Dynasty Trade Value: Quarterback In-Depth

Photo: USA Today Sports

 The July Dynasty Trade Value Chart article took a big picture view at the top 75 dynasty players overall with analysis of each player. As we head into August, over the next week we will take a much more in-depth look at each position and diving much deeper into the positional rankings. The first position analyzed will be quarterback and today's article will look closer at short-term values at the QB position, then long-term dynasty values and lastly will give guidance for those who play in QB-Superflex and Two QB leagues. 

 Short-term Quarterback Values

It's difficult to understand the big picture of dynasty player values without first understanding the smaller picture. In this case, we can't make big generalizations about long-term player value without first gaining a firm understanding of the lay of the land at the position heading into the 2015 season. As you'll see, the current depth at the quarterback position greatly limits the overall value in one quarterback leagues. 

In projecting short-term value at the quarterback position, let's take a close look at the 2015 scoring projections from Bob Henry (who again was named most accurate preseason fanstay prognosticator in 2014). The final column is the most important as it tells us each player's points per game above replacement level, which is the starting point of the dynasty valuation process. Replacement level can be defined in a number of ways, but generally is defined as a player just below "worst starter." In a 12-team, one quarterback league, the worst starter would be QB12 (Matt Ryan at 20.8 PPG). However, in this case we will use QB18, Eli Manning, as our replacement level starter because he is just a bit below the "worst starter" level and is a relatively inexpensive dynasty commodity and thus makes for a good approximation of replacement level production. Quarterbacks projected to outscore Eli Manning's 20.1 PPG have a positive PPGaR and the quarterbacks projected to score less than 20.1 PPG are deemed sub-replacement level and project to have very minimal value for the upcoming season. 

The first thing that stands out is that only six quarterbacks are projected to score more than 1.5 PPGaR. Thus, there is only a small benefit to owning Peyton Manning or Cam Newton in 2015 versus just owning a replacement level quarterback like Eli Manning or Jay Cutler. A 1 PPG advantage is very little in the grand scheme of things (for example, the top wide receivers and running backs project to score 9-10 PPGaR). Thus, the non-elite quarterbacks are non-premium assets in 2015 redraft leagues.

While it is more difficult to say with confidence that the depth at the position will remain constant going forward, there are many signs that deflated quarterback values (for all but a few passers) are the new normal. First, the new rules that protect the quarterbacks from big hits allow most of the top passers to play well into their thirties. Thus, expect players like Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo and others that are currently in their early thirties to play at a high-level for many more seasons. Second, even as older quarterback like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees age and eventually retire, there exists a strong group of young players some of who should be able to take their place as 20+ PPG producers. Teddy Bridgewater, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, and Derek Carr who all currently project as sub-replacement level in the short-term possess the requisite talents to potentially become fantasy QB1s or high-end QB2s and maintain the depth at the position well into the future.

 Long-Term Dynasty Quarterback Values

The PPGaR stat detailed above forms the backbone of our dynasty values. It is factored in explicitly in each player's 2015 value. Each player's future value is based upon their projected future stats in a similar manner with estimaed PPGaR in 2016 and beyond calculated and added to each player's 2015 value to determine overall dynasty trade value.  

We see the same pattern emerge in the dynasty values as we saw in 2015 values with some real separation at the top of the rankings. With the majority of the top quarterbacks projected to score in the 20-21 PPG range, the few passers expected to score 24 PPG or higher are the outliers in terms of dynasty value. Andrew Luck is in a class of his own due to both his youth and his top notch production. Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson rank far behind and makeup the second tier. The third tier is huge and contains both older quarterbacks projected to have annual value in the 2-3 range (Roethlisberger, Brees, and Brady) and younger players who project to have annual value in the 1-2 range over a longer number of years (Newton, Tannehill, Bridgewater, Stafford, etc.). One or more of these players could emerge and join Rodgers and Wilson in the second tier with a breakout season. Due to their rushing ability, Newton and Tannehill are the best bets to jump up a tier and thus rank near the top of the third tier. 

Superflex Leagues

The overall devaluation of the quarterback position in normal one quarterback leagues has led to a rise in the popularity of Superflex leagues. For the uninitiated, "Superflex" refers to the ability to use a quarterback in one of the flex positions, which allows owners to start two quarterbacks all or most weeks. Unlike a true two quarterback league, the Superflex setup allows the use of other positions in the Superflex spot as well, which is especially important for teams facing bye weeks that only own two quarterbacks.

Despite the ability to use other positions in the Superflex spot, it is extremely difficult to compete in a Superflex league without two quarterbacks in the lineup almost every weekend. Unless the QB scoring is lowered in a Superflex league, it is also a highly inefficient use of resources to attempt to compete without a quarterback in the flex spot. In short, one must treat these leagues as similar to a true two quarterback league and make certain to roster a pair of solid starting quarterbacks. 

In terms of dynasty valuation, the method and scoring projections do not change, but the value used as our "replacement level" production drops significantly. Instead of using Eli Manning's 20.1 PPG (as QB18) as our replacement level score, we will now want to use a quarterback just below QB24 (since in non-bye weeks there should be 24 quarterbacks starting each week in a 12-team Superflex). For 2015, we will use Blake Bortles (QB28) and his 17.3 PPG as our new replacement level production. You will notice that this automatically adds approximately 3 PPGaR for each quarterback. It increases the value of the top QBs as for example, instead of being a "7", Andrew Luck is now a "10." It also greatly increases the values of the players who would be backup quarterbacks in a normal one quarterback league. For example, instead of being a "0", Eli Manning is now a "3."

As you can see from the dynasty trade value chart above, the impact upon quarterback values in a Superflex league is massive. The values are especially high for players who (1) project as top 20 quarterbacks going forward and (2) are highly likely to remain as starters over at least the medium-term.

Andrew Luck becomes the obvious choice as most valuable player in the Superflex format. Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers both move into the top ten overall alongisde the elite WRs, Le'Veon Bell and Rob Gronkowski. The next dozen or so quarterbacks on the list all rank somewhere in the top 50 overall. And even players like Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton who are afterthoughts in one QB leagues have real trade value in a Superflex format. 

Start Two QB Leagues

A related format to Superflex league is the Start 2 QB league. In this format, each owner must start two quarterbacks each weeks. If an owner does not have two quarterbacks slated to start in a given week (a major issue during bye weeks), he must take a zero at the position which puts him at a real disadvantage. Usually in a Start 2 QB league, eight owners will have three starting quarterbacks and be able to cover their bye weeks without taking zeros. And four owners will be stuck with only two starting quarterbacks and have to take a couple zeros at the position over the course of the season when their starters are on bye.

Compared to a Superflex league, the dynasty values are pretty similar but there is an increased premium placed upon the lowest tier starters who each get a slight bump up compared to their Superflex values listed above. For example, Josh McCown may have nearly no value in a Superflex league but in a Start 2 QB league, he does have some real value as a bye week fill-in. McCown will give you around 16 PPG in the two weeks that your starters are on bye which will increase your scoring for the season by 32 points (or about 2 points per week). Thus his value in this format is about "2". It is not worth panicking if you are not able to roster a third starting QB in this format the impact of the two points per week during the regular season is relatively minimal.

Below is a trade value chart for a Start 2 QB League: