NFL Draft Dynasty Preview – NFC West
This is the first installment in the series of articles examining the teams within the NFL divisions, including the fantasy opportunity for players on the depth chart and where we expect a team to add talent in the upcoming NFL Draft.
Arizona Cardinals
It has now been three years since the Cardinals made a big splash by bringing in Bruce Arians to run the team. The move proved to be a great one as Arians has transformed Arizona into a Super Bowl contender. Even though some of the key players are getting long in the tooth, there are plenty of young players for the Arizona fans to get behind.
Quarterback:
Carson Palmer has played at a high level since arriving in the desert. What a steal he was for the Cardinals, giving up a late draft pick swap with the Raiders. While Palmer is in the twilight of his career, he represented a big upgrade over the team's previous starting quarterbacks: Kevin Kolb, John Skelton, and Ryan Lindley. The veteran passer stabilizes the offense and is a great match for the talented group of receivers. If he can remain healthy, Palmer has a chance to be a top six fantasy quarterback again this season. Two years ago, Drew Stanton was acquired to be the backup and he remains the QB2 for the team. The offense hinges on Palmer staying healthy. Matt Barkley is the third quarterback, but we expect Arians to draft a passer to groom for the future. Palmer is far from a spring chicken.
Running Back:
A year ago, Andre Ellington was looked at as the defacto starter. Those days are long gone as David Johnson shined as a rookie in 2015. The team found their long-term starter. Ellington is expected to play a complementary role behind both David Johnson and Chris Johnson. The second-year player is very good as a runner and receiver. He gives Arizona a star at the position that the team has not had in several years. Chris Johnson will provide veteran leadership behind David Johnson once again. He still looked strong last season and will get carries. The tandem allows the Cardinals to have balance on offense.
Wide Receiver:
Larry Fitzgerald is an aging superstar receiver who is still valued highly in dynasty leagues due to recent production. He will see plenty of pass targets once again, enough to be considered a borderline fantasy WR1 most weeks. Fifth-year pro Michael Floyd has struggled to realize the promise he showed in 2013 where he caught 66 passes for 1,054 yards. Floyd has yet to top either number in the past two years. He still is talented and could emerge as a top 20 fantasy receiver this season. John Brown played very well as a rookie in 2014 and followed it up with a strong sophomore campaign, catching 65 passes for 1,003 yards, and seven touchdowns. His strong play has limited Floyd's targets. This is a strong trio at Palmer's disposal. The pass catchers just need the veteran passer to remain healthy. Their respective fantasy numbers tanked after Palmer went down to injury two years ago. The speedy J.J. Nelson and savvy Jaron Brown will serve as depth receivers. Given Fitzgerald's age, there is a chance Arizona upends the dynasty world with a mid-round selection at the position.
Tight End:
Coach Arians rarely involves the tight end position in the passing game. For this reason, we are not excited about either Darren Fells or Jermaine Gresham as a fantasy option. Troy Niklas is still trying to emerge into the starting lineup. We have learned our lesson and will avoid. If one emerges, it will likely be Fells.
Draft Picks:
First round: 29th overall selection
Third round: 92nd overall selection
Fourth round: 128th overall selection
Fifth round: 167th overall selection
Fifth round: 170th overall selection
Sixth round: 205th overall selection
Los Angeles Rams
Jeff Fisher has rebuilt the Rams into his type of team. The defense is strong – especially up front - and underrated while the offense is still young and strong in the running game. The success of the 2016 season will hinge on the play at the quarterback position once again. The big trade for the first overall selection in the NFL Draft should buy Fisher another two years to turn the team into a winner. Count us as doubters in the ever-average Fisher achieving in a division with better coaches and better talent.
Quarterback:
Last season, the Rams traded Sam Bradford to Philadelphia in exchange for Nick Foles and a second round draft pick. This pick was used in the big trade for the top pick in the NFL Draft. After weeks and months of the team brass saying that Case Keenum was the long-term guy, the trade made it obvious Keenum is a backup, as though anyone believed the rhetoric anyway. Nick Foles will likely be released or traded to a team needing quarterback depth.
Running Back:
The Rams shocked the football world by selecting Todd Gurley in the first round of last May's NFL Draft. Gurley is a huge talent who was coming back from a knee injury. He quickly showed that the pick was a great one. The youngster is an immense talent. Benny Cunningham will return as a change of pace back and is a solid receiver. Los Angeles may run the ball close to 500 times this season to keep the pressure off the rookie passer. Tre Mason has had a tumultuous time after a promising rookie season. Malcolm Brown will see more action if Mason's legal issues are not quickly resolved.
