What position is the deepest this year? How does this depth change your strategy at this position?
Jeff Pasquino: There's no doubt in my mind that it is quarterback, although you can make the argument wide receiver is also very deep. The problem I have at wide receiver is that WR40 is not nearly the same value as WR15, so the tiers matter. I would much rather have three Top 20 wide receivers and then go after QB9-12 for my starter than go after a quarterback too early. Only in heavily favored quarterback leagues (such as six points per touchdown pass) would I consider a Top 4-5 guy in the first 4-5 rounds. Otherwise, I am likely to hold off at quarterback until 8-10 are off the board and get my starter then. That allows me to get top running backs, wideouts and hopefully a stud tight end in the first 7-8 rounds.
Jason Wood: It really depends on what you mean by 'deep.' To my mind, it implies a position where the replacement value is at or close to what would pass as a starter at the position. For example, if you think there are 10 receivers that will give you close to WR24 production...that's deep. Similarly if you see six or seven quarterbacks that you believe will be close to QB12, that's deep. As Jeff pointed out, it's hard to see how WR and QB wouldn't be everyone's answer. While I don't agree with Jeff about the need to grab one of the elite quarterbacks (I think the top 3 Qbs are all worth their ADPs if not worth going earlier), I do agree with him that quarterback will have more viable options on the waiver wire than any other position.
Andy Hicks: I'm like Jason and Jeff, it depends on how you define deep. If we are talking elite talent then the RB1 pool is very shallow, but RB2 options are in my opinion very deep this year. Because of the evolution of the passing game and the decline of franchise backs, we are seeing many teams utilize 2 or even 3 running backs that appear on fantasy radars. There are also a lot of uncertain situations that may become clearer over the coming weeks, but most won't and will be full blown committees all year long. I can only see 8 to 10 teams with a clear lead back, half the teams will have 2 backs with fantasy worthy contributors and the other quarter of teams are likely to be committees involving 3 guys. That will see a lot of running backs in the RB11 to RB36 area that are going to contribute.
My goal when drafting is to get one of the top guys, but If my draft slot dictates I miss out, then I'm happy to load up in the rounds 4 to 9 area with at least 4 of these guys. By then I should have 2 elite wide receivers and either an elite tight end or quarterback. As running back is a high turnover position, I am then not so worried about losing a 6th rounder as I am a 1st rounder. The waiver wire usually has a few running backs worth grabbing throughout the year, so you have to be on your game to get them if the backs you pick don't work out.
Dan Hindery: QB and TE seem to be the two deepest positions in 2014.
At QB, the older guys are playing at a higher level much later in their careers than in past generations. Players like Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and others in their mid-late 30s are still playing at an incredibly high level. We have also seen a tremendous influx of young talent over the past few years at the position with players like Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson and others making an early impact. Add it all up, and there are at least 14 QBs who I would be comfortable with as my starter. The players ranked #11-14 at QB currently are Tony Romo, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson and Jay Cutler. Any of these players is a solid enough option as a starter. Furthermore, while I would be less comfortable with the next tier of QBs as my starter (Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Andy Dalton), I certainly wouldn't panic if I had to rely on one should I get hit by a run of people drafting backup QBs early.
Thus, my strategy at QB in 2014 is to wait until the 9th round or so and grab any one of the top 14 QBs (though I have a slight preference for Romo). The only exception to this would be if Rodgers, Brees or Manning slid into the late 3rd or later. At that point, I would consider the value too much to pass up.
At TE, I see the numbers working out almost identically. There are at least 14 TEs that I would be comfortable owning as my #1 guy at the position. The players currently ranked #10-14 by the Footballguys Staff are Martellus Bennett, Zach Ertz, Charles Clay and Tyler Eifert. I would happily run one of those guys out there week 1 and feel confident about my chances at the TE position.
