The Docket: Week 17

Photo: USA Today Sports

Welcome to Week 17 of The Docket. I just wanted to thank everyone that has been reading this column all season long and thank you for being a subscriber of Footballguys. This season has been one of the wackiest ones I can remember, but that’s what makes Fantasy Football so interesting to play.   

Since most leagues have wrapped up already, policy issues don’t have any impact on your season anymore, so I just wanted to recap a few things we have covered in this column throughout the season as we look ahead to next year.

One last note before we get going ... if you are holding your championship this week, I would suggest that you try and change that next year so your championship is in Week 16.  The final week of the NFL season is very unpredictable, for instance, the Patriots have nothing to play for this week and even the Denver Broncos may have nothing to play for by the time their afternoon game kicks off on Sunday.  Why play your whole season with guys like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, only to have them be unavailable for your finals. It doesn’t make much sense.

And away we go:

Defensive Holding/Illegal Contact Penalties – We have been keeping a close eye on the affects of the new Defensive Holding and Illegal Contact rules that were put in place this past off-season. Defensive player’s are no longer allowed to contact a receiver five yards off the line of scrimmage and tugging a players jersey is also no longer allowed. 

According to NFL statistics, here are the stats through Week 15 of this year compared to the same period in 2013: 

While the increase in the number of penalties is quite staggering, how has this affected scoring?  Oddly enough, the total number of touchdowns scored this year is almost exactly the same as last year. Through 16 weeks this year there have been 1,127 touchdowns scored and through week 16 of last season there were 1,143 touchdowns, so 16 more were scored last season than this one. The big difference this year is that there were more passing touchdowns being thrown than last season, but only by about 11. In contrast, in 2013 there were a greater number of rushing touchdowns than this year by about 27, which is a decent number. Although the numbers may be even greater than they seem since last season Peyton Manning threw for 13 more touchdowns in 2013 than he did this year, as the Denver offense has turned more run heavy from their epic passing season of 2013.  

What about kicking, did all these penalties lead to more field goal attempts? Interestingly enough there were around 15 more field goal attempts last season than this season,  so while these penalties have undoubtedly extended drives, the penalties are not having any sort of affect on total points scored.

So what does this mean for your fantasy team?  It means receivers are gaining value at the expense of running backs. NFL teams have already been moving to more pass heavy offenses, which has been boosting receiver numbers for the past few years, so these new rule changes are going to only increase that.  So next year when you are drafting, especially in PPR leagues, you may want to make sure to have a quality receiving core. That said, since there are fewer rushing touchdowns, it will be crucial to own at least one of the marquee running backs that provide weekly consistency such as : LeVeon Bell, Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles, DeMarco Murray, Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy, Arian Foster and possibly guys like CJ Anderson, Lamar Miller, Jeremy Hill or even Isaiah Crowell depending on their off-season development and next season situations.

In daily fantasy leagues, it is also something to keep in mind and I would suggest leaning towards rostering stud WRs and then targeting RBs with tasty matchups that week, such as Matt Asiata had last week against the Dolphins.

2014 Rookie WR Class: This year’s rookie receiving class has been one of the best in history. I beseeched dynasty readers in the pre-season and during the regular season to make sure to grab as many pieces of this class as you possibly could, so hopefully you own some of these players already. If not, you would be wise to make some off-season trades. 

But keep in mind, for every Odell Beckham and Mike Evans, there is a Cordarelle Patterson and Justin Hunter, so if you are not seeing signs of life, don’t be afraid to cut bait and trade for a player that may have a better chance to emerge. There will also be a new rookie crop of receivers coming in next year and there are a few potentially great ones such as: Amari Cooper, Devante Parker, Devin Funchess, Kevin White, Jaelen Strong and Canadian Football leaguer and Chris Carter son, Duron Carter.

Here is how I rank this years crop going forward (Dynasty Rankings – PPR):

Odell Beckham Jr (NYG) - Can play any WR position. Ceiling higher than Antonio Brown’s and could potentially be in that elite Calvin Johnson tier.

Sammy Watkins (Buf) - Has AJ Green type talent and has been banged up all year. Just needs a better QB.

Mike Evans (TB) - He’s a beast and Vincent Jackson very well may be traded next year. At the least, Evans is taking over the number 1 duties. 

Brandin Cooks (NO) - A PPR beast going forward, was on pace for 85 catches this year and will only get better.

Kelvin Benjamin (Car) - Better than expected this year. He dominates in the redzone but needs to improve his route running and hands.

Donte Moncrief (Ind) – Could be a starter next year with an aging Reggie Wayne and medicore Hakeem Nicks in front of him. With Andrew Luck throwing him the ball and TY Hilton taking pressure off of him on the other side, he could easily put up WR1 numbers for years to come. Greg Cosell compared him to Andre Johnson and Josh Gordon, albeit a poor man’s version. Needs to improve his route running and catch the ball more with his hands. But the talent and situation is there.

Allen Robinson (Jax) - Going to be a PPR stud and their WR1 for years to come. He is the best Jags receiver to own.

Jordan Matthews (Phil) - He's a young Marques Colston, but he has to hope Zach Ertz doesn’t start getting on the field more and they will almost certainly add another talented wide receiver in the off-season.

Jarvis Landry (Mia) - Ryan Tannehill loves throwing to the slot and has the tools to be a PPR stud. A poor man's version of Beckham who he played with at LSU. 

Cody Latimer - Erick Decker 2013 is his floor. Peyton Manning’s age is a concern though.

Martavis Bryant (Pitt) - If he improves his route tree, real stud potential. At the least, he will always get a few deep balls thrown his way every game and his snap count should go up. Could be the next Mike Wallace.

John Brown (Ari) - Depends if they keep Fitz, could be higher if starting in 2 WR sets, TY Hilton type stats possible. 

Davante Adams (GB) - They run a ton of 3 WR sets and despite some drops this year, he had great hands in college. There should be enough balls to go around in this pass happy offense and he has the potential to be there next big possession receiver.

Marqise Lee (Jax) - Has a ton of talent, but as a smaller receiver, it could take another year. Like John Brown, he has the talent to be higher on this list.

Paul Richardson Jr (Sea) - this offense caps his upside, near Desean Jackson type talent.

Jeff Janis (GB) – He is a Jordy Nelson clone, but it will take an injury for him to see the field enough to warrant the snaps he would need to put up decent numbers. Adams is more of a possession receiver, so he compliments Cobb and Nelson better for the moment. That said, if Cobb is let go, watch out. 

Dontrelle Inman (SD) - He's a big receiver standing 6'3" and 205 lbs, although he is not techincally a rokkie since he played two seasons in Canada. That said, in his first taste of action in Week 16 he caught 7 passes for 79 yards. With Malcom Floyd entering his age 34 season next year, Inman has a chance to start opposite Keenan Allen. 

Albert Wilson (KC) - Went undrafted but has a little bit of Cooks in him. The pass game in KC is limited, but someone to watch.

Song of the Week –This week I present Novalima, an amazing Afro Fusion band from Peru. You can check out their song ‘Macaco’ below.  I hope everyone has a great New Years and we will see you in 2015!

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