Wide Receiver:
Tavon Austin was selected in the first round in the 2013 NFL Draft to provide a spark for the St. Louis offense. He has yet to develop into the player the team had hoped. We have since realized that Austin needs his touches “manufactured” since he is not a pure wide receiver, able to get open for passes on his own. Two years ago, veteran Kenny Britt joined the Rams from the Titans, where he was coached by Fisher. Britt is still only 27 years of age even though it seems like he has been in the league for ten years. He is a player to watch as the team is missing a legitimate WR1 lined up on the outside. Feels like we say that every offseason. After two injury-plagued seasons, Brian Quick is finally healthy. He was drafted with all the potential in the world, but failed to break through a poor group of pass catchers. Austin's college teammate, Stedman Bailey, is looking to return to the field after being shot twice in the head. He ware rooting for him. We definitely see the Rams drafting a receiver in the third or fourth round (with one of their two picks), and possibly another pass catcher later in the draft. This is a position of weakness and a rookie quarterback needs a decent receiving corps in order to be effective in the tough division.
Tight End:
After the Jared Cook signing with the Packers, there is a void at the position for the Rams. Lance Kendricks is the lone player to mention. We do expect the team to add a tight end or two as the summer activities commence. A player like Owen Daniels would be a nice addition to the Rams passing attack. But, there is also the chance that Los Angeles will desire just a blocker at the position. If so, there are plenty of options.
Draft Picks:
First round: No. 1 overall
Second round: No selection
Third round: No. 76 overall
Fourth round: No. 110 overall, No. 113 overall
Sixth round: No. 177 overall, No. 190 overall
The Rams did not receive any compensatory picks in 2016.
San Francisco 49ers
After a very impressive run with San Francisco, coach Jim Harbaugh departed a year ago for the University of Michigan. He was replaced by in-house candidate Jim Tomsula. Tomsula was ousted in favor of Chip Kelly this offseason. My, how the franchise has tumbled in three years. There is little talent on either side of the ball. We could see the team selecting a player at four positions listed below. Kelly will have his hands full in a tough division.
Quarterback:
In 2013, Colin Kaepernick exploded onto the scene to lead San Francisco to the Super Bowl. Count us in the camp that the Kaepernick trade to Denver will happen as long as San Francisco drafts a passer in the first two rounds. Kaepernick is a great athlete playing the quarterback position but will not be a good fit for Kelly, who values precision passing. In 2014, the 49ers traded for Blaine Gabbert to play backup. Gabbert has a legitimate chance to start games this season, whether ahead of Kaepernick or while a rookie gets up to speed. There is much drama to a potential Kaepernick trade since he is scheduled to make roughly $14 million and Denver wants to pay much less. We expect the 49ers to be desperate enough to eat the different just to move forward. One off-the-radar rookie quarterback to watch is Vernon Adams, who played last season in Oregon. Kelly still has plenty of connections at the school. Adams is shorter than ideal, with small hands. But, the kid is a play-maker.
Running Back:
Carlos Hyde is a very good running back and will need to stay healthy to show he is a workhorse ball carrier. The good news for Hyde is that there is not another back on the team who is a threat for touches. The bad news is that the team will likely be playing from behind often and not able to establish a running attack. Journeyman Shaun Draughn will likely be his backup. Last year, the team selected Mike Davis in the draft to provide depth. He missed most of his rookie season due to injury. Davis is powerful runner who played better in 2013 than 2014. The 49ers will need to run the ball to keep the pressure off the quarterback – no matter who is under center. Let's also remember how Kelly emphasized the running game in Philadelphia. Given this, we do expect San Francisco to draft a running back in Day 2 or Day 3 of the NFL Draft.
Wide Receiver:
This is a decimated receiving corps. Last offseason, Michael Crabtree departed and signed across the Bay in Oakland. Anquan Boldin is now an unsigned free agent and his presence will be missed in both the running and passing games. Speedster Torrey Smith is the only viable pass catcher on the roster at this time. Last year, DeAndre Smelter was drafted to possibly be Boldin's replacement. That day is here. Smelter is a big, athletic receiver who played in a run-oriented Georgia Tech college offense. He missed too much time last season to make an impression so we are penciling him into the starting lineup off of potential. A player to monitor in preseason is Quinton Patton. Patton is more quick than fast, and runs tight routes. He could be a flex option for desperate fantasy owners. Third-year Bruce Ellington is a play-making receiver. Ellington is explosive but will not be able to find the field much. This is another position we expect the offensive-minded Kelly to address in the draft.
