You guys have a ton of articles.
This statement about Footballguys is a blessing but it can feel like a curse. Our staff delivers insights that change seasons for the better yet realistically, no fantasy owner has the time to read everything we publish in a week.
If this describes you, let me be your scout. Here are five insights from Footballguys articles that I find compelling for the weekend ahead. I'll share what should help you this week, touch on the long-term outlook, and sometimes offer a counterargument.
Titanic weekend?
Unless you're a caricature of a grumpy John Norton or Jene Bramel, you love shootouts. We all love shootouts. The re-match of the Colts-Titans this weekend is one of the top candidates for some fantasy-rich production. This week's DFS Roundtable panel lays it out well.
Phil Alexander: ...the game I'm most interested in stacking is Titans at Colts. The point totals in each of Tennessee's last five games are 54, 60, 58, 78, and 72. Meanwhile, the Colts have allowed at least 26 points in seven of their nine games this season. It's not difficult to fit either Andrew Luck or Marcus Mariota with DeMarco Murray, Delanie Walker, T.Y. Hilton, and Donte Moncrief into the same FanDuel lineup. Rishard Matthews (at least one touchdown in five out of the last six games) is also in play at a still affordable salary.
John Mamula: Phil nailed it with Tennessee's point totals over their last five games. Mariota is playing up to his number two overall draft stock with multiple touchdowns in eight out of 10 games this season. I missed the boat by starting Jay Cutler over Mariota last week. That is a mistake that will haunt me for the rest of the season! My preferred stacking option with Mariota is Walker. But rostering Mariota naked (without a stack) is perfectly acceptable. On the other side, my Colts stack will have either Hilton or Moncrief.
Ryan Hester: Great stuff so far, guys. Does anyone worry about the prospect of two divisional teams facing each other for the first time? Defenses tend to be to adjust to an opponent the second time they face each other. Does that make you pause for Tennessee at Indianapolis?
Jeff Pasquino: I am with Phil on the Titans-Colts clash. That should be a bonanza of offense with how Mariota has been playing and Luck having to throw his team forward to keep the game close. I don't see a problem with defensive adjustments since Indianapolis lacks a defense in general.
Andrew Garda: I'm not worried about Tennessee-Indianapolis being the second time they've clashed. Offenses adjust as well too, and Mariota feels like a different animal than he was back in Week 7. And as was pointed out, Luck has to throw, and he finds ways to produce every time he's out there this year.
David Dodds: In the last four weeks, the worst teams at stopping an opponent's quarterback have been the Colts and Titans. Now they go against each other. I will be playing three players from these teams (the stack + opponent) in GPPs in hopes that this has a possibility of going over 60+. I like all of these combinations:
- Mariota + Matthews + Hilton
- Mariota + Matthews + Moncrief
- Luck + Hilton + Mathews
- Luck + Moncrief + Mathews
I have avoided using Walker in those stacks because Martellus Bennett is way too cheap this week (on nearly all sites).
From a re-draft perspective, Jeff Haseley has three participants highlighted in his Week 11 Fantasy Overview that he believes are underrated.
Marcus Mariota, TEN (at Indianapolis) It may be difficult to put Mariota in the under the radar category, because he has been hot lately and has been the #3 fantasy quarterback since Week 2. Mariota is averaging 2.8 touchdown passes per game over the last 6 games. This week's opponent at Indianapolis has allowed opposing quarterbacks an average of 293 yards passing and 2.7 touchdown passes in their last 3 games. The Colts have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to quarterbacks in that span. This game could yield big numbers for quarterbacks, Mariota included.
Rishard Matthews, TEN (at Indianapolis) - Matthews has scored in three straight games and five of the last six. Marcus Mariota is on fire lately and the Colts have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers in the last three weeks. Game on!
Jack Doyle, IND (vs Tennessee) I've got a feeling that Jack Doyle may have earned his keep as Andrew Luck's go-to tight end threat. Dwayne Allen (ankle) was back last week and had six fewer snaps than Doyle, but Doyle had 5 receptions for 61 yards and Allen had but one catch for 15 yards. I'm leaning Doyle as the better tight end option this week again, plus the Titans have allowed tight end touchdowns in three of the last four games.
