The Butterfly Effect: Friday, October 28th, 2016
With that news that DraftKings had eliminated their late swap feature for the current NBA season, it became apparent that there needed to be a dramatic shift in lineup construction strategy. Instead of being reactive with respect to injury news—especially those involving players in later games—you now must be proactive in your approach, which means projecting the value of players who may or may not be seeing a role change. The easiest way to transition to this line of thinking is to embrace the Butterfly Effect theory, which looks at how small causes can have big effects. With respect to the NBA (and fantasy sports in general) it is the chain reaction caused by one event, with specific focus on looking several layers deeper than what is most obvious. The most impactful injury is generally those that involve point guards because they have the ball in their hands at the highest rate, are responsible for running the offense and dictate what pace their team plays at. They are the quarterbacks of the NBA and it is their responsibility to generate offense for their teammates as well as themselves. Each time an injury to a point guard occurs, I have a list of questions that I research that is the essence of the Butterfly Effect.
What is the skillset of the injured point guard? Is he a pass-first point guard, and if so, does he rely on penetration to set up teammates?
How do opposing teams guard him on the perimeter and in pick and roll scenarios?
Does he push the ball in transition, or does he rely on half court sets?
What the skillset of his backup? How does his skillset matchup with the injured player?
What changes will the offense see, and who is most likely to be affected—both positively and negatively—from the change? Will one player be counted to pick up the slack, or will there be a committee approach?
These questions can be tailored to fit any position, but the point guard and center positions are those that affect teams the most because they are the two positions where everyone else is moving in reaction to what they do.
In addition to injuries, The Butterfly Effect can also be applied to coaching changes and trades. Anytime a significant event or change occurs, this article will be your guide to finding how value has shifted, both positively and negatively.
Injuries:
New Orleans Pelicans
Key Losses: Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans
Primary Beneficiaries: Tim Frazier, Anthony Davis
Secondary Beneficiaries: E’Twaun Moore, Lance Stephenson, Buddy Hield
It is no secret that the Pelicans have been looking for a long-term answer at the point guard position, after all, what better position to lock up when you have an all-world talent like Anthony Davis. The organization was committed to Jrue Holiday, but Holiday is dealing with life issues that are more important than basketball right now and has taken a leave of absence from the team. Tyreke Evans has developed a blood clot in his calf after having another surgery on his right knee. He is taking his recovery very slowly and a time table on his return has not been set. Evans and Holiday are important pieces to the Pelicans long term—Holiday as the future at the point guard position, and for Evans that could manifest as a draft pick or trade bait—but now they must move on with Tim Frazier running the point. Evans and Holiday were both players who needed the ball in their hands to be effective, which in theory did not mesh very well with Anthony Davis. While it is somewhat of a small sample size due to all three players having a high frequency of injuries, when all three were on the court together during the 2015-16 season, their usage rates were as follows: Davis 24% (65.30 fantasy points per 48 mins), Evans 24% (52.48 fantasy points per 48 mins) and Holiday 23% (43.49 fantasy points per 48 mins). Without Evans and Holiday on the court, Davis’s usage rate went up 31%, but interestingly enough he was much less efficient, averaging 58.23 fantasy points per 48 minutes. This makes sense because opposing teams did not have to account for Evans or Holiday, and the lack of perimeter threats meant constant double teams whenever Davis touched the ball. This was a major reason why New Orleans drafted Buddy Hield and brought in Tim Frazier to run the point. It will take time for Hield to get acclimated to the NBA game, but as the season progresses he will be counted on to increase his production and keep opposing defenses honest on the perimeter. The obvious beneficiaries from Evans and Holiday’s absence are Tim Frazier and Anthony Davis. It would be irresponsible to put too much stock into the first game of the season against the Nuggets, but it is also hard to ignore Davis’s 98 point outburst (47% usage rate). Denver chose to play Davis straight up with Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic, and it had predictable results. Davis had 50 points, 16 rebounds, five assists, seven steals, four blocks and a partridge in a pear tree…but Denver won the game, so perhaps they had the right strategy after all and it will be interesting to see how other teams choose to handle Davis moving forward. Regardless, Davis is going to account for a large percentage of the Pelicans offense, and he has the look of a player who wants to put last year’s injury riddled season behind him. Value comes in all shapes, sizes and salaries, but if you are playing GPP’s, the most valuable players are those with the highest ceilings. Few players are capable of putting up a 100 ball, so Davis has to be considered an elite option whenever he is on the slate. Tim Frazier played 36 minutes, and had an excellent showing from a fantasy perspective, scoring 15 points with 11 assists, five rebounds, two steals and a 15% usage rate. Most importantly he is a pass first point-guard who is capable of beating defenders off the dribble, especially on pick and roll sets where Davis can exploit mismatches when defenders choose to switch off the ball. He will be counted on to run