Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Total | Team Total | Running | Passing | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England | Philadelphia | -9 | 49 | 29 | +++ | +++ | |
| Carolina | New Orleans | -7 | 49.5 | 28.25 | +++ | +++ | |
| Pittsburgh | Indianapolis | -7 | 48 | 27.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Cincinnati | Cleveland | -9 | 43.5 | 26.25 | +++ | ++ | +++ |
| Chicago | San Francisco | -7 | 43.5 | 25.25 | ++ | + | ++ |
| Green Bay | Detroit | -3 | 47 | 25 | + | + | |
| Arizona | St. Louis | -6 | 43 | 24.5 | + | + | ++ |
| Tampa Bay | Atlanta | -1.5 | 46.5 | 24 | |||
| Miami | Baltimore | -4 | 43.5 | 23.75 | + | ||
| NY Jets | NY Giants | -2 | 45 | 23.5 | |||
| Denver | San Diego | -4 | 43 | 23.5 | + | ||
| Kansas City | Oakland | -3 | 44 | 23.5 | |||
| Washington | Dallas | -4.5 | 42 | 23.25 | ++ | ||
| Tennessee | Jacksonville | -2.5 | 43.5 | 23 | |||
| Atlanta | Tampa Bay | 1.5 | 46.5 | 22.5 | |||
| Buffalo | Houston | -3.5 | 41.5 | 22.5 | + | ||
| Detroit | Green Bay | 3 | 47 | 22 | |||
| NY Giants | NY Jets | 2 | 45 | 21.5 | |||
| New Orleans | Carolina | 7 | 49.5 | 21.25 | + | ||
| Seattle | Minnesota | 0 | 41.5 | 20.75 | |||
| Minnesota | Seattle | 0 | 41.5 | 20.75 | |||
| Jacksonville | Tennessee | 2.5 | 43.5 | 20.5 | |||
| Indianapolis | Pittsburgh | 7 | 48 | 20.5 | + | ||
| Oakland | Kansas City | 3 | 44 | 20.5 | |||
| Philadelphia | New England | 9 | 49 | 20 | + | ||
| Baltimore | Miami | 4 | 43.5 | 19.75 | |||
| San Diego | Denver | 4 | 43 | 19.5 | |||
| Houston | Buffalo | 3.5 | 41.5 | 19 | |||
| Dallas | Washington | 4.5 | 42 | 18.75 | |||
| St. Louis | Arizona | 6 | 43 | 18.5 | |||
| San Francisco | Chicago | 7 | 43.5 | 18.25 | + | ||
| Cleveland | Cincinnati | 9 | 43.5 | 17.25 | + |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots), Cam Newton (Panthers)
- Running Back: LeGarrette Blount (Patriots), Jonathan Stewart (Panthers), Giovani Bernard/Jeremy Hill (Bengals)
- Receivers: Brandon LaFell/Keshawn Martin/Scott Chandler (Patriots), Ted Ginn Jr/Devin Funchess/Greg Olsen (Panthers)
- Defense: Bengals
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Andy Dalton (Bengals)
- Running Back: DeAngelo Williams (Steelers), Matt Forte/Jeremy Langford (Bears)
- Receivers: Antonio Brown/Martavis Bryant/Heath Miller (Steelers), A.J. Green/Marvin Jones/Tyler Eifert (Bengals)
- Defense: Bears, Cardinals, Redskins
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Jay Cutler (Bears), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Carson Palmer (Cardinals), Drew Brees (Saints), Matt Hasselbeck (Colts), Sam Bradford (Eagles), Blaine Gabbert (49ers), Austin Davis (Browns)
- Running Back: Eddie Lacy (Packers), David Johnson (Cardinals)
- Receivers: Alshon Jeffery/Marquess Wilson/Martellus Bennett (Bears), Randall Cobb/Davante Adams/Richard Rodgers (Packers), Larry Fitzgerald/John Brown/Michael Floyd (Cardinals), Brandin Cooks/Willie Snead/Ben Watson (Saints), T.Y. Hilton/Donte Moncrief/Coby Fleener (Colts), Jordan Matthews/Darren Sproles/Brent Celek (Eagles), Anquan Boldin/Torrey Smith/Vance McDonald (49ers), Travis Benjamin/Brian Hartline/Gary Barnidge (Browns)
- Defense: Dolphins, Broncos, Bills