Jeff Tefertiller agrees with Haseley on Mariota and adds Delanie Walker to the list in this week's Value Plays:
- Top 200 ranking: 20
- Weekly ranking: 7
- Difference: +13
Mariota played extremely well in the win over Green Bay last week. Fantasy owners are hoping that the game in Indianapolis this week will be just as productive for the sophomore passer. The Colts are the fourth-worst defense in limiting fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. In addition, with the game in the dome versus an Indianapolis team coming off a bye week, we foresee a high-scoring affair.
- Top 200 ranking: 11
- Weekly ranking: 4
- Difference: +7
In his last three games against the Colts, Walker has two games over 20 PPR points and one at 13.8, his worst fantasy performance of the last two seasons. We like his chances of having another big outing against the fifth-worst fantasy defense in limiting tight end production. Walker is coming off a great game last week versus Green Bay and has a chance for another big performance.
Sigmund Bloom also agrees with Haseley that Doyle is a Sleeper:
Jack Doyle (vs TEN) - Doyle could see his role reduced by a healthier Dwayne Allen coming out of the bye, but he has established great chemistry with Andrew Luck and he is revisiting a matchup that he put up a 9-78-1 line against back in Week 7, although Allen was out. Allen might be used more to block the strong edge rush of Tennessee while Doyle attempts to have similar success to his career high catch and yardage game against the Titans the first time around. The Titans have given up tight end touchdowns in three of the last four weeks, so if Andrew Luck looks Doyle’s way in the red zone, he has a reasonable chance of success.
My Advice: First, I am in complete agreement that the Colts-Titans game is rich with fantasy potential. Let's examine all of the "less obvious" players mentioned above.
- Marcus Mariota: The statistical arguments for Mariota are a reflection of the Titans' balanced offense. It's one thing for a team to strive for balance, it's another to do it. The Titans ground game has created wide-open opportunities for Mariota to attack defenses for explosive gains beyond 15 yards of the line of scrimmage and because Mariota is hitting these targets, opponents aren't on steady enough ground long enough in a game to stop either facet of the Titans offense. Mariota's production in an offense with an emphasis on heavy sets is one of my favorite developments of the year because it is counterintuitive to the surface appeal of Mariota's history in spread looks. The fact that Mariota's touchdown rate in recent weeks marries well with the Colts' passing touchdowns allowed reinforces what I've seen on film and why he's a top-tier starter this week.
- Rishard Matthews: I like the results of 4 scores during the past 3 weeks (and 6 since Week 5) and it's also a positive that he's the third-most targeted option in this offense. Since Week 5, he's the No.7 fantasy option at the position. But his lofty standing is built on tying Odell Beckham for as many touchdowns as any receiver during this span. Because the pecking order for targets among Matthews, Tajae Sharpe, and Kendall Wright remains close enough, I'd feel more comfortable with him as my WR3, but I agree he's a must-start for two reasons: the sustained performance of his offense and the Colts defense.
- Jack Doyle: There were statistical naysayers about Doyle about 4-6 weeks ago and they expected he'd return to the role of "extra" in this production called the Colts offense. What I think Bloom and Haseley mentioned about Doyle's value is further enhanced by the fact that Dwayne Allen is actually the best blocking tight end on the team. It's more useful to keep Allen at the line of scrimmage than Doyle. If you're seeking a bargain play in DFS, or own Doyle in re-draft and can't find a tremendously more appealing option as a streamer, I'd stick with the Colt.
If you need some obvious in your life: T.Y. Hilton, Andrew Luck, DeMarco Murray, and Delanie Walker are my four favorite targets among the marquee names in this contest. I'll use Scott Bischoff's Starting Stacks to support my points on Hilton-Luck as the primary matchup, he does a good job of layering stats and observational points from watching the teams:
Andrew Luck ($8,100) + T.Y. Hilton ($7,900) = $16,000
The Colts bring the Tennessee Titans into Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 11 for an AFC South matchup that could have playoff implications. The Titans are 5-5 on the season and the Colts are 4-6 while the Houston Texans lead the division with a 6-3 record.
Vegas likes this game as the highest scoring game of the week as the total has been set at 53 points. The Colts are a three-point favorite at home and have an implied total of 28 points while the Titans have an implied total of 25 points.
The Titans are the league’s No. 24 ranked passing defense as they’ve allowed a shade over 267 yards per game. Also, only two teams league-wide have given up more receptions than the Titans who have surrendered 241 receptions through 10 games.
The Colts and quarterback Andrew Luck like to drive the ball down the field and challenge defenses vertically and that’s exactly where Luck and Hilton can win in this game. The Titans are allowing the third-most passing plays of 20 or more yards and only six teams in the NFL have allowed more plays of 40 or more yards down the field.
