A long-held fantasy football theory is that players in the final year of their contract will turn it up as they seek the bigger dollars of a new deal. What are your feelings on this theory? Is it valid?
Jeff Pasquino: I am reasonably certain that this has been debunked. If you look back at a player's performances in the year before a contract season or even the year before that, the numbers do not change much for all positions. While I get the motivation could be there, but a professional football player has motivation to perform every time he straps on the helmet. I don't think that there is much value in targeting a player based on financial incentives. Now, a player in a Keeper or Dynasty league is different, and that is where I would look at the money. If a player is about to get out of a contract and may go to greener pastures, I might target that player's understudy or go after that player if he has been blocked by a stud in front of him (like Toby Gerhart was last year).
Heath Cummings: I'm with Jeff here, contract situations are much more important to pay attention in dynasty than redraft. I think there are a few players out there that may show up to camp in better shape or perform better when there's money on the line, but they aren't in the majority and it's nearly impossible to guess which players they are.
Jason Wood: I want to tear my hair out anytime I see an article about 'contract year breakouts' as it relates to the NFL. It's ridiculous. The NFL has no guaranteed contracts. EVERY YEAR is a contract year. Sincerely. Players routinely outplay their contracts and teams generally lock them up to extensions BEFORE their final year to avoid distractions and having to use a tag designation. Conversely, tons of players with signed contracts are forced to redo their deals and accept less in order to maintain their roles. In the NFL your only as good as the guaranteed money you've received; everything else is up for renegotiation at any time.
Adam Harstad: "EVERY YEAR is a contract year." - Jason Wood
A million times this.
The "contract year" theory posits that players give 100% when a contract on the line. Logically, then, the "contract year" theory must also mean that players are not giving 100% when a contract is not on the line. I don't know too many teams who will feel all that eager to give big money to players who have demonstrated that they aren't going to give their full effort when there isn't a massive payday in the immediate future.
Stephen Holloway: Jason and Adam hit the nail on the head on this topic. Full effort is demanded all day every day or the next man up will gladly take the opportunity.
Andy Hicks: Not much more to add that hasn't already been said. I'm sure there are some players that would be motivated by a big check at the end of a contract, but turnover is high in the NFL and even 1st round draft picks often don't see out their rookie draft contracts. As others have mentioned if players aren't giving their all they get found out pretty quick and are out of the league quick smart on most occasions.
Maurile Tremblay: Also, a year seems kind of arbitrary. Why should players start giving more effort twelve months before their contract expires? Why not 24 months? Or two months?
While I think it's silly to believe that players treat contract years differently from most other years, the reverse phenomenon may sometimes occur. Occasionally, I believe a player will give less effort right after a big payday with a large signing bonus or other guaranteed money. While it's probably rare, I have a few players in mind. (Albert Haynesworth, Jared Gaither.)
Ryan Hester: I totally agree with Adam here (and by extension, Jason too). These are professional athletes who are playing for their future every time they take the field. I will concede some limited examples of players rising to the occasion in certain situations. For instance, if DeSean Jackson has a big game or two against his Philadelphia, the team who let him go for no compensation, I wouldn't be surprised. But to suggest that players aren't trying their hardest all the time isn't wise and seems to display some selection bias by the person/people making those claims.
Mark Wimer: The NFL is very much a "what have you done for me lately?" league. As has been correctly pointed out, guys who don't live up to their contracts will be renegotiated downwards (or cut if the cap hit isn't disastrous) while those that exceed contractual value usually get paid unless there are extenuating circumstances (I don't expect the Browns to give Josh Gordon more $ through an extension even though he was a stud wide receiver last year).