the offense and it was telling that Langston Galloway only played 10 minutes in an up-tempo game. Frazier will continue to be great value for as long as Holiday remains away from the team and his price stays below $6,000, but as we saw with Ish Smith and Holiday last year, Pelican point guards are seen as fantasy producers so their salary rises very quickly. With Evans out of commission, the Pelicans chose to start E’Twaun Moore at shooting guard. He played 28 minutes, scoring 10 points with one rebound, four assists, a steal and a block, and had a 19% usage rate, second highest on the team. Moore led the Pelicans with a +/- of 9, and was one of only two Pelicans with a positive number in that department. He made two of four 3-point attempts, and along with Frazier’s one 3-pointer made, were the only Pelicans to record a triple in the game. Moore’s upside is capped because he is not a knockdown shooter, and won’t have the ball is in hands much. If you are looking for a reason why Davis scored 50 points and the Pelicans lost, the lack of a perimeter threat is a good start. Moore, Hield and Lance Stephenson will be counted on to replace Tyreke Evans as a committee, with Stephenson being the closest in terms of raw skillset. He played 25 minutes, made four of seven field goals for eight points, to go along with three points, three assists and a steal. If Stephenson can continue to be an efficient offensive threat, he will most likely get the most minutes of the three in the short term, as he is the best defender of the three and brings an aggressiveness that the Pelicans desperately need while they deal with life without Evans and Holiday. He is priced at the minimum on DraftKings, making him an interesting GPP flier, especially against a Golden State team at home on Friday with the second highest implied total of the night (216 points).
Detroit Pistons
Key Losses: Reggie Jackson
Primary Beneficiaries: Ish Smith, Marcus Morris, Tobias Harris
Secondary Beneficiaries: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Andre Drummond
Reggie Jackson is dealing with injuries to both his left knee and his right thumb, and has undergone platelet-rich plasma procedures in an attempt to secure his long term health for the 2016-17 season. Best case scenario is he will be back sometime around the second week of November, but conservatively speaking it is looking like he will miss the first 15-20 games of the season. Jackson dominated the Pistons offense last year, leading the team with a 29% usage rate, a full 10% higher than Andre Drummond. With Jackson on the shelf, the Pistons went out and picked up the hired gun of NBA point guards, Ish Smith. Smith has played for 12 teams since he came into the league in 2010, and has never played two consecutive seasons for the same team. Smith enjoyed somewhat of a breakout fantasy season in 2015, starting a successful three game stretch with the Pelicans before being immediately dealt to the 76ers where he averaged 14.7 points, 7 assists, 4.3 rebounds and 1.3 steals per game. Smith is what you call a true point guard, as he is capable of stepping in and running an offense well while getting teammates involved. He is more of a slasher than a shooter, and depends on penetration off the dribble and in pick and roll situations to set up his assists. He did not get off to a great start against the Raptors on Wednesday night, making only 3 of 10 shot attempts to finish with six points, seven assists with a rebound and a steal. He did play 33 minutes, which is about what you can expect him to play on a per night basis until Jackson is fully healthy and capable of regaining his starting spot. Smith should have better games moving forward, as there is enough talent on the offensive side of the ball for him to put up double digit points and assists, especially in games where he can get out in transition and take advantage of his quickness, court vision and finishing ability. With Jackson out, there is a sizeable chunk of offensive production to be spread out most notably in the points and assists categories, with a little under two three pointers a game available as well. While the Pistons would probably prefer for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to get going on the offensive side of the ball, it was Marcus Morris who led the team in shot attempts and rebounds while playing 31 minutes, a full four minutes less than he averaged last season. Morris was 7 of 17 shooting the ball for 17 points, nine rebounds, three assists and a steal. He was only 2 of 8 from behind the arc though, and that is one area where he can expect to see increased opportunity while Jackson is out of the lineup. Morris has averaged 10.7 points per game throughout his NBA career, but he has increased his points per game average every year since 2012. Aside from Jackson, the Pistons are not a particularly assertive team offensively, with ball movement and unselfishness being staples under Stan Van Gundy. From that perspective, Morris and Tobias Harris are the most aggressive gunners in the starting five, and it is not surprising that two finished with the most shot attempts and points. Harris most likely has the best opportunity to increase his production with Jackson out, as he and Morris can interchange at the 3 and the 4, and both can score effectively in isolation. Harris led the team with 22 points on 8 of 13 shooting with five rebounds, one assist and one steal. He was one of two shooting the three and played the second most minutes on the night (36 minutes, only KCP played more at 38 minutes). Harris is a very skilled offensive player, capable of scoring on the perimeter or in the post, making him the most likely candidate to lead the Pistons in scoring. With Jackson slated to miss roughly 20-25% of the season, Harris can assert himself offensively and carve out a lot of value at the small or power forward positions. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is the best Pistons defender on the perimeter and it is clear that Van Gundy values his contributions on that end of the floor. The problem is that the Pistons desperately need outside shooting, and Pope is in a contract year where he could seriously pad his bank account if he could even show the slightest whiff of offensive production. Wednesday was not a good start, as he shot only 2 of 9 from the floor, to finish with four points, three assists and two steals. Van Gundy played him the most minutes, something he routinely did last year as well. Flatly put, Caldwell-Pope is being given every opportunity to score, and unlike other players, he doesn’t have to worry about playing time if he misses shots. His situation is touch and go, as he doesn’t produce nearly enough in peripheral categories to warrant being on your rosters, but he’s being given the green light and could realistically make a big jump. For now, it is best to keep your exposure to Smith, Harris, Morris and Drummond. Speaking of Drummond, his fantasy value increased only slightly when Jackson was not on the floor, an interesting fact when you consider how much the Pistons place the ball in Jackson’s hands. His usage rate jumped by 3% (to 22% without Jackson), with his points per minute increasing by a similar ratio. This is due to both Morris and Harris stepping up their usage rates by 5-7% when Jackson was out of the lineup, so they are actually given more latitude offensively than Drummond is in that scenario. Without overacting to the first game, I do think we will see Drummond’s value decrease slightly with Jackson on the sidelines, as Smith, Harris and Morris can all pick up the slack on offense much easier than Drummond can, but it remains to be seen whether Van Gundy chooses to run more plays through Drummond as the season progresses.
Utah Jazz
Key Losses: Derrick Favors, Gordon Hayward
Primary Beneficiaries: Joe Johnson, Rodney Hood
Secondary Beneficiaries: Rudy Gobert, George Hill
The Jazz are forced to start the season off without their two top scorers from last season in Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors. More than that though, the entire offense was run through Hayward in a point-forward capacity and Favors in the low post. They did address this situation in the off-season by bringing in veteran point guard George Hill, who was a great fit for a team that really needed consistency and leadership at the point guard position. They also brought two other seasoned veterans in Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw. Both are on the back end of their careers, but Johnson in particular was a savvy signing because he is still a very skilled offensive player that can boost their second unit. Johnson is also one of the great clutch players of the current generation, although you wouldn’t know it because he’s made a bunch of regular season game winners for a Nets team that brought them from like 25 wins to 26 wins. Sad, really. He’s found a perfect home in Utah though, and it was evident on opening night that he can pick up the scoring slack in the short term while Hayward is out and he has fresh legs. Johnson scored 29 points in 30 minutes, making 12 of 16 field goal attempts and 3 of 4 treys to go along with four rebounds, three assists and a steal. I suspect that Johnson’s production will take a big hit when Derrick Favors comes back, but he makes for a nice GPP play ($4,900) on Friday night at home against the Lakers. The Jazz depend on their starting five as much as any team in the league, with all five players logging at least 30 minutes against the Blazers on Tuesday. Rodney Hood has the biggest opportunity to increase his production with Favors and Hayward out, as the Jazz have made him a cornerstone of their franchise moving forward. Hood is capable of playing the role of a combo-guard, but his natural position is at shooting guard, a luxury he can now be afforded with George Hill in town. This allows Hood to concentrate his energy on offense, something he was committed to against Portland. Hood was 9 of 17 from the floor, finishing with 26 points, two rebounds, one assist, two steals and one block. Hood was 3 of 7 from three point land, which is one area where he will be depended on greatly to keep defenses from crowding the post while allowing Favors and Gobert room to operate. Hood is a natural scorer and if there was one player who should continue to put up 20+ points a game in Favors and Haywards absence, it would be him more so than Johnson or Hill. I wasn’t sure what to make of Hill in the current Jazz offense, as he showed flashes of being a big time fantasy player as a Pacer, but was lost in the shuffle of Paul George and Monta Ellis’s domination of the ball last season. We will learn more as the season progresses, but if the first game was a sign of things to come, Utah will give Hill every opportunity to lead their offense and he has a great chance of being one of the better values at point guard. He was 7 of 18 from the floor against the Blazers (1 of 6 on 3’s), finishing with 19 points, two rebounds, six assists with two steals and a block. Dante Exum played only eight minutes, while Hill played 38 minutes, second only to Rudy Gobert’s 40 minutes for the Jazz. Speaking of the Stifle Tower, Gobert was his usual efficient self, making 4 of 7 shots to finish with 12 points, 14 rebounds, two assists, and two blocks. Gobert’s contributions are felt mostly on the defensive end and as a rebounding force, regardless of whether Favors or Hayward are on the floor. His usage percentage actually dropped without either in the lineup, from 12% with them to 7% without them. This could be in part to Rodney Hood becoming a gunner in those situations which tends to stop the ball from rotating and presents less pick and roll opportunities. Regardless, Gobert is becoming a DeAndre Jordan type center play, only at a lower price and you should feel comfortable rolling him out at his current price. He’s an especially juicy play against the Lakers at home on Friday, where he should have his way with Timofy Mozgov on the glass.