Back in Week 7 the Colts took on the Titans on the road and Hilton was targeted 12 times. He caught seven of those passes for 133 yards and a score. In that game, Luck went for 350+ passing yards and threw for three scores.
From a game script perspective, the only way the Colts will move the ball here is via their passing attack. Also, the Titans offense comes into this game on fire and they’ll push the Colts offense to stay in attack mode because of the number of points they’ll put on the board here.
Pivot:Donte Moncrief ($6,500) is a solid option versus the Titans because of the high total and the fact that the Colts will be throwing early and often in this game. He’s been very reliable from a touchdown perspective but hasn’t been producing from a yardage outlook, so you’re relying on his touchdown potential if you roster him.
I don't think this game is like shooting fish in a barrel, but it's pretty close.
Easter Eggs in a Ten-Gallon hat
If you think I'll take any excuse to write about Steve Smith, you're probably right. Sigmund Bloom's Sleepers serves as my enabler this week, although it comes indirectly with his recommendation of Joe Flacco.
Joe Flacco (at DAL) - Flacco has been quiet for most of the season except when he faced Cleveland, notching five of his nine passing scores to date against them. He also hasn’t had a healthy Steve Smith for most of the season. Smith is back and it’s important to point out that once he hit his stride in Week 4, Flacco had 298 passing yards, a passing score, and a rushing score. This week he faces a Dallas defenses that has given up a passing score in every game, including games against Blaine Gabbert and Cody Kessler. A healthy Smith plus a solid matchup means Flacco is a high floor streamer this week.
It led me to wonder if the DFS guys were onto Smith. Bischoff was another good place to look, because of his well-rounded use of data and game study. Sure enough...
Joe Flacco ($7,100) + Steve Smith ($5,500) = $12,600
The Ravens travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys on the road in Week 11. Vegas has the total at 45 and the Ravens are seven-point underdogs on the road. The Cowboys have an implied total of 26 points while the Ravens implied total is 19.
The Cowboys are the league’s No. 21 ranked unit and are allowing a passer rating of 99.4 to opposing quarterbacks. They are vulnerable to intermediate targets as they’ve allowed the third-most completions in the NFL to date with a total of 241 through nine games. They’ve given up 26.8 completions per game which is second-worst in the NFL.
Smith can win in this area of the field and the likeliest game-script outlook points to a large amount of passing game volume from the Ravens as the Cowboys will be up in this game behind the league’s best rushing attack and big plays against a Ravens passing defense that allows an inordinate number of passing scores in relation to their defensive ranking.
The Ravens are missing key pieces up front as All-Pro guard Marshall Yanda is banged up. It is possible that their other starting guard (Alex Lewis) will be out as well. The passing attack will have to keep the Ravens in this game, but they look to get a bit of help as the Cowboys are going to be without starting cornerback Morris Claiborne, while cornerback Orlando Scandrick is currently questionable.
There is no doubt that this stack is incredibly risky, but it allows for great flexibility as it allows you to load up elsewhere to take advantage of matchups elsewhere.
My Advice: I agree with Bischoff that the Flacco side of the equation is risky without a healthy offensive line but since the publication of Bloom's article, All-Pro Right Guard Marshall Yanda is practicing and should be "a full-go" for the Dallas game, according to Matt Bitonti's Offensive Line Rankings. Neither Bloom nor Bischoff is touting Flacco highly, but they offer good reasons to be all aboard Smith's Fantasy Easter Bunny Tour.
And if you like a dose of Narrative Street for an argument, we all know that Smith thrives as the underdog. I'm sure he'll find a reason to get fired up one last time for Dallas.
Winds make the Crow fly high
I've written about Isaiah Crowell's potential to remain a sustainable fantasy starter after the Washington performance. It has been a bumpy ride, but he (barely) remains an RB2 since Week 5. Bloom and Haseley also see the value of Crowell this weekend against a Steelers run defense that has issues begin with gap integrity, which I highlighted in this week's Top 10:
Ryan Shazier: Mike Tomlin told the broadcast crew before the game that the defense had to do a better of maintaining gap responsibility. I could be wrong about these plays, but I'm pretty sure that Shazier sacrificed his responsibilities for shots at "home run plays." It's the defensive equivalent of the corner store concept.
