Quarterback (Cash/GPP)
Ben Roethlisberger (@ Baltimore) Price: $7100
I have not featured Roethlisberger in this column as much as I hoped before the season started. Between his injuries and the constant value that was apparent at quarterback each week, Roethlisberger just always seemed to miss the cut when I did my PP$ rankings. If I had to do it over again, I would tell Ben “It’s not you, it’s me”. He’s had a fantastic season all things considered. Over his last six games, Roethlisberger is averaging 365.8 passing yards per game, while throwing 13 touchdowns to seven interceptions. The turnovers are something we could all do without, but that is to be expected when you throw the ball 44 times per game (over the same span). Roethlisberger has arguably the best wide receiver in the game in Antonio Brown, but what has really pushed this offense forward is the break out seasons of Martavis Bryant and Marcus Wheaton. They have rounded out the offense well, and defenses need to think twice before double teaming Brown, something Seattle found out the hard way when Wheaton went over 200 yards receiving against them in week 12. This week, Roethlisberger and company will travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens in an important divisional matchup with playoff implications for the Steelers. The Baltimore pass defense has been horrendous all season, although they have improved mildly over the past month, giving up roughly 20 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (19th in the NFL), and 28.7 points per game to opposing wide receivers (9th most in the NFL). Pittsburgh leads the league in passing plays of 25+ yards (38), which also happens to be an area where the Baltimore secondary has struggled mightily, giving up the 14th most plays of 25+ yards. Given the sheer volume of Pittsburgh’s passing, Roethlisberger makes for a great cash game option this week. He should have no problem moving the ball and creating plays down the field, so I am expecting big games out of Brown and Bryant. A Pittsburgh super stack (Roethlisberger/Brown/Bryant) is certainly something to consider for GPP’s as well.
Quarterback (GPP)
Blake Bortles (@ New Orleans) Price: $8450
There is usually at least one new player per season that I become a fan of through drafting them, or playing them weekly in my DFS lineups. For 2015-16 NFL season, I will always have Blake Bortles. He’s been at the helm of my biggest GPP scores this year and I have done very well by stacking the Jaguars offense around him (Robinson, Hurns, Thomas). If you were to just look at his statistics, you’d be hard pressed to figure out a reason why his salary has not rose alongside his production. Bortles is currently fifth in passing touchdowns (31), seventh in passing yards (3,821) and 11th in total completions (311). The biggest knock on him is his accuracy (57% completion percentage), which he needs to improve upon, but he’s also throwing down the field more frequently. Bortles has generated the 3rd most passing plays of 25+ yards (34), which is scary when you consider that Bortles, Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns are all in their second year as professionals. This offense is going to be explosive for a long time to come. This week the Jaguars (who are still in the playoff picture) travel to New Orleans where there figures to be enough fireworks to rival Mardi Gras. The New Orleans secondary has been opposing quarterback’s best friend, averaging 276 passing yards allowed while giving up 39 (…39!) passing touchdowns to only four interceptions. It may surprise you to learn that Bortles is the Jaguars second leading rusher on the season (305 yards), which is an underrated skillset for fantasy quarterbacks. He’s scored rushing touchdowns in back to back weeks, and he could make it a third consecutive week against a Saints team that has allowed rushing touchdowns to both Jameis Winston and Cam Newton. When you combine his salary, matchup and the current form of the Jaguars offense, Bortles jumps off the screen as my #1 GPP quarterback.
Kirk Cousins (@ Philadelphia) Price: $6500
The addition of a (finally) healthy Desean Jackson has made a world of difference for Kirk Cousins and the Washington offense. Opposing defenses are forced to respect Jackson’s speed, which in turns opens up the middle of the field for Jordan Reed and opens up running lanes for the Redskin running backs. Having a big play threat in the passing game has been the difference between Cousins being a mediocre value play and him being a GPP winning quarterback. Last week, Cousins generated one of the best PP$ scores on the year, returning a 7.2x multiple on his salary (37.94 points, $5200 salary). In addition to passing for 319 yards and four touchdowns, Cousins padded his stats by rushing for a touchdown in the second half. He’s passed for multiple touchdowns only three times on the season, but he has managed to stay in the picture by rushing for five touchdowns. Over his last four games, Cousins has combined for nine touchdowns (with only one interception) and gone over 300 yards passing in two of those games. This week he faces off against an Eagles defense that has allowed 28.6 fantasy points per game over the last four weeks (2nd most in the NFL). The Eagles defense runs hot and cold, as they are capable of forcing sacks and turnovers pretty easily, but they are an undisciplined group, evidenced by the fact that they are letting up more plays of 25+ yards than their offense is generating (-2 big play differential). Cousin’s main attraction is his salary, although now that we have seen an established ceiling of 37 points, the decision to play him in GPP’s becomes much easier. He’s not going to throw for four touchdowns and 300 yards often, however if he is able to throw for 250 yards and a touchdown while chipping in a rushing touchdown, he will be returning a 4x multiple on his salary. That may not win you a GPP on its own, but it will give you the flexibility to spend at other positions, which is a crucial factor this week with salaries being much tighter at the skill positions.
