Footballguys Staff Mock Draft 5, MFL10 format, 12 team PPR

It really depends on how the draft itself is breaking. Top-tier wide receivers fly off the board pretty quickly in MFL10’s, and you really need to snag one of them at a minimum. For this draft, I was able to walk away from the first four rounds with two WR1’s that I’m high on in the form of Brandin Cooks and Terrelle Pryor, so I’ll take that as a win. From that point in the draft, I’m always mindful of value and best player available. When I got to round seven, I knew I needed a third wide receiver and the pickings were getting slim. Although he’s a WR2, Brandon Marshall popped out to me because I believe has some really solid upside in the New York Giants offense. As the draft proceeded to the middle rounds, I pounced on both both Cameron Meredith and Robert Woods. While the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams will likely be below average offenses in 2017, that should be offset by the amount of targets both players should receive as the projected WR1’s on their respective teams. As the draft wound down, I took a flier on ArDarius Stewart. Once again, we have a wide receiver from what’s projected to be a poor offense, but he should see a solid amount of volume as we can expect the New York Jets to be playing from behind more often than not. In short, I’m assessing my wide receivers based on the volume they should see in relation to the value afforded by their draft slot.    

 

 

When my turn popped up in the twelfth round, I was pretty happy to see Robert Woods still sitting there. He’s flying under the radar this year due to the perceived limitations of the Los Angeles Rams offense, but there’s a new sheriff in ton in the form of new head coach Sean McVay. I’m fully expecting McVay to take the handcuffs off of the offense, and I’m intrigued by what his coaching will mean for the development of Jared Goff. We all saw the magic he worked with Kirk Cousins during his time in Washington, so you can color me optimistic that her’ll turn the same trick with Goff. For Woods, he’s an experienced receiver that slides into the WR1 role in what should be an improved offense. He’s in line to see a ton of targets, and I was happy to pounce on him in round twelve.  

 

 

If you can make it happen without disrupting the rest of your roster, then I say go for it. However, I won’t knock myself out to make it happen. If you’re fortunate enough to get to the later part of the draft without any holes to fill, then it makes sense to to snag a handcuff to your stud running back. In a perfect world, I want that handcuff to be in line to at least see some work without the injury bug coming to town. To add another wrinkle to the handcuff strategy, I’m also assessing the overall strength of my running back corps. If I have what I consider to be at least three solid running backs, I’m less concerned about grabbing a handcuff. When my running back cupboard looks barren, I’ll be more mindful of grabbing a handcuff in the event that disaster strikes. 

 

Overall Strategy

Clear value-based drafting, resulting in heavy WR investment and all chips in the middle on rookie RBs

Best Pick(s)

Tyler Eifert, 7.03, TE6 – By my board, this is solid value for Eifert. The rest of this TE tier went two rounds earlier, and Eifert boasts a stronger ceiling than any of them. He’s certainly prone to long-term injuries and isn’t even ready for 2017 prime time yet, but that risk is largely baked into this spot, and he’s a true candidate for a top-three TE finish. A red zone dynamo whose overall role is a bit underrated, Eifert’s last 20 games would extrapolate to a full-season line of 64 receptions, 800 yards, and a whopping 14 touchdowns.

Worst Pick(s)

Running back depth – I like the rookies, but John didn’t leave himself any wiggle room behind them. Backing Fournette and Cook are three perpetually injured veterans, all of whom are either strict backups or face serious competition for snaps. Jonathan Stewart is a chic mid-round pick, but I don’t like his outlook: he’s a certified injury case who’ll lose a ton of work (and goal-line opportunity) to Christian McCaffrey and Cam Newton. Eddie Lacy does carry some upside, but his health and conditioning histories are terrifying, and Darren McFadden might not matter at all once Ezekiel Elliott’s (assumed) suspension is over. If I were John, I’d have looked into adding a stabilizing force at RB3, like Bilal Powell or C.J. Anderson in the early-middle rounds.