The film observation matches the stats with the Steelers defense and it's something both Bloom and Haseley not in this week's Sleepers and Fantasy Overview, respectively.
Bloom:
Isaiah Crowell (vs PIT) - The Browns have expressed a desire to return to basics on offense this week with Crowell and the running game. As of this writing, high winds (26 mph) are in the forecast, so Cleveland could be given a reprieve as the conditions neutralize the Steelers passing game and keep this one close. Pittsburgh has allowed a 100-yard rusher in three of the last four games and all three had two rushing touchdowns. Crowell is still good even though his team isn’t. If he gets a full workload in this one, it will pay off for anyone who starts him. He has at least 79 rushing yards in every game that has included at least 15 carries for him, and Crowell has at least 30 receiving yards in the last three games to enhance his floor in case the Steelers do jump out to a lead and limit his workload.
Haseley:
Isaiah Crowell, CLE (vs Pittsburgh) - Isaiah Crowell has not been super lately, but he has scored in two of his last four games including five times this season. He has almost three times as many carries as Duke Johnson Jrthis season making him the Browns primary ball carrier. His opponent, Pittsburgh has been horrible against the run lately giving up 204 rushing yards to Jay Ajayi, 127 to LeGarrette Blount and recently 114 to Ezekiel Elliott. It's not far-fetched to think Crowell can't find the right side of luck against the Steelers this week.
Matt Bitonti rates the Steelers' defensive front 27th in his Week 11 Offensive Rankings. The Browns' offensive line remains a top-tier group, No.8 overall. The risk is what Bitonti highlights in his Trust/Fade portion of the feature: Pittsburgh's No.5 o-line faces Cleveland's No.32 front seven on defense, which could easily create a game script where the Browns cannot stick with the run.
That's been the issue for Cleveland most of the year, but Bloom's note about the high winds and Hue Jackson's desire ride Crowell down the stretch make this a positive week to consider him for your lineups.
Martellus The Elite substitute
Sticking with the Top 10 for a moment, my pet theory on New England's offensive has proven a solid guide thus far this year. The one bumpy area was Martellus Bennett. The tight end battled through a high ankle sprain for weeks leading to the Seattle game, which hurt his production against what were ordinarily prime matchups for him.
Sunday night, Bennett exceeded expectations, but it occurred due to a Rob Gronkowski injury:
Week 10's Results versus Seattle: It was one of the rare weeks where one of the "man" players out-produced a "zone" player at the same position and it was the same player as Week 8: Martellus Bennett. Still, there's a good explanation. Bennett has been dealing with a high-ankle sprain and he was still recovering two weeks ago.
This week, Bennett earned more targets after the duo of Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas knocked Rob Gronkowskitemporarily from the game. For a series or two after that, Bennett earned fade routes split wide against DeShawn Shead and he was the target of a play-action crossing route against the grain of the play fake that Gronkowski usually runs when on the field.
In Week 11, New England faces Seattle and this should be a zone game that benefits Edelman, Amendola, and White. San Francisco likes to play man coverage, which makes it a strong game for a healthy Bennett and ups the chances for Hogan to have more production than the Edelman, Amendola, White trio.
For those of you unfamiliar with the pet theory, you can read about it in The Top 10, but it's Bennett's potential that headlines the Patriots' passing game matchup with the 49ers this weekend.
David Dodd's referred to Bennett's extreme value in the excerpt of the DFS Roundtable that I quoted about the Titans-Colts game. He referred to Maurile Tremblay's Interactive Value Charts, specifically the one for FanDuel. Here's Tremblay's explanation of the chart:
This is an interactive value chart for FanDuel using projections by Maurile Tremblay ("MT"), David Dodds ("DD"), and Sigmund Bloom ("SB"). (The "SB" column's kicker projections and defensive projections are by David Dodds.) Choose whether you want to view projected points, projected value, or H-value. Projected value is equal to projected points divided by salary (and then multiplied by 10,000). H-value is equal to projected points raised to the square root of three, divided by salary (and then multiplied by 2,000). H-value, a measure inspired by Dan Hindery, is often a better indicator of true value than points per dollar. Click on the column headings to sort by that column. For example, if you want to sort by Dodds' projected value, first you'd click on "Value" at the top, and then click on the "DD" column heading. (Projections are current as of 11/17/2016 at 4:31 pm (EST).)
When you click on a player's name, the player is added to your lineup over at the right. Projected total points for your lineup are displayed for each set of projections. Click on a player in your lineup to remove him.
