Welcome back to The Daily Grind, the place where I will be discussing all the happenings in Daily Fantasy Sports on a weekly basis. The Daily Grind will be my voice to help you through the constantly changing DFS landscape as I highlight important news, free articles, resources, potential overlay situations, great contests to play and more every week. The emphasis here will be first to cover the four sites that we partnered with this year (FanDuel, DraftKings, FantasyAces and FantasyScore), but I will still discuss major news and contests beyond those sites when applicable.
THANKSGIVING AND DFS
Normally I save the Thanksgiving article for Thanksgiving week (surprise, surprise), but now that The Daily Grind is shared with so many of you on the weekend, I thought it was timely to talk about next Thursday’s DFS football games and contests this week. I started by going back to last year’s discussion, and I am going to borrow some of it for this year, as I think it is very appropriate to go over once again. So let’s start talking about the three-game slate of contests next Thursday, and how best to approach those games.
Next week is Thanksgiving, and many sites are offering Thanksgiving only contests. That means that there are contests with the players from only three contests (this year, Philadelphia at Detroit, Carolina at Dallas and Chicago at Green Bay), which sounds like a much easier game to play – but the truth is actually exactly the opposite. These contests have fewer players to choose from, so every player choice is far more critical to the outcome of the contest, and the fewer games increases the odds against you winning.
Let me start by sharing yet another conversation amongst the Footballguys’ staff from last year. I was looking at a Monday-Thursday contest on DraftKings where the Eagles-Panthers and Miami-Buffalo contests were the two games from which you could select players. Because of the low cost of nearly every player, there was no possible lineup you could create which would maximize your salary cap. That meant that you could take any players you wanted and not be inhibited at all by the salary cap restriction. That got me to thinking that there could be an advantage here, but a few of the great minds here a Footballguys quickly changed my view. For example, Danny Tuccitto summed up the problem quite nicely with these two short but powerful paragraphs:
Thinking of this question from a game theory perspective...
Assume you are the best in the world at making lineup decisions, and that gives you an edge over the entire field in any DFS game. In that world, your best game would be the one that requires the most lineup decisions because it multiplies your edge the most. Therefore, the games with highly restricted player pools (e.g., Monday-Thursday, Sunday Night Football-Monday Night Football, Sunday Afternoons only, etc.) wouldn't be as profitable as the ones using all (or almost all) of the week's slate (e.g., Thursday-Monday or Sunday-Monday). Don’t get me wrong, the restricted games would still be profitable because you're the best decision maker in the world; they just aren't the best games for you if your goal is to maximize profits -- which it obviously is.
It's pretty much the same principle underlying why people advise novice poker players to highly restrict their pre-flop ranges and play as ABC as possible. Playing premium hands (i.e., choosing from a restricted "card pool") means playing fewer hands, which means having to make fewer (and easier) decisions, all of which are preferred when you don't have a decision-making edge over your opponents. It's only when you've gained said edge that you should widen your range in hopes of multiplying your edge over a larger number of (increasingly tougher) decisions.
Rock solid thinking here.
Let me give a simple example here that sums it up quickly. Let’s say you are in a 50/50 league with 90 entries. In a normal week with 30 teams in play (either due to byes or a Thursday game), that would mean that – on average – the quarterbacks, kickers (if any) and defenses would all be equally represented in three lineups in the league each. Now of course there are some better defenses, so let’s say the best defenses would be represented 3-4 times as much, but that is still only 9-12 lineups, or 10-13% of the teams in the league using those teams.
Now, let’s take this to a Thanksgiving contest with just six teams in play with the same 90 entries. There are only six viable quarterbacks, kickers and defenses to pick from, so odds are that every one of them will be used at least nine times, or be on 10% of the lineups or more. That means if you choose the wrong one, you will be at a big disadvantage and that your lack of a unique lineup (because so many other lineups will contain the players you use), your odds of recovering from that disadvantage are not good.