Trades:
Golden State Warriors
Key Gains: Kevin Durant, Zaza Pachulia
Key Losses: Andrew Bogut, Harrison Barnes
Biggest Losers: Draymond Green, Klay Thompson
The Warriors made waves this offseason by trading away Andrew Bogut and Harrison Barnes to the Mavericks while picking up Zaza Pachulia, a move that was made to free up the cap space needed to sign free agent du-jour Kevin Durant. The signing of Durant gave the Warriors another gifted scorer who is capable of taking a game over by himself, with the reality being they didn’t really need another player like that, but anytime you can add Kevin Durant, you have to do it. This is addition by addition, but at what expense? The truth is Durant is more likely to spoil the chemistry of a team that had some of the best team chemistry you could ask for, than it will be that he somehow increases that chemistry to a level we’ve never seen before. Other than Kevin Durant, I don’t really see another player on the Warriors benefitting (from a fantasy perspective) from his presence, and if we are comparing Durant on the Thunder to Durant on the Warriors, he’s losing value as well. The biggest losers of value though are both Draymond Green and Klay Thompson. Thompson was a seriously frustrating DFS play half the time, while the other half of the time he generated the type of production that made you not really care about the times when he burned you. Truth be told, he was at the mercy of Steph Curry and Draymond Green, and he played the role of fantasy third fiddle rather well. Draymond Green on the other hand was a dominant fantasy player nearly all of the time, capable of putting up big time triple double production while adding in steals, blocks and threes to boot. He is without a doubt the biggest loser, because his real world basketball contributions will outweigh what he is now being asked to do on the offensive end. Andrew Bogut was a great fit in Golden State because he was a presence in the paint who could hide many of the Warriors defensive liabilities. He didn’t need shots to be effective, and he took the pressure off of Green on the defensive end, allowing him to guard his natural position. That is all over now with the addition of Zaza Pachulia in the starting five. Green will be tasked with guarding the post much more now than he had been in the year’s past, matching him up with the type of low post players capable of getting him into foul trouble and forcing him to expend much more energy on the defensive end of the floor. Green was utilized in a point-forward capacity in the high post last season, something that was boosted by his ability to shoot the three and put the ball on the floor, not to mention is excellent court vision and the type of unselfishness you’d expect out of a four year player under Tom Izzo. Add in the fact that Pachulia has much better range than Bogut, (he’s a career 75% free throw shooter, while Bogut never topped 63% in a season, and failed to eclipse 52% the last four years) and is a worker on the offensive glass, averaging 3.3 offensive rebounds for the Mavericks last season. If Pachulia is given the green light to hit the offensive glass, guess who probably isn’t? This is another factor that takes away from Green’s ability to rebound and rack up assists on the Warriors missed 3-made 3 type plays that they have become famous for. All of these factors add up to Green taking a huge step back from a fantasy production standpoint, and that is said because he was one of the most fun DFS plays last season. Even if we are treated to Steph Curry and Kevin Durant combining for 100 fantasy points, I’d still take Green’s stat-stuffing nights any day of the week. This is assuming Green is even on the Warriors by season’s end, as there are already rumors of a Green for Nerlens Noel trade happening, however credible that may be. How did we get here?