Tight End:
Vance McDonald was drafted in the second round of the 2013 NFL Draft. McDonald has not been consistent as a professional and is not a fantasy option. Garrett Celek (Brent's brother) and converted college quarterback Blake Bell wait in the wings to emerge as the starter. Bell is the one we like. The tight ends were involved in Kelly's Eagles offense and we expect the same in San Francisco.
Draft Picks:
First round: No. 7 overall selection
Second round: No. 37 overall selection
Third round: No. 68 overall selection
Fourth round: No. 105 overall selection
Fourth round: No. 133 overall selection (compensatory pick)
Fifth round: No. 142 overall selection (from San Diego Chargers)
Fifth round: No. 145 overall selection
Fifth round: No. 174 overall selection (compensatory pick)
Sixth round: No. 178 overall selection (from Dallas Cowboys)
Sixth round: No. 207 overall selection (from Denver Broncos)
Sixth round: No. 211 overall selection (compensatory pick)
Sixth round No. 213 overall selection (compensatory pick)
Seattle Seahawks
Pete Carroll seems to have the midas touch in the Pacific Northwest. The Seahawks are a balanced team that will be a Super Bowl contender once again. Making it to the Super Bowl in consecutive seasons through a tough NFC Conference is quite the feat. Seattle is hoping to make it three out of four years.
Quarterback:
Russell Wilson does not get his due from the fantasy community even though he is a high-percentage passer and a great athlete. Wilson, thought too small to be a NFL starter, is a heady player and an efficient quarterback. The Seahawks have quietly assembled a strong group of receivers for Wilson to target. The perennially-strong running attack results in fewer pass attempts for Wilson than his peers. He makes the most of those attempts, exploiting defenses keyed on stopping the run. The team is hoping to re-sign Tarvaris Jackson as Wilson's backup once again.
Running Back:
Marshawn Lynch has hung up his cleats as a football player. He will be missed by fans and fantasy owners alike. Second-year pro Thomas Rawls will look to emerge as the lead dog in a talented group of rushers. He needs to get healthy first. Christine Michael was brought back to form a dynamic duo with Rawls. Michael is uber talented but still makes too many mistakes. Carroll will want to use the running game to control the game and set up the pass. For this reason, we expect Seattle to draft a tailback in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft. It would not be surprising at all to see the Seahawks select Derrick Henry in the latter part of the first round. Carroll will want to pound the ball again this season.
Wide Receiver:
Doug Baldwin has emerged as the team's top receiver. His fantasy status was buoyed by an inordinate amount of touchdowns last year. For reference, Baldwin went from 3 receiving scores in 2015 to 14 in 2015. In fact, he had never scored more than five times in a season before last year. Can he repeat? Time will tell. Tyler Lockett looked great as a rookie and will see his role increase in 2016. Even though he is undersized, Lockett was a star in college at Kansas State. He has a knack for getting open. Jermaine Kearse is a solid player and contributes when called upon. Speedy Paul Richardson Jr is still looking to get healthy. He has plenty of potential if he can stay on the field. Seattle has plenty of receivers for different situations. They each offer qualities for Carroll and company to utilize. Lockett is a player we will be closely watching. He could emerge into the fantasy starter conversation in year two. The emphasis on the ground game and the plethora of receiving options could make it difficult for fantasy owners many weeks. This unheralded group of receivers is talented.
Tight End:
When Seattle traded for Jimmy Graham last season, it shocked the NFL …. and the fantasy community. But, the question then and now is: “Will there be enough pass targets for Graham to be a fantasy star?” Well, Graham has to get healthy before the question is answered. Luke Willson will back up Graham. If Graham is slow to return to action, Willson could be a sneaky fantasy option.
Draft Picks:
First round: 26th overall selection
Second round: 56th overall selection
Third round: 90th overall selection
Third round: 97th overall selection (compensatory pick)
Fourth round: 124th overall selection
Fifth round: 171st overall selection (compensatory pick)
Sixth round: 215th overall selection (compensatory pick)
Seventh round: 225th overall selection (acquired from Dallas for Christine Michael)
Seventh round: 247th overall selection
This division will be a two-horse race between Seattle and Arizona once again. Each of these teams is considered a favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. The other two teams in the division will each be lucky to win eight games, with Los Angeles having the better chance to break into the playoff chase. San Francisco is in full rebuild mode and may win only a three or four games this season.
Please feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with any questions or comments. Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIN, and Google+ so feel free to connect where most convenient.