So the simple lesson this week is to avoid playing limited player pool games – but not entirely. I will throw one curveball at you (to change sports analogies briefly). If you really want to play and this Thursday, consider tournament entries only - which is exactly what DraftKings and FanDuel are promoting. Stick with the tournaments on a small slate like Thanksgiving. That is the way to play for Thursday. Going back a few weeks when I did recommend playing in a Monday-Thursday contest with a limited lineup, only put in a lineup that tells a story well for the two or three games involved for that contest. If you think Chicago is going to run a ton against Green Bay, use Jeremy Langford. If you think the Eagles will manhandle Detroit, use the Eagles defense and consider their kicker and DeMarco Murray as well – and do not use Detroit’s backfield. That would not make sense with your game script. Be sure to be consistent in your thinking and your lineup decisions, and that your entire lineup makes sense for the game scripts you see playing out.
Bottom line - Be realistic and understand the challenges with fewer games on the slate. But have fun and here's hoping your Happy Thanksgiving is even happier.
Have fun and Happy Thanksgiving.
THE DFS LEGAL REPORT
Once again, no week in discussing DFS would be complete without a mention of the goings on in the legal arena and also from the government legislation and regulation aspects. While it may sound like a dry topic, the impacts are big to the DFS community and there was a major step forward this week. Let me start with that, as the Attorney General for Massachusetts (Maura Healey) made not just a statement about DFS on Thursday but also announced and presented a set of recommendations that look to be a framework for DFS regulation. While some may not be a big proponent of regulation for DFS and some may even oppose some of the recommendations, I have to applaud the effort here. The staff was discussing this quite a bit this week, including Joe Bryant and David Dodds. Before I get into the details, I shared my thought with the staff that I love what AG Healey did here. It is one thing to come out and make a statement against DFS, and quite another to make a generalization that the industry needs regulation. That’s where most governmental officials have stopped, but not AG Healey, who went to the next (and biggest) step of actually outlining what the regulation should look like. For her and her office to take the time to architect a draft of suggested regulations is a huge step in the right direction. Some regulations may be debated, but at least now we have something to point towards as a framework for DFS regulation that other states may very well adopt. This could be a major step forwards for DFS and governmental cooperation and also help to preserve the DFS games without a major change to the ecosystem.
Now, I will share with you the draft of the regulations, which again could be a bit of dry reading, but it is well worth going over. Some articles are already out there that boil down the main points of the proposed rules for Massachusetts, and I will highlight just a couple.
- No employee of DFS sites can play
- Limits on monthly deposits
- Limits on the number of entries in a given contest (3% of the total field)
- No scripts of any kind
- No college games
- Beginner games must be offered
- Pro/Expert (“Highly experienced”) players must be identifed
- 100% lock of the contest after the first game starts (i.e. no “late swaps”)
Much of the proposed regulations match what many experts had been pushing for or calling for to sustain the DFS ecosystem, including Joe and David in their DFS town hall. Fan of all of these proposed regulations or not, this seems to me that Massachusetts is willing to cooperate with both FanDuel and DraftKings if they are willing to do the same. If that works out, that could spread to all the other states quickly and create a viable path forward for the DFS ecosystem to grow and prosper for several years to come.
FOOTBALLGUYS AND DFS COVERAGE FOR 2015
You know the deal by now - Footballguys has a ton of DFS coverage this year. Whether it is our two e-books that cover FanDuel (“Cracking FanDuel”) and DraftKings (“Cracking DraftKings”), or the 50+ articles a week we produce to cover all four major sites each week – we have it all covered. All this articles are linked in our Daily Crusher App that continues to be one of he best ways that DFS players can create lineups for cash games and tournaments and also get deep analysis on their rosters, likelihood of winning and exposure to various players. Once you start using this, it will be hard to imagine how you ever lived without it. I'm still learning all the different ways to use this great tool both by experimenting with it and with the help of our Daily Crusher Manual and I can already see its immense value to me as both a cash game and GPP player.
There's a ton more coverage we have this season for DFS, too much to outline in The Daily Grind, but we have a large section dedicated to each of our sponsor sites listed below.
DraftKings Coverage for Week 11
FantasyAces Coverage for Week 11
FantasyScore Coverage for Week 11
Let's also not forget about the Footballguys' blogs for both FanDuel and DraftKings. Watch for new content every day over there.
