Photo: USA Today Sports
Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta | San Diego | -6 | 53 | 29.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| Kansas City | New Orleans | -6.5 | 50.5 | 28.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| Cincinnati | Cleveland | -9.5 | 45.5 | 27.5 | ++ | +++ | ++ |
| Green Bay | Chicago | -7.5 | 46 | 26.75 | ++ | +++ | + |
| New England | Pittsburgh | -7 | 45.5 | 26.25 | ++ | +++ | + |
| Tennessee | Indianapolis | -3 | 48 | 25.5 | + | + | |
| Detroit | Washington | -1 | 49.5 | 25.25 | + | + | |
| Jacksonville | Oakland | -1 | 48.5 | 24.75 | + | + | |
| Tampa Bay | San Francisco | -2.5 | 46.5 | 24.5 | + | + | |
| Washington | Detroit | 1 | 49.5 | 24.25 | + | + | |
| Denver | Houston | -7.5 | 40.5 | 24 | + | ++ | +++ |
| Buffalo | Miami | -3.5 | 44 | 23.75 | |||
| Oakland | Jacksonville | 1 | 48.5 | 23.75 | |||
| San Diego | Atlanta | 6 | 53 | 23.5 | |||
| NY Giants | Los Angeles | -3 | 43.5 | 23.25 | |||
| Arizona | Seattle | -2 | 43.5 | 22.75 | |||
| Indianapolis | Tennessee | 3 | 48 | 22.5 | |||
| New Orleans | Kansas City | 6.5 | 50.5 | 22 | + | ||
| San Francisco | Tampa Bay | 2.5 | 46.5 | 22 | |||
| Minnesota | Philadelphia | -3 | 40 | 21.5 | ++ | ||
| Seattle | Arizona | 2 | 43.5 | 20.75 | |||
| NY Jets | Baltimore | -0.5 | 40.5 | 20.5 | |||
| Los Angeles | NY Giants | 3 | 43.5 | 20.25 | |||
| Miami | Buffalo | 3.5 | 44 | 20.25 | |||
| Baltimore | NY Jets | 0.5 | 40.5 | 20 | |||
| Chicago | Green Bay | 7.5 | 46 | 19.25 | |||
| Pittsburgh | New England | 7 | 45.5 | 19.25 | |||
| Philadelphia | Minnesota | 3 | 40 | 18.5 | |||
| Cleveland | Cincinnati | 9.5 | 45.5 | 18 | |||
| Houston | Denver | 7.5 | 40.5 | 16.5 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Matt Ryan (Falcons), Alex Smith (Chiefs)
- Running Back: Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman (Falcons), Jamaal Charles/Spencer Ware (Chiefs), Jeremy Hill/Giovani Bernard (Bengals), Knile Davis/Ty Montgomery (Packers), LeGarrette Blount (Patriots)
- Receivers: Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu/Jacob Tamme (Falcons), Jeremy Maclin/Chris Conley/Travis Kelce (Chiefs)
- Defense: Broncos
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Andy Dalton (Bengals), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Tom Brady (Patriots)
- Running Back: C.J. Anderson (Broncos)
- Receivers: A.J. Green/Brandon LaFell/Tyler Eifert (Bengals), Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb/Davante Adams/Richard Rodgers (Packers), Julian Edelman/Chris Hogan/Rob Gronkowski/Martellus Bennett (Patriots)
- Defense: Bengals, Vikings
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Marcus Mariota (Titans), Matthew Stafford (Lions), Blake Bortles (Jaguars), Jameis Winston (Buccaneers), Kirk Cousins (Redskins), Trevor Siemian (Broncos), Drew Brees (Saints)
- Running Back: DeMarco Murray (Titans), Dwayne Washington/Zach Zenner/Justin Forsett (Lions), Chris Ivory/T.J. Yeldon (Jaguars), Jacquizz Rodgers (Buccaneers), Matt Jones (Redskins)
- Receivers: Tajae Sharpe/Rishard Matthews/Andre Johnson/Delanie Walker (Titans), Marvin Jones/Golden Tate/Anquan Boldin/Eric Ebron (Lions), Allen Robinson/Allen Hurns/Marqise Lee/Julius Thomas (Jaguars), Mike Evans/Adam Humphries/Cameron Brate (Buccaneers), Pierre Garcon/DeSean Jackson/Jamison Crowder/Jordan Reed (Redskins), Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders/Virgil Green (Broncos), Brandin Cooks/Willie Snead/Michael Thomas/Coby Fleener (Saints)
- Defense: Packers, Patriots
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Davante Adams
Giovani Bernard
Blake Bortles
Tom Brady
Cameron Brate
Randall Cobb
Tevin Coleman
Chris Conley
Brandin Cooks
Kirk Cousins
Jamison Crowder
Andy Dalton
Eric Ebron
Mike Evans
Devonta Freeman
A.J. Green
Rob Gronkowski
Chris Hogan
Adam Humphries
DeSean Jackson
Julio Jones
Marvin Jones Jr
Travis Kelce
Marcus Mariota
Ty Montgomery II
Allen Robinson II
Aaron Rodgers
Richard Rodgers
Matt Ryan
Emmanuel Sanders
Mohamed Sanu
Tajae Sharpe
Trevor Siemian
Willie Snead IV
Matthew Stafford
Michael Thomas
Dwayne Washington
Jameis Winston
