High Side by Adam Harstad
The case against Harvin is an awfully easy one to make. Even looking past his injury history, you have to contend with the fact that he's a receiver who has never had 1,000 yards receiving, playing for a franchise whose last 1,000 yard receiver was Bobby Engram all the way back in 2007. Of course, just because a case is easy doesn't necessarily mean it's right. In this case, analyzing Percy Harvin like he was just another receiver misses what makes Percy Harvin so truly special.
To begin with, Percy Harvin is one of the best and most talented receivers in the NFL, and his career arc to date reflects that fact. As a senior in high school, Percy Harvin dominated, getting graded as the #1 recruit in the entire nation. As a true freshman in college, Percy Harvin did not redshirt, but instead he stepped on the field immediately and dominated, putting up 249 yards and 3 TDs in the SEC Championship and National Championship games to lead his Gators to victory. As a sophomore in college, Percy Harvin dominated, putting up a whopping 1622 yards in just 11 games, a per-game average as good as anything produced by college All-Stars like Justin Blackmon, Dez Bryant, and Michael Crabtree. As a Junior in college, Percy Harvin dominated with 17 touchdowns in just 12 games, a total that again approaches the best seasons of Michael Crabtree or Dez Bryant. Harvin was widely acknowledged as the best offensive player on a team that featured the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, Tim Tebow. He did this all despite being exceptionally young; Harvin was a year younger at the time he was drafted than fellow stars Michael Crabtree, Dez Bryant, Justin Blackmon, Julio Jones, and Calvin Johnson. He was two years younger than A.J. Green and Demaryius Thomas.
After his true Junior season, Percy Harvin entered the draft and the NFL confirmed his dominance when he was selected in the first round by the Minnesota Vikings, despite his migraine problems and having tested positive for marijuana at the combine. Harvin rewarded their faith by dominating at the NFL level immediately, despite his very young age. Percy Harvin had the 2nd best fantasy season in history by a 21-year-old receiver, sandwiched directly between Randy Moss and Larry Fitzgerald. Harvin also made the pro bowl as a kickoff returner, and was named Offensive Rookie of the Year. In his second season, despite his franchise falling apart around him and finishing as one of the bottom 5 passing offenses in the league, Harvin managed to improve his receptions from 4.0 per game to 5.1 per game, and improved his total yardage from 61.6 to 69.6 per game. Harvin finished as the 20th best fantasy receiver despite missing two games. In his third season, Percy Harvin took his game to another level entirely. He solved the migraine issues that had caused him to miss three games in his first two seasons, and finished with 1300 offensive yards, good enough to earn him an 8th-place WR finish in PPR leagues. And somehow, in his fourth season, Harvin actually managed to raise his game from there. Over the first 8 games of the season, Harvin set a blistering pace for 120 receptions and 1480 yards, ranking as the #2 fantasy receiver over the first half of the year in PPR leagues. Both ESPN and Pro Football Focus published pieces arguing that he was a legitimate candidate for MVP of the entire NFL. Several other outlets called him the best offensive player on a team that also happened to feature Adrian Peterson. All told, over his final 16 games as a Minnesota Viking, Percy Harvin produced 112 receptions, 1492 offensive yards, and 11 offensive touchdowns (as well as another touchdown on a kickoff return). And just for fun, Harvin also led the league in average kickoff return yardage both his third and fourth seasons. After the season was over, despite his injury and his reputation as a malcontent, Seattle traded a first, third, and seventh round draft pick for Harvin and promptly made him one of the highest-paid receivers in the NFL with a $60 million contract.
When listed out this way, it's clear that Percy Harvin's entire career has been one of non-stop dominance, at every level, in every facet of his involvement with the team, and at every age. His resume reads like an elite, league-destroying superstar. At age 23, A.J. Green was earning non-stop accolades for his amazing rookie season of 1110 yards and 7 TDs- 200 fewer yards and 1 fewer touchdown than Harvin had at the exact same age (assuming you don't count Harvin's kickoff return touchdown, too). As a 22-year-old rookie, Calvin Johnson had 808 yards and 5 TDs, or 167 fewer yards and 1 fewer TD than Harvin produced at the same age despite missing two games (and, again, assuming you don't give him credit for his kickoff return touchdown). In many ways, Harvin has been a victim of his own success, because he was talented enough to enter the league a year or even two earlier than most other star receivers. When you compare same-age seasons, Percy Harvin has been every single bit as productive from a fantasy football standpoint- if not more so!- as his "elite" peers.