Running Back (Cash)
David Johnson (vs Green Bay) Price: $5350
If you follow this column regularly, you’ll know that I have been heavily endorsing Johnson as a GPP play. While I had confidence in him as a cash game play, there was still not enough of a sample size to accurately project his floor. So what changed? Well, first off, the Arizona coaching staff put the offense on his back against Philly and Johnson essentially beat them by himself. Johnson’s 48.18 points was highlighted by a “Beast Mode” like run where he disappeared into a pile of offensive and defensive lineman, then somehow emerged ten yards down the field running with steam, where he then proceeded to throw several Eagles players to the ground with vicious stiff-arms while tip-toeing his way into the end zone. If that sounds like a ridiculous run, go back and watch the tape, it was the type of the play that instantly gains credibility. Johnson finished with 187 yards rushing with three scores, while also chipping in four catches for 42 yards. The touchdowns were encouraging, but on a day where he rushed the ball 29 times, the fact that he caught four passes cemented his cash game value in my mind. On an offense that has so many top tier weapons, Johnson is the center piece. I should also mention that he was injured right before half time on a play that looked like it could be a season-ending, let alone game-ending injury, he returned for the second half and helped put away the game for Arizona. At $5800, Johnson is not the bargain he was last week ($4900) or two weeks ago ($4800) or three weeks ago ($4000), but he is still the best option at running back, regardless of price or matchup. This week Arizona hosts a Green Bay team that is fighting for a playoff berth, which should help keep this game close enough so that both offenses may benefit. The Packers defense has allowed big games from Matt Forte (30.30 points), Jamaal Charles (32.19 points), Todd Gurley (18.41 points, 159 yards rushing) and Ronnie Hillman/CJ Anderson (38.67 combined points), paving the way for another monster performance from Johnson. He is my #1 cash game running back this week, and that is due to both the confidence I have in him, and the lack of confidence I have in other competing running backs.
Javorius Allen (vs Pittsburgh) Price: $4100
Last week Allen was the most recent victim in a long line of running backs that have been shut down by the Kansas City defense. Leveon Bell is the only running back to eclipse 100 yards vs the Chiefs this season, and that was all the way back in week 7. The main point here is that I have not lost complete faith in Allen due to one bad game. He came into week 15 averaging 21.34 points per game over his previous four games, with an established ceiling of 37 points. If you were to go through the player pool at running back, you’d have difficulty finding anyone with his ceiling and usage percentage at a price that his consistent with his. As I mentioned above, sometimes you have to make a decision on a player that hinges on other players relative to his position. I am not seeing much value in the lower tiers, nor do I feel confident spending a high dollar amount on guys like Devonta Freeman or Adrian Peterson. This week the Ravens host the Steelers, which means the Ravens defense will have their work cut out for them. Vegas has the total projected at 47 points, with implied totals for Pittsburgh at (28.5 points) and Baltimore at (19.5 points). The game script should dictate a high volume of passing plays for Baltimore, which is where Allen has returned his highest value. In week 13 against the Dolphins, Allen caught 12 passes for 107 yards and a touchdown. This came during a four game stretch where Allen caught at least four passes in each game and totaled two receiving touchdowns. He may not have the allure of a Freeman, Peterson or Gurley, but if you are aiming for a balanced roster, Allen’s price tag and ceiling goes a long way. I also expect him to be very low owned after last weeks (or lack thereof) performance.
James White (@ New York Jets) Price: $4300
In the ever changing game of “Musical Running Backs”, James White is the most recent player to emerge in the New England Patriots backfield. He is in the mold of Shane Vereen and Dion Lewis, and it looks as though he’s been able to gain the confidence of Tom Brady in passing situations, the most important factor in whether or not he would emerge in Lewis’s absence. With the exception of the Patriots week 12 loss to Denver, White has been fantastic. Over the previous four weeks, he’s caught 23 passes for 256 yards and three touchdowns, while also managing to score two rushing touchdowns on only six carries. With the recent news that Patriots receiver Danny Amendola will miss Sunday’s game against the Jets, White becomes even more important to the success of the Patriots offense and is line to see a high target volume. In the first meeting between these two teams, Tom Brady threw the ball 54 times. The matchup on paper looks to be a good one for White, as other running backs have had success in the passing game against the Jets (five touchdown receptions allowed to running backs in 2015). While White’s value is solely dependent on him not only being involved in the passing game, but also turning those catches into big gains, the game script looks to be very much in his favor. This game is an important one for both teams and for that reason the game should stay close and New England should remain aggressive. Due to the volatility in White’s production, he should remain low owned this week. There are sexier options out there at running back, but beware of the smoke and mirrors that surround many of them. White is firmly entrenched as the passing down specialist for the Patriots, and that role is one that has produced many big games throughout the years. Get him in your GPP lineups.