Overall, my strategy at TE is to grab one of the top two guys near their ADP (Jimmy Graham in mid-late first or Rob Gronkowski in mid-late 2nd) if I am able to. I feel they provide enough of an edge at the position to justify the high price. However, if I miss out on those two players, I will wait until quite late in the draft to add a player like Ertz or Eifert. I will likely not own any of the mid-range TEs like Jason Witten or Vernon Davis this season.
Ryan Hester: I agree with Andy's strategic concepts in terms of loading up on committee running backs who could hit, but my reasoning is different. I believe that wide receiver is the most important position in fantasy football this season. In every league, at least two receivers must be started. In some leagues, owners can start as many as four, placing the position in high demand.
The talent at the position is deep in terms of players who can contribute, but the truly predictable stars at wide receiver are as few as the "stud" running backs (about five at each position). However, the five-to-seven elite receivers are available at a slight discount, which could even allow owners drafting late in Round 1 to scoop up two of them. In addition, I believe that the 6-12 group at receiver has a narrower range of potential outcomes than the running backs in that same group.
As odd as it may sound, the running back position not being deep is why I recommend eschewing early round running backs outside of the elite four. As Andy said, grabbing a number of backs in the middle rounds and then using the waiver wire could give owners as much chance of putting together a solid running back corps as picking backs in Round 2 and Round 3. So I would rather ensure that my wide receiver is deep and good at the top by selecting receivers early.
Matt Harmon: To bring a different perspective from those already presented, I'd argue that wide receiver is deep this season. While I've generally been in favor of stacking two likely WR1 candidates in the first three rounds--Dez Bryant and Jordy Nelson being a personal favorite--I'm fine with taking running backs if the value is too good to pass up. It's not my preferred strategy, but if I have to adjust, the depth at wide receiver makes it more tolerable. You can acquire several players who can be comfortable PPR WR1s in the fourth round like Michael Floyd, Roddy White, Victor Cruz and Michael Crabtree. Everyone who follows my work knows I am just as high on Cordarrelle Patterson in that area as well, but that isn't as certain a proposition. A few round later you can comfortably land receivers in favorable spots, like Torrey Smith and Emmanuel Sanders, who are bound to outperform their ADPs. Reggie Wayne and Marques Colston are being overlooked because of age and perceived declines, but should still produce. Even in the double digit rounds you can snag receivers who might approach the century mark. Names like Dwayne Bowe, Justin Hunter, Greg Jennings, Markus Wheaton, Kenny Stills, Jarrett Boykin and Doug Baldwin all feel like good bets there.
Of course, anytime you're arguing that a position is deep, it all comes back to picking your spots. You can make an argument that any position is deep if you select the best players in each tier. Yet, the wide receiver group provides plenty of depth if you play your cards right.
Maurile Tremblay: "Kickers are the deepest position." -- Mike Herman
Chad Parsons: In start-one leagues, quarterback is the deepest this season. When Tony Romo, Russell Wilson, Jay Cutler and Tom Brady are fringe starting options according to ADP, why not wait? All four have top-half QB1 upside. Going even farther down in ADP, Philip Rivers, Ryan Tannehill, Ben Roethlisberger, and Alex Smith are a few more quality targets. Quarterbacks have a more predictable floor each week than other positions and lower-ranked options see a significant upswing based on a positive matchup. With a singular starter, the demand is lower, the waiver wire (outside of very deep rosters) is stocked with acceptable options (or better), and the trade market for a quarterback is tepid compared to running backs and wide receivers.
Mark Wimer: I think Jason is right that the Elite Three quarterbacks are well worth taking in the early rounds of the draft (P. Manning, D. Brees, A. Rodgers) as their "X" value will rival other top players at the skill positions.
Also, I have Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas well ahead of the rest of the crowd at wide receiver.
However, once we are past the elite tier at both quarterback and wide receiver I think a viable draft strategy could involve waiting for value to emerge at that respective position, depending on each particular league's scoring parameters. I would NOT suggest eschewing an elite player at BOTH positions- the depth is there to pick one or the other to wait on, but I think you are giving up too much if you stockpile just RBs and TEs.