If you fill in a partial lineup with no more than six open spaces, you can have the remaining spaces filled in automatically, based on the set of projections you choose, by clicking on the green "MT", "DD", "SB", or "AV". To exclude a player from consideration by this feature, click on the green "o" to the right of his name. (Click again to undo.)
Points Value H-Value As you can see below, Bennett has the highest consensus H-Value among. the tight ends this week.
NAME POS GAME SALARY MT DD SB AVG Greg Olsen o TE NO@CAR 7100 19.4 25.9 20.5 21.8 Jordan Reed o TE GB@WAS 6900 15.9 24.0 18.4 19.3 Jimmy Graham o TE PHI@SEA 6500 23.1 21.8 22.4 22.4 Delanie Walker o TE TEN@IND 6400 19.6 23.1 21.8 21.5 Tyler Eifert o TE BUF@CIN 6300 12.4 21.8 35.0 22.2 Travis Kelce o TE TB@KC 6100 15.3 18.3 20.5 18.0 Julius Thomas o TE JAX@DET 5900 7.3 10.6 10.6 9.4 Coby Fleener o TE NO@CAR 5700 8.0 10.5 10.5 9.7 Cameron Brate o TE TB@KC 5600 8.9 12.5 18.9 13.1 Jason Witten o TE BAL@DAL 5500 17.0 18.0 16.0 17.0 Zach Miller o TE CHI@NYG 5500 14.2 18.6 20.7 17.6 Eric Ebron o TE JAX@DET 5400 12.7 18.6 22.8 18.0 Dwayne Allen o TE TEN@IND 5300 6.3 6.1 6.3 6.3 Martellus Bennett o TE NE@SF 5200 33.1 34.0 37.2 34.9 C.J. Fiedorowicz o TE HOU@OAK 5100 13.5 15.6 10.6 13.2 Considering that Rob Gronkowski may not even play this weekend due to his chest injury, it's worth going strong to the hole with Bennett in your lineups.
Catfight
The Jaguars face the Lions in Detroit this weekend in what looks like another predictable loss for Jacksonville's struggling squad, but the staff still recognizes the value of this offense that's filled with viable fantasy scavengers.
Haseley likes the risk-reward of Julius Thomas as a streamer tight end:
Detroit is coming off a bye, but when we last saw them, they were the leaders in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, giving up 9 touchdowns to tight ends in 9 games. Thomas is on a roll with scores in three of his last four games. This looks like a good week to put him in your lineup.
Bloom once again agrees:
Julius Thomas (at DET) - Thomas hasn’t gone over 28 receiving yards since Week 2, but he has also scored in three of the last four games. Unless Blake Bortles craters this week, he is likely to make it four (or more) in five weeks against a Lions defense that has allowed nine tight end touchdowns. Those stats haven’t been padded by any games against the Patriots duo, Greg Olsen, or Jimmy Graham. If Lance Kendricks and Richard Rodgers can find paydirt against Detroit, Thomas has a good chance of joining them.
These recommendations come on the heels of Ben Koyack earning 24 snaps in Week 10 and catching 3 passes for 35 years. It's also notable that when asked about Thomas earlier this week, Gus Bradley didn't answer the question and chose to talk about Koyack's performance last week. Here's how the two players have performed during the past two weeks:
- Koyack: 34 snaps, 8 catches, 76 yards, 0 touchdowns
- Thomas: 83 snaps, 8 catches, 46 yards, 1 touchdown
Is there a reason for concern? More on that in a moment. Let's look at our favorite fantasy scavenger Blake Bortles and his sidekick Allen Robinson. The overall tenor at Footballguys remains positive, albeit cautious optimism. Bischoff gives his take:
...[this] looks to be a reasonably one-sided game as the Lions are favored by 6.5 points at home, but that number seems a little off to me and I fully expect the Jaguars to give the Lions everything they can handle in this game.
The game total is set at 48 points, and the Jaguars have an implied total of 21 while the Lions have an implied number of 27 points. What stands out here is how the Jaguars have struggled to open games and how they’ve produced garbage-time points to get enough fantasy production to warrant consideration on a weekly basis.
The Lions are one of the league’s worst passing defenses as they’ve given up 20 touchdowns through the air in nine games which is third-worst in the NFL, only behind Cleveland (25) and Atlanta (23) who have both played 10 games. They’ve also allowed a league-worst passer rating of 112.4 to quarterbacks.