We even added new video content for 2015. In a partnership with Rotogrinders, you can now see both John Lee and Austin Lee with Dan Back on The Footballguys Rotogrinders Hour. It is a great show with lots of insight. Check it out!
Of course, if you are a bigger fan of The Audible, we have both FanDuel and DraftKings shows for DFS coverage for each site as well. Be sure to subscribe to these weekly podcasts to get your weekends rolling for the NFL DFS slate.
FOOTBALLGUYS DFS CONTEST - FINAL WEEK
If you won a ticket to the Footballguys Football Championship presented by FanDuel, please check your account on FanDuel for a ticket or a dummy lineup entry waiting for you to adjust for this week. This is the week you have been waiting for - the chance to turn those tickets into a big cash prize. Set those lineups and good luck!
BIG CONTESTS FOR WEEK 11
FANDUEL
Fanduel continues the fun in Week 11 with some of the largest volume of contests around. Start off with this week's $2.5 Million Contest where someone will win a half-million bucks for just a $25 entry all the way down to the NFL Sunday Rush, wherr a $5 entry to this contest can win you $100,000 for first place. What a value that one is. But of course there is more, and as we mentioned earlier in The Daily Grind, FanDuel partnered with Footballguys to create an exclusive Footballguys-FanDuel Championship with over $40,000 in free prizes, and this is the week of the final where you can win up to a $5,000 prize with those tickets you earned, so get those lineups set! And of course this is also the week of the Playboy College Football Championship, where 70 lucky winners head to the PCFC event at the Playboy Mansion on November 21st. Let's also not forget about the biggest one of them all, the $12M Fantasy Football World Championship that was announced early this season. Find a qualifier you like and take a shot and winning millions of dollars. The hard part is not deciding if to play, but which contests to target and try and take down.
DRAFTKINGS
DraftKings is once again offering their usual slate of great GPP contests. Such is the case this week with the $5M Millionaire Maker for Sunday. First place walks away with $1M dollars, not a bad payday at all. DraftKings still has the biggest contest around with their $15 Million contest announcement from a few weeks back, and qualifiers are still in play for as low as $3 an entry. Hmmm, $3 for a shot at $5 Million. I’m in, and I think everyone should take a shot at this big prize.
As far as the rest of the contests for this week, there are plenty of tournaments at DraftKings to sink your teeth into, even after the Millionaire Maker. At a price point of just $3, the $1M Play-Action tournament is certainly appealing, and this week they kept the $9 tournament at big money levels as the NFL Slant contest offers $375K in prizes and you can win as much as $25,000. There' are also several giant 50/50 contests in the lobby as well, including a $25 entry with 18,000 winners about to get $50 Tuesday morning. Lots of contests and lots of money to be had in Week 5, so get those lineups ready.
FANTASYACES
You have to check out what FantasyAces is offering this season. Not only are they going bigger and better for the NFL, but they are also going for a Live Final for College Football!
First, FantasyAces announced the $500,000 NFL Live Final for 2015, which will be in Newport Beach, CA on December 13th. The live final will have 40 entrants competing for a $100,000 grand prize. Qualifiers will run all season long up until the live event, including satellites to get into qualifiers at a discount.
This is the week of the $100,000 College Football Live Final. The live event takes place in Newport Beach, CA on November 21st where 13 finalist will compete for the $100,000 prize pool. Best of luck to those who made it this far, and enjoy that great trip!
FantasyAces also has an interesting format called SalaryPro, where you get bonus points for staying furhter and further under the salary cap. More and more are trying out this unique format, so be sure to check out the lobby over at FantasyAces for contests that use this rule.
FANTASYSCORE
FantasyScore is offering up a GPP with a twist this year. If you can finish in the Top 3 in their Fantasy Football Championship Satellite, you can grab an elusive golden ticket for an entry towards the Week 16 championship game where $25,000 will be awarded. Another way to get a ticket is to go after the $20 entry satellite that is giving away four tickets. Check out all of these contests and more at our FantasyScore page.
Footballguys has you covered here - both in major DFS announcements and the tools you need to build winning lineups.
Thanks as always for reading The Daily Grind, and good luck this week.