Harvin's young age is one reason why people underrate him, but the bigger reason why they underrate him is because he gets so much of his production in a non-traditional manner. For most receivers, rushing yards are a gadget and an offensive wrinkle. For Percy Harvin, they are a core part of his skill set. You see, if you looked at Percy Harvin's name in the University of Florida media guide, you wouldn't find it under the wide receivers. In college Percy Harvin was listed as a running back, and for good reason; in 2007 and 2008, only quarterback Tim Tebow finished with more rushing yards than Percy Harvin. For his college career, Percy Harvin averaged a reason-defying 9.5 yards per carry on 194 career carries. Percy Harvin almost had as many rushing yards in his college career as Shonn Greene, an RB selected in the 3rd round of the same draft. Critics were quick to suggest that his rushing yards came from playing in a gimmicky offense, and they wouldn't transition to the NFL. Critics were wrong. By age 24, Percy Harvin had already set the NFL record for career rushing yards by a wide receiver (a record formerly held, like all WR records, by Jerry Rice). There were several times during his career where Adrian Peterson was pulled at the goal line, Harvin was substituted in, and he was given a straight handoff between the tackles. Think about that for a moment: Percy Harvin is such a talented runner that Minnesota on several occasions used him as a goal-line vulture for Adrian Peterson. During their time together, Percy Harvin had as many carries inside the 5-yard line as Toby Gerhart. Excluding wildcat players like Josh Cribbs and Brad Smith, since Percy Harvin has entered the league, he has as many carries inside the 5-yard line as every other receiver in the entire league combined. Harvin has 24 carries in the red zone; the next closest receiver is Desean Jackson with 4. To ignore Harvin's rushing and focusing solely on his receiving is to ignore what makes Harvin so special and so valuable. Any analysis that neglects to mention this is as incomplete as an analysis of Cam Newton that talks only about his passing numbers.
All of that rushing production was in Minnesota, though. Will Seattle take advantage of Harvin's rushing skills? We have several reasons to believe that they will. The first reason is that Pete Carroll has desperately wanted Percy Harvin ever since he was a senior in high school. Carroll, then the head coach at USC, recruited Harvin hard and came very close to landing him. In Harvin's absence, Carroll got busy practicing how to use such a versatile weapon with Reggie Bush, who is perhaps the closest comparison to Harvin as a player that you'll find in the league. When he got a chance to trade for Harvin in the pros, Carroll didn't hesitate, and he spent the entire offseason talking about how excited he was to unveil Harvin as part of their offense, and how creative they were going to be. The second reason to believe that Seattle will use Harvin as a rusher is simply that Seattle has already shown as much. In his limited action last year, Harvin had more yards rushing than he had receiving, including finishing the superbowl as the leading rusher on either team. The third reason to believe that Harvin will get his share of the rushing pie is that offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell is already talking about reducing Marshawn Lynch's workload rushing the ball. He is saying that the Seahawks want to be more of a "running back by committee". Do you think there might be a place in that committee for the electric receiver that averaged 9.5 yards per carry in college and averages 6.6 yards per carry for his career in the pros, who already owns the record for career rushing yards by a WR? I certainly do.
Seattle has struggled to produce a 1,000 yard receiver in the past, but it has consistently gotten 900+ yards out of far inferior talents than Percy Harvin, and as Russell Wilson continues to grow as a player, Seattle will continue to make the offense more and more centered around him. Even if Seattle remains one of the most run-heavy teams in the league, Harvin should be able to easily eclipse Golden Tate's 900 receiving yards last season. And for Percy Harvin, 900 or 1,000 yards is really all he needs to outperform his current draft position, because he's likely to add another 200 yards rushing. If he stays healthy, Harvin is a very safe bet for 1100-1200 yards and 8-10 touchdowns. As for upside... in PPR leagues, Percy Harvin scored more fantasy points in his last 16 games in Minnesota than Josh Gordon scored in his last 16 games in Cleveland. That's not bad upside for a guy currently being drafted in the 4th round as the 15th receiver off the board.
Low Side by Mark Wimer
Percy Harvin is currently viewed as the lead, starting wide receiver for the Seahawks, especially given the offseason departure of Golden Tate for Detroit. Though Harvin struggled with his hip injury throughout 2013 and only appeared in one regular-season game (with one target for 1/17/0 receiving), many in the fantasy community are excited at the prospect of a healthy Harvin leading the Seahawks' receiving corps during 2014. He certainly had some big plays during the playoffs last season - but only recorded six targets for 4/26/0 receiving during the post-season tournament. In all, Harvin has 5/43/0 receiving as a Seahawk so far, a very slender sample of catches on which to base extravagant expectations for his performance during 2014. Most fantasy leagues don't award fantasy points for plays in the return game, which is where Harvin really excelled in his limited work during 2013.
As you can see, I am not one of the Harvin enthusiasts this season, viewing him as essentially a more-risky-than-usual number three fantasy wideout, ranking him at #25 on my fantasy wide receivers' board as of June 4, 2014. Beyond the fact that Harvin has missed 22 regular season games over the past two years due to his injury woes, the environment that Harvin will labor within during 2014 won't be conducive to top-20 statistics this season.
Consider the following facts about Seattle during Pete Carroll's tenure as head coach.