Wide Receiver (Cash/GPP)
Antonio Brown (@ Baltimore) Price: $6350
Last week I had a tough decision to make in choosing between Julio Jones and Antonio Brown. I said that if all things were equal, Brown would be my choice, however with a reduced salary and a lower expectation for his ownership percentage, Jones was the better GPP play. That turned out to be a big whiff, with Brown doing what Antonio Brown does so well…catching every pass in site and turning them into big plays. He finished with 16 catches for 189 yards and two touchdowns. The biggest oversight in that decision was at the quarterback position. I am a constant studier of game logs, and my feeling was that Brown and Jones had similar ceilings, even if Brown reached his more often. Matt Ryan is not in the same class as Ben Roethlisberger with respect to maximizing their receiver’s talent, and it is safe to say I have learned my lesson. That isn’t a knock on Jones, but rather a nod to Roethlisberger and Brown. The last few weeks of the fantasy season are often the most important, and with that you want to be playing the guys you have the most confidence in. Over the last six weeks, Brown has scored 49.89, 38.13, 11.72, 39.65, 16.94 and 49.69 points. That is four GPP winning performances in six weeks, and there is no other wide receiver capable of racking up that type of production. The Steelers will need to lean on him if they want to have a chance at the playoffs, making him the #1 receiver, cash game or GPP, this week and for the rest of the season. His salary is as high as it’s been all season, but don’t let that deter you. Get him in your cash and GPP lineups against a weak Ravens secondary, he won’t disappoint.
Wide Receiver (GPP/Cash)
Sammie Watkins (vs Dallas) Price: $5300
When it comes to Watkins, much of the fantasy community had a similar outlook, he was out of sight, out of mind. I fell into the trap during the first half of the season, as Buffalo looked to be far too inconsistent of an offense to depend on Watkins as a #1 receiver capable of matching production to his inflated salary. As it turns out, Watkins and quarterback Tyrod Taylor just needed some time to get on the same page. When they did, Watkins talent was on full display and he has been excellent over the second half of the season. Over his last four games, Watkins has caught 19 passes for 459 yards and six touchdowns, with touchdowns in every game and two touchdowns in a pair of those games. Taylor throws a high arching deep ball, which matches up with Watkins blazing speed very well. Buffalo has also ripped off a bunch of big rushes this season, forcing defenses up in the box which has left their cornerbacks vulnerable to the deep ball. The Cowboys defense has been generous to opposing running backs, but they’ve also let up big performances to opposing #1 receivers, including Julian Edelman (4/120/1), Julio Jones (12/144/2) and Mike Evans (8/126). With Karlos Williams and Mike Gillislee ready to gouge the Dallas defensive front, look for Watkins to score a long touchdown in play action. There are options around his price point that deserve consideration (Jeremy Maclin, Mike Evans and Demaryious Thomas) but given his current form, Watkins is the guy I want in my GPP lineups.
Tight End (Cash/GPP)
Jordan Reed (@ Philadelphia) Price: $5100
I’ve mentioned this in previous weeks, but I will reiterate that the tight end position on Fantasy Aces is very closely bunched together with respect to salary tiers. Jordan Reed found himself in the middle upper tier for much of the season ($4600-$4950), however he jumped up to $5100 this week after a string of big games. In his matchup with Buffalo last week, Reed caught seven passes for 84 yards and two touchdowns. The week before that against Chicago, he caught nine passes for 120 yards and a touchdown. To say he has benefitted from the return of Desean Jackson would be an understatement. He was the Redskins #1 target while Jackson was injured, and that made it tough for the offense to generate big plays with no down field threat. Reed is essentially a big, physical receiver playing tight end, but he was always more of a possession receiver and the Redskins didn’t really take advantage of his size in the red zone. That trend reversed itself this year though, with Reed already catching a career high nine touchdowns. He has three multi-touchdown games on the year, with an established ceiling of 25 points. This week he faces off against an Eagles defense that has been solid against tight ends, allowing only two touchdowns to date against the position. In their first meeting, Reed caught five passes for 37 yards. The biggest difference this time around will be Jackson’s presence, and he will be fired up for a revenge game against the Eagles. Expect Kirk Cousins to take some early shots deep to Jackson, which should soften up the middle of the field for Reed. He will cost you an extra $200-$300 more than you are used to paying, but don’t discount what Reed means to this team. The Redskins are in the driver’s seat in the NFC East, and to hold onto 1st place, they will need to get their playmakers the ball. Reed is A-#1 on that list. Get him in your cash and GPP lineups and enjoy watching him tear up the Eagles linebackers on Saturday night.