Is Montee Ball a top-10 running back? Why or why not?
Yes by Jeff Haseley
There is plenty of reason for optimism surrounding the fantasy prowess of second year Broncos running back Montee Ball. He is expected to be the team's primary ball carrier after Knowshon Moreno departed for Miami in the off season. Last season, the Broncos scored the most points (606) in NFL history and Moreno finished as the 5th best fantasy running back. It is not inconceivable to assume that Ball will see a dramatic increase in touches in 2014. There is some concern that Ball may struggle to be a consistent pass protector, because he is young and still learning that particular role in the offense. Any truth to that would decrease his number of offensive snaps. The rebuttal to that thought is to revisit his success in the second half of the season and playoffs. He showed coach John Fox that he can be a reliable contributor as a weapon, but also a key participant in protecting Peyton Manning. You can be sure that Ball will be monitored and tested in training camp as well as the preseason when it comes to pass protection schemes. Any such concern should be a non-issue by week one of the regular season.
This faceoff discusses whether or not Ball will be a Top 10 running back in 2014. In order for that to happen, he needs to score around 200 fantasy points in a standard league format (non-PPR). In Peyton Manning's last five full seasons, his team averaged 14 rushing touchdowns. The way the Broncos offense can put up points, it's not far-fetched to assume Ball, as the lead back, will reach 8-9 rushing touchdowns, if not more. Last year Ball averaged 4.7 yards per carry compared to Moreno's 4.3. If that number stays the same, Ball's rushing yardage could reach upwards of 1,175 yards with 250 carries (15.6 carries a game). That doesn't equal 200 fantasy points though. He would need to top 300 receiving yards, which is about 40 receptions, based on his 7.3 yards per receptions average.
- 9 rushing touchdowns = 54 FPs
- 1,200 rush yards = 120 FPs
- 300 receiving yards = 30 FPs
- Total FPs = 204
That looks awfully feasible for the leading running back on a team that scored 71 offensive touchdowns last season. Make no mistake, Ball will need to be the Broncos bellcow back to reach top 10 status, but with little competition for carries, that looks like a foregone conclusion. Coach Fox has a history of holding back the involvement of rookie running backs, but once they can create a foundation of reliability and production, he has no problem leaning on them. The 2014 season is setting up nicely for Ball to have a breakout year and if all goes as planned, a Top 10 fantasy season.
No by Andy Hicks
It is very easy to see the upside for Montee Ball. Knowshon Moreno and his 1038 rushing yards, 60 receptions and 13 touchdowns from last season are gone. Montee Ball has been anointed as the starter and ran very well down the stretch and into the playoffs.
There are numerous concerns I have regarding his prospects this year:
- He needs to be a reliable pass protector
- He fumbled at a very high rate per touch last season
- On a similar theme to the point above, his hands out of the backfield are average or worse
- The schedule, especially early on, is brutal
- His tendency to get stuffed behind the line
- His inexperience
- His ADP
Before I get into too much detail, Ball is going to have to be a RB1 to live up to his fantasy draft slot. He will cost you anywhere from a late 1st to a 2nd round pick. You cannot afford for this pick to be a bust. Unfortunately as well as possibly living up to his draft slot, Ball has a very high bust threshold.
Let's examine where things can go wrong. Everyone can basically see that Peyton Manning is the difference between the Broncos being a Super Bowl contender and being an also ran. Pass protection will be vital in keeping the 38 year old future hall of famer on the field. Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball could not do this in 2013, so Knowshon Moreno was entrusted with this role. Sure it can be seen as a good sign that Denver let Moreno go, but Ball still has question marks on his ability to keep opposing defenses away from Manning. While Hillman, C.J. Anderson or whoever rises up the depth chart are also question marks, none of them are being taken as RB1s.
Adding to Ball's questionable pass protection is his hands out of the backfield. He dropped numerous simple receptions and fumbled another. He will get nowhere near the 60 receptions Moreno had and stands a good chance of seeing minimal work on 3rd down. If he loses out here, his chances of landing as a RB1 becomes even more difficult. While becoming Mannings outlet will be fantasy useful, we need to carefully monitor news out of training camp this year as if there is a clear role for Hillman, Anderson or whoever as a 3rd down back, then Ball almost cannot be a fantasy RB1.
This leaves Ball as a runner to look at. While Denver were pleased with his performance over the last half of the season, he was stuffed 10 times behind the line of scrimmage in his debut season and there have been concerns about his ability to get the hard yards. Getting easy yards when opposing defences are more worried about Peyton Manning would be fantastic for most backs, but if he cannot get the job done in short yardage situations then Denver will have to look elsewhere. To take this even further, if we examine some of the team performances last year, Denver didn't really face many strong run defenses. That changes significantly in 2014. Let's just look at who Ball will face in the first 6 games of the season. 4 playoff teams, Arizona and the Jets. Of those 4 playoff teams they include Seattle who allowed Ball 6 carries for 1 yard in the Super Bowl and the San Francisco 49ers. If Ball can come through this rough stretch with a solid reputation, then he will have sold me, but for those of you who are going to pay a 1st or 2nd rounder on him can you afford for him to struggle here?
Now to finish up, he had a very high fumbling rate on his limited touches last year and while he improved as the season wore on, until he can prove that he has this issue under control then I'd be wary of investing too high a pick on him. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out that fumbling and pass protection failures will see Ball quickly move down the depth chart, especially if he cannot reliably catch the ball out of the backfield or get the hard yards when required. Add in that tough start to the season and I would be very wary of taking Ball in the 1st or 2nd round.