During 2010, the last year that Matt Hasselbeck started at quarterback for the Seahawks, the team went 7-9 while attempting 544 passes vs. 385 rushes (58.6% passes vs. 41.4% rushes on offense). During 2011, while Tarvaris Jackson played the majority of snaps at quarterback, the Seahawks had 509 pass attempts on offense vs. 444 rushes (53.4% passes vs. 46.6% rushes), and the team again went 7-9, missing the playoffs.
With the arrival of Russell Wilson to the team in 2012, the offensive tendencies were reversed, leading to an 11-5 record and a playoff berth. The Seahawks attempted 405 passes during 2012, vs. 536 rushes (43% passes vs. 57% rushes). The strong tendency towards running the ball continued last season, with 420 passing attempts vs. 509 rushes (45.2% passes vs. 54.8% rushes). The Seahawks went 13-3 during regular season and crushed Denver in the Super Bowl.
An old saying goes like this: 'If it ain't broke, don't fix it!'. Given the great success the Seahawks have had running the football and leaning on their excellent defense to win games, I don't expect to see this team suddenly start to pass the ball more frequently than we've observed so far during the Russell Wilson era in Seattle. What all this means is that Harvin's slice of the receiving pie in Seattle isn't likely to garner enough targets to allow Harvin to significantly exceed his previous career-best mark of 87/967/6 receiving (11.1 yards per reception) that we saw during his 16-game campaign during 2011, while he was with Minnesota.
In fact, reviewing the top Seahawks' receiver during each season of the Carroll era, there is a striking profile that emerges: none of the four players who led the Seahawks in receiving over the past four seasons managed more than 65 receptions and none of them managed to cross 900 yards receiving.
Mike Williams led the team in 2010 with 65/751/2 receiving; Doug Baldwin was the lead receiver in 2011 with 51/788/4; Sidney Rice was the top Seahawks' receiver in 2012 with 50/748/7; and Golden Tate led the team last year with 64/898/5 receiving. Harvin has a career average of 11.8 yards per reception (a statistic that belies his usual profile as 'a threat to take it to the house every time he catches the football'), further dampening his prospects of catching fire as the lead receiver for the Seahawks during 2014.
In short, Percy Harvin has many factors working against him posting a break-out season in Seattle this year. He hasn't been able to stay consistently healthy for years now, which means he has experienced very limited snaps in the Seattle offense/building chemistry with Wilson; he probably won't see enough opportunities to catch the football to catapult up to the top of the wide receiver rankings, due to Seattle's run-first offensive philosophy these days; and his own lack-luster overall performance as a receiver in years past indicates that he won't be able to convert what opportunities he does handle into huge chunks of receiving yardage (at least, not on a regular basis). I'll be avoiding Harvin this year in my redraft fantasy leagues unless he comes at a steep discount, which probably means he won't be on any of my fantasy teams this year as many are more optimistic about Harvin's potential in Seattle than I am.
Mark and Adam also engaged in a little post-writeup banter:
Mark Wimer: Adam, it is true that the case against Harvin is easy to make - that's because he's an average receiver (at best) at the NFL level. Like Desmond Howard, he is special in the return game, but that skill set is not usually rewarded in most fantasy leagues.
Regarding his rushing prowess, on a team with Marshawn Lynch, Robert Turbin and Christine Michael, I don't anticipate Harvin getting more than the occasional gadget play as a rusher.
Adam Harstad: Average receiver at best? In 2012, PFF graded him as the 10th best receiver in the league... despite the fact that he missed half the season. He finished the year with the highest per-game and per-snap grade in the league. He earned legitimate MVP buzz from multiple outlets. Seattle traded a 1st, 3rd, and 7th round pick for him and signed him to a $60 million contract. Percy Harvin scored more fantasy points at age 21, 22, 23, and 24 than A.J. Green or Dez Bryant. You and I have a very different definition of "average", my friend.
Minnesota didn't use him in traditional WR ways, but he was absolutely lethal. He was the most deadly player in the NFL with the ball in his hands, and averaged a ridiculous 8.7 yards after the catch per reception. He averaged the 4th most yards per route run, right between Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall, despite being the focal point of defensive game plans. Vikings QBs had a passer rating over 100 points when targeting Harvin, a full 30 points higher than any other Vikings receiver.
Guy's a stud. No two ways about it. Absolute monster. He doesn't look like your typical prototype receivers, but that's because there aren't any other guys like him. No one else can do what Harvin does, stress a defense in the ways that Harvin stresses it. Regardless of what he looks like, his production is eye-popping, jumps-off-the-page, among-the-best-in-NFL-history elite.
I do agree that it seems unlikely that Seattle will give Harvin much in the way of rushing attempts with Lynch and Michael around. I mean, that'd be almost as unlikely as if Percy Harvin wound up finishing the Superbowl as Seattle's leading rusher or something...