very strong fantasy season of his own before he was injured.
Gambling on running backs and receivers certainly has a higher upside, as the top players at each position will almost certainly be much more valuable than the top quarterbacks. The problem is that most of the really good bets at those positions are long gone by the end of the first round, leaving a thinner pool with a much lower success rate. Even though his numbers are primed to regress in a big way, Peyton Manning is a very safe bet to produce a strong positional advantage over the rest of the league. There are not many- if any- other players available at the end of the first round for whom you can say the same thing.
No by Jeff Haseley
Should Peyton Manning be a first round pick in redraft leagues? If you're hellbent on selecting a can't miss player in the first round and you like the notion of getting Manning and his 55 touchdown passes, sure go for it, but you're going to have to do your homework on some key players at other positions to make up for the premier talent that you skipped over to take Manning in the first round, preferably the late first.
The question up for debate here is, should you take him that early?
You can win your league whether or not you have Manning on your roster. You can also lose your league with or without Peyton Manning. Yes, it's easier to win with Manning than without him, but you also have to have a strong complimentary core of surrounding talent at other positions to maintain a consistently productive team week to week.
Looking at the VDB angle, Manning scored nearly 140 more points than the 5th ranked quarterback (Philip Rivers) last season. That's almost nine fantasy points more per week than what Rivers brought to the table. Moving down the list, Manning scored 175 more points (11 more per week) than Colin Kaepernick, the 11th ranked quarterback. Scoring 9 to 11 points more than his weekly fantasy opponent equivalent at the quarterback position is not a small margin, that's huge. That's like having an extra RB2 in your lineup every week that your opponent doesn't have. Breaking down this debate so far looks to be in favor of selecting Manning at your earliest opportunity. But not so fast...that was last year. This draft is for this year.
The regression angle - Yes, Peyton Manning is one of the most prolific and consistent quarterbacks in league history, but he's probably not going to reach 55 touchdown passes again. In 2004, Manning had 49 touchdown passes. In 2005 he had 28 and finished with 124 fewer fantasy points. This is not to say Manning will experience a major drop off, but he should at least see enough of a drop to decrease the margin of fantasy points between him and the rest of the competition. Prior to last year, the last time Manning was ranked number one was 2006, which was the only other time he finished first overall among quarterbacks.
Quarterbacks are a dime a dozen - Like last year, there are more quality quarterbacks than there are fantasy teams in the average 12-team league. Only 23 points separated the eighth ranked quarterback from the fourteenth ranked quarterback last year. Thirty points separated third from eighth. In other words, there wasn't a lot of distance between capable every week starting quarterbacks. This means the later you draft a quarterback, the more value you have gained by selecting players from other positions to fill valuable roster spots.
If you decide to draft Manning in the first round, or even early second, you are banking on him putting up similar mind boggling stats from last year. I'm sure people thought the same thing in 2005, the year after he broke Dan Marino's single-season touchdown pass record. Can you draft Manning in the first round? Yes you definitely can, but you will lose out on at least one strong player that you could've drafted with that pick. If you subscribe to the upside down drafting theory of waiting on running backs until after the first three rounds, this may be an option for you. If you have an ace in the hole RB or WR that you are high on that has an ADP in the fourth round or later, taking Manning early becomes a crafty strategy that could wind up paying big dividends. If you think Top 10 value at RB and WR drops off after the third or fourth round, taking Manning early is not recommended.
Even though this contradicts my angle in this debate, I did select Manning in the first round of a recent PPR mock draft among industry peers. This is the team I assembled, including commentary of each pick. 12 team PPR Mock, early June 2014.
