DeMarco Murray has proven many of his doubters wrong by finally breaking into the RB1 territory last year, after promising much in his first 2 seasons in the NFL. It is a common opinion that he is still heavily underutilized by the Cowboys though and despite 10 touchdowns in 2013, the figure would have been much higher if the offense in Dallas used the running game like most NFL teams in the red zone. An excellent receiver out of the backfield, Murray has increased his receptions in each year to exceed 50 last season. The depth chart behind Murray is still being defined through preseason, but with less than a 100 carries between the remaining backs and the Cowboys ranking 31st in rushing attempts in 2013, this team relies solely on Demarco Murray to balance the offense and keep opposing defenses from loading up on Tony Romo and the passing game.
With a checkered injury history, Murray has missed at least 2 games in every year to date, 11 in his career, so we have a fair idea on what would happen if DeMarco Murray was lost for the year. The Cowboys used Joseph Randle to cover for him in 2013 and Felix Jones in the 2 years before that, with Phillip Tanner and Lance Dunbar making cameo appearances. None of them were able to replicate or come close to Murray’s stats or role in the offense so it remains to be seen how 2014 would be different should Murray’s season be cut short, but expectations would be minimal.
BUY
None – The Dallas offense is what it is. The loss of DeMarco Murray for the year wouldn’t change the Cowboys from being one of the more pass dominant offenses. The players worth having outside the backup running backs are likely to already be rostered and shouldn’t increase in value
HOLD
Tony Romo, QB – For better or worse this team relies on Tony Romo to run the offense and losing DeMarco Murray’s 5 yards a carry and receiving skill will hurt the run game, but won’t be a detriment to Romo. The catches made by Murray will be sprinkled between the remaining backs and other players in the offense. There is the likelihood that Romo tries to force even more passes and his interception total could increase, but that could also be a benefit if he connects on a few more big plays.
Dez Bryant, WR – While Tony Romo and Dez Bryant are on the field, the offense has its 1-2 punch. The other players are supporting characters, including DeMarco Murray. Dez Bryant may see more of a focus in the passing game if Murray goes down, but opposing defenses don’t really respect the run game of Dallas anyway, as crucial plays always end up in the hand of Tony Romo. Bryant is already heavily in the game plan of opposing defenses and that won’t change here.
Terrance Williams, WR – Terrance Williams gives the Cowboys a solid 2nd receiver who while still learning is capable of climbing up fantasy charts in the coming seasons. A strong rookie season and opposing defenses focused on negating the presence of Dez Bryant mean that Williams will be under pressure to take another step. If Murray goes down, Williams will not see any change in his role as the Cowboys will still be relying on the passing game to win.
SELL
Jason Witten, TE – The biggest problem if DeMarco Murray goes down is the drop in quality to the next group of running backs. The Tight Ends are likely to be used more frequently as blockers to get that little bit extra out of the run game, when Dallas considers it a necessary evil. As Jason Witten is 32 and 2nd year Tight End Gavin Escobar needs more playing time, they are likely to split reps as the season wears on. Witten will be an easy sell if Murray is lost as a lot of owners will assume more passing. Witten is the 2nd biggest name in the passing game behind Dez Bryant and you could grab a nice player in exchange for Witten before he loses value as the season wears on. If you do not have any other Tight End options you will need to hang onto Witten and hope for the best though.
ADD
Lance Dunbar, RB – Dunbar is a wonderful player in July and August, but his undersized body has struggled to cope once the regular season starts. Dunbar is the most talented back behind Murray and most able to duplicate his skill set. Unfortunately he is not likely to be able to handle a workload, so in essence he will be splitting time with another back who is going to be the back that handles more carries and the red zone touches. Dunbar could be a quick ADD and SELL if he has a good game. Expecting him to be anything more than a flex option is bound to end up in disappointment
Joseph Randle/Ryan Williams, RB – Either 2nd year man Joseph Randle or former Cardinal Ryan Williams are going to end up being the guy that take over the majority of 1st down or red zone carries should DeMarco Murray get injured. At this stage neither is demanding a roster spot, but there is little else putting pressure on them either. As Randle plays special teams well, he would be the favorite at this stage, especially having started the Cowboys opening preseason game. Williams was a much higher draft pick, but serious injuries seem to have affected his mindset when running the ball. The winner of this battle will also be the winner of most carries in the Cowboys offense if Murray goes down, but they will be marginal fantasy contributors at best.
WATCH
Cole Beasley, WR – As surprising as it may sound, the Cowboys could use more 3 receiver sets with the loss of DeMarco Murray and Cole Beasley is getting a lot of wraps for his development during the off season. While the Wes Welker/Danny Amendola comparisons are cheap and easy, he doesn’t have their upside in any circumstance. He could however develop into a handy or desperate option if Dallas abandon any pretence of a running game.
DROP
Gavin Escobar, TE – Gavin Escobar has been having a fine off season and has been talked about as an exciting addition in the passing game with or without Jason Witten seeing the field. The loss of DeMarco Murray would add more responsibility to Jason Witten though, without the extra touches. Escobar would be reduced to a blocking Tight End or a gadget play here or there. In deeper leagues where Tight End depth is important, Escobar would be rendered almost useless and as such should only be held in dynasty leagues where his value should go up as Jason Witten ages rapidly.