The Lions are allowing 25.8 completions per game which is third-worst in the NFL. The reality here is that there just isn’t a statistic to look at that doesn’t support a very positive outlook for Bortles and the Jaguars passing offense.
Robinson has had his share of struggles in the 2016 season, but he’s seeing enough target volume to support a very bullish outlook on a weekly basis, even with the overall ineptitude of the Jaguars offense to date. Robinson has been targeted 48 times in the past four games. He’s caught 24 passes for 262 yards and has scored in each of his past two games.
Simply put, if Robinson gets that kind of target volume in this game, he’ll make enough plays to make rostering him very worthwhile as the Lions haven’t provided to be much of a test for any passing offense in 2016.
Bortles is struggling from very poor play and his mechanics have disappeared, and there’s risk in starting a quarterback that is struggling in the ways that Bortles is at this point. However, the Lions offense should make enough plays to keep the Jaguars passing attack pushing to make plays to stay in this game.
Pivot: Julius Thomas ($5,900) just happens to play a position that the Detroit Lions are not built to stop. The Lions don’t have the athleticism out of their linebackers to stay tight in coverage on athletic tight ends and have been brutalized by the position for multiple seasons. Thomas is not getting enough receiving yards to support a solid floor, but he has scored in three of his past four games and is likely to score again in this matchup.
Beyond Bortles, Robinson, and Thomas, are there other notable plays? Our recent game summaries of Marqise Lee on his Footballguys Player Page appear to make a case for the former USC receiver:
RECENT GAME SUMMARIES
2016 Week 10 vs HOU (6 / 4 / 50 / 0 rec, 1 / 6 / 0 rush)
Marqise Lee is playing the best football of his career. He is consistently getting open and has, somehow, developed into a safety net. Once an unreliable player has turned into a player who is consistently making difficult catches. His turnaround is outstanding and would be a bigger story if the Jaguars won more games. He is the units #2 WR.
2016 Week 9 vs KC (8 / 4 / 84 / 0 rec, 1 / 11 / 0 rush)
Lee is the Jaguars best WR right now. He is the most consistent in all phases and has become a safety valve for Bortles of sorts. He added a deep element to his game this week, being the only wideout that Bortles could connect with on a vertical shot. He is playing like a 2nd-round pick for the first time in his career.
2016 Week 7 vs OAK (8 / 7 / 107 / 0 rec)
Lee, again, was the Jaguars best wideout on Sunday. I can't believe I just typed that either. He has been terrific at gaining yards after the catch and he has cut out the drops from his game. He is the only player on the offense who is producing.
2016 Week 6 vs CHI (6 / 6 / 61 / 0 rec)
This must be the twilight zone, because Lee was the Jaguars best WR on Sunday. He caught everything that came his way and turned several short passes into big YAC situations. The team seems determined to get him involved in the passing game and for the first time in his career, it is paying off.
The Footballguys News Wire also reports good things about Lee's progress from the coaching staff:
Jaguars | Marqise Lee finally enjoying good health Fri Nov 11, 01:08 PM
Jacksonville Jaguars WR Marqise Lee has been 'very impressive' and 'is in a good world', according to head coach Gus Bradley.
Footballguys view: Lee's value will be held down by Blake Bortles in any event, but he is back on the dynasty radar. Lee will turn 25 later this month, but Allen Hurns was just signed long-term. It is possible Lee passes Hurns on the depth chart, but Lee's realization of value in a dynasty league probably isn't coming until 2018. My Advice: Lee is the start over Allen Hurns. As much as I like Hurns, the targets aren't consistently there for him. Fortunately, if you're desperate at receiver and you've stuck with Hurns hoping things would turn around, this matchup is good enough that he help you.
Robinson is a must-start for the reasons that Bischoff supplied and I wouldn't be concerned about Bortle's mechanics. It's hurting him in the first half of games because he's capable of accuracy he should possess when opposing defenses are still playing tight coverage and challenging all routes in a way that a secondary won't when playing with a big lead. If you're a box score watcher on Sundays, avoid the Jaguars' game for the first 3.5 quarters and you won't have anxiety over Bortles and Robinson.
I can't get with Julius Thomas. I want to, but it's difficult to tell whether Bradley's choice to answer a question about Thomas with a discussion about Koyack is a motivational play for Thomas or a true indication that Koyack will be taking away Thomas' playing time. I can't recommend Thomas as a guy to take a chance on.