The Indianapolis Colts passing game ranked number 1 last year in all the major categories in 2014: Passing yardage, passing attempts and passing touchdowns. The 3rd year of franchise quarterback Andrew Lucks’ career was one where he truly emerged as an elite player and fantasy option.
A key reason for the development of Luck was the play of fellow 3rd year player T.Y. Hilton. Hilton recorded 262 yards and 2 more touchdowns off the exact same number of receptions as the previous year and broke into a fantasy WR1 ranking for the first time. He did this with a less than stellar supporting cast in a vintage Reggie Wayne opposite him and the now journeyman Hakeem Nicks. Add in a below average running game led by Trent Richardson and it was plain to see that the success of this offense revolved around Luck and Hilton.
Recently signed to a 5 year contract extension worth up to $65 million, what would happen to the Colts offense if T.Y. Hilton were lost for the year?
BUY
WR – Andre Johnson
Andre Johnson is a clear upgrade on Reggie Wayne and 3 years younger. He also is arguably a better all round receiver and seen as a fantasy WR2 WITH a fit T.Y. Hilton. If Hilton is lost for the year then expect Johnson to do what he did in his 12 years with the Texans, be the number 1 target. Despite a lack of touchdowns and questionable quarterback play he still managed to finish as a number 1 fantasy receiver for 5 out of 6 years between 2008 and 2013. With Luck throwing the ball he should add to that list as the number 1 target.
HOLD
RB – Frank Gore
The first thought may be to unload Frank Gore in the event of an injury to T.Y. Hilton. Hilton is vital for taking the top off a defense and allowing room for players like Gore and the Tight Ends to thrive. The Colts however have do have speed options in Phillip Dorsett and Donte Moncrief to keep secondaries honest and allow Gore to be what the Colts hoped for when they signed him from the 49ers.
QB – Andrew Luck
Andrew Luck is only in his 4th year as a starting quarterback in the NFL and already he is one of the elite players in the league. The loss of T.Y. Hilton would be an issue, but would be unlikely to detract from his fantasy stats. The Colts have depth at receiver and would be able to cope with the loss of 1 or 2 key receivers. Luck can find the open man, no matter who he is and the only reason to unload Luck would be if you had an offer presented that was too good to refuse.
SELL
TE – Dwayne Allen and TE – Coby Fleener
The Colts are blessed to have two tight ends of the quality of Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener. Allen currently has the higher ADP, but both are in the borderline of TE1 status. It would be tempting to keep either in the event of an injury to T.Y. Hilton, but the loss of a deep threat would be most problematic to the Tight Ends who rely on the space underneath created by the threat of Hilton. The reality though is that the Colts have other deep options and you should only sell if you can get a good enough offer. It would be easy to present a case to other owners that either Fleener or Allen would benefit greatly due to a Hilton injury, but it is unlikely to change the use of either.
ADD
WR – Phillip Dorsett
The Colts have young depth at the receiver position and the pecking order will depend on the progress of 1st round rookie Phillip Dorsett. He is the most natural replacement for a missing T.Y. Hilton. They both have blistering speed, the same height and roughly the same body shape. Dorsett has bigger hands, but Hilton is a better route runner. If Dorsett can step straight in then the Colts will be able to keep opposing defenses honest and allow the other skill players room to get close to their potential. Dorsett won’t approach the stats Hilton would have accumulated, but he will be a credible deep threat and explode in some weeks for his fantasy owners.
WR – Donte Moncrief
Donte Moncrief is the likely number 3 receiver heading into the season and the Colts may not want to move him into a starting slot if Phillip Dorsett is anywhere near ready. Moncrief compares favorably to most NFL wide receivers for speed, but not Hilton and Dorsett who have a clear edge here. Moncrief however has size and is a much more comparable replacement for Andre Johnson. Moncrief had a nice rookie season and given the opportunity would have the potential to move into fantasy WR2/WR3 territory. He likely will have to stay in the number 3 role, but only if Dorsett is ready to take over from Hilton. As the number 3 he is likely to see more targets as the rookie won’t be able to do what Hilton can do just yet.
WR – Duron Carter
The depth of the Colts receiving group is such that Duron Carter is likely to be the 5th receiver, even if he has a good training camp and preseason. He is however the most ready behind Phillip Dorsett and Donte Moncrief to contribute in the event of an injury to T.Y. Hilton. Moving into the number 4 role would be vital for Carter to take advantage of any slip up from those inexperienced receivers ahead of him. Adding Carter would only be advisable for those in deeper leagues and with a bit of patience.
DROP
None