The Rundown: FantasyScore Week 14

Photo: USA Today Sports

As always, what you'll encounter in this article is a list of probabilities for each position reflecting the most and least likely players to achieve value on FantasyScore (either for cash games or GPPs).

quarterbacks

Below are the quarterbacks with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

If I were to have to choose between one of the Top 2 quarterback values this week, it would be Manziel. That's because, although both Cleveland's and San Francisco's pass defense rank in the Bottom 5 when it comes to allowing 40+-yard receptions, Manziel is more of the gunslinger type -- a quarterback whose stats depend on big plays. Gabbert may have hit a 71-yard game-winning touchdown last week, but that's not his M.O.

Among "least likely" quarterbacks, Roethlisberger is my pick to defy the odds, mainly because Cincinnati's best cornerback, Adam Jones, is listed as doubtful on the injury report. Between Dre Kirkpatrick and Troy Hill, Steelers wideouts should be able to roam free, and so Roethlisberger should be able to have no trouble finding them.

running backs

Below are the running backs with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

Given that he needs only 6.0 points to achieve cash game value and 8.0 points to achieve tournament value, C.J. Spiller is a must-play this week. On the flip side, Philadelphia's running backs are the worst values of the week, primarily because the better of the two, i.e., Murray, has been shipped to the bottom of the depth chart.

Also on the bottom of the table, somewhat curiously, is Charcandrick West. With Spencer Ware vulturing goal line carries, it's difficult to see how West could possibly score the 26.7 points necessary to achieve GPP value.

wide receivers

Below are the wide receivers with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

Among the wide receivers most likely to achieve value, I'm hitching my wagon to either Devante Parker or Anquan Boldin. Last week, the former played 90% of Miami's offensive snaps, and the Dolphins-Giants game has the fourth-highest over-under of Week 13. Meanwhile, Boldin is the clear go-to wide receiver for the 49ers, especially since Blaine Gabbert ascended to starting quarterback: The last three games, Boldin's averaged just over 10 targets per game. And, in fantasy football, opportunity is king.

tight ends

Below are the tight ends with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

Aside from his bye, this table has consistently featured Will Tye over the past five weeks (rhyme intended). And yet, I (once again) won't endorse him in cash games. Rather, Austin Seferian-Jenkins fits the bill. Tampa Bay eased AS-J into action last week, but the gloves are coming off; which coincides perfectly with a matchup against a Saints pass defense that ranks dead last in coverage agaisnt tight ends (per DVOA). That said, Tye's fine to play in GPPs.

defenses

Below are the defenses with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

Of the three high-value defenses, I'm inclined to lean on the Bears, primarily because Washington is god-awful on the road. In five such games this season, they've been outscored 162-86, have turned the ball over 14 times, and have amassed a total of 224 rushing yards.

week 14 draft lists

Finally, to supplement the statistics-based strategies I recommended earlier in the season, here are the VBD draft lists you should use for FantasyScore's Draft-N-Go (DNG) games:

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