Evaluation

Aside from his RB shortcomings, I love what John has put together here. Those wideouts look great, a blend of volume and dynamism that should carry him most weeks. And he was shrewd at QB, pairing a couple of guys from late in Tier 1 to near the top of Tier 2 at very affordable costs. He’ll need one or both of those rookie runners to hit solidly, as well as useful weeks from Jonathan Stewart scattered along the way. If that pans out, John could ride that dominant receiving corps to something special.

post-draft questions

1. Which player on your roster in the 10th round or later are you most excited about? Explain your answer.  

I was excited to see Eli Manning available in the 11th round, available at 123 overall. Manning's current ADP is 100 overall and he sets up as one of my preferred late QB targets in MFL 10 leagues.  The Giants were aggressive during the offseason by upgrading their offense with wide receiver Brandon Marshall and first-round tight end Evan Engram. Over the past two seasons, Manning has (10) games with at least 3 touchdowns. He also has (13) games with 1 touchdown or less. This inconsistency can be maddening in a redraft league. However, pairing Manning with 1-2 complimentary QBs in a MFL 10 league can lead you to a championship. 

2. Which player do you find yourself avoiding most in drafts this year? Explain your answer.

I don't usually cross any player off my draft board because every player has value at some point. However, Matt Ryan's current ADP is 45 overall and too rich for my taste. He has zero upside at that ADP. Ryan posted a career best 38 touchdowns last season. Prior to last year, Ryan has averaged 25.2 touchdowns/per season over his 9 years in the NFL. In most drafts, Ryan is being drafted before Russell Wilson, Derek Carr and James Winston, who I have projected to have a better upcoming season. 

3. What advice would you give to someone drafting in a best ball or MFL10 league?

Target impact players on high scoring offenses. Target players that can score multiple touchdowns on any given Sunday, such as Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, and Jordy Nelson. Target backup RBs late, such as Darren McFadden, that can move the needle if the starting RB is injured. Don't be afraid to take a backup TE or defense a tad earlier as you may miss a run on the position as I did in this draft. 

Stephen Holloway - Slot 4

Overall Strategy

Nearly zero-RB, with a stable of PPR-friendly backs and reliable yet explosive wideouts and two fairly early TEs; sit tight at QB

Best Pick(s)

Mike Wallace, 11.04, WR51; Breshad Perriman, 12.09, WR58; and Will Fuller, 13.04, WR61 – Stephen went heavy on wideouts early on, which is shrewd in MFL10s – early-round floors tend to be more crucial than ceilings, and busts can really sink you. But he outdid himself in the middle rounds, where he scooped three seriously high-upside guys mostly below their value. He locked down a ton of Ravens production in Wallace and Perriman, which is a big deal. Only New Orleans has dropped back to throw more over the past three years than Baltimore, and securing 2/3 of their high-usage wideouts this late was a real coup. Wallace has been a quietly consistent WR2/3 producer for years, notching 113+ targets in 5 of his last 6 seasons (across 3 different rosters). And Fuller is far too talented and well-versed in creating touchdowns to last this long. I see him making a run at 70 receptions and 8-9 scores if Houston’s quarterbacking holds up.

Worst Pick(s)

Julio Jones, 1.04, WR2 – It’s hard to quibble with Stephen’s roster, which did zero-RB quite well. The only misstep in my eyes is prioritizing Jones over Odell Beckham Jr. at the onset. It’s splitting hairs, and Jones is indeed capable of monstrous things. But he also carries some semi-significant warts – his lack of touchdown production, his history of nagging injuries – that I’d solidly prefer Beckham. Still, this is somewhat splitting hairs, and Stephen certainly didn’t doom this impressive team or anything.

Evaluation

I really love what Stephen put together here. Best-ball formats tend to reward secure production over upside-chasing, making WR-heavy strategies the optimal moves, if only marginally. And to that end, Stephen appears to have sewn up a well-insulated roster rooted in dynamic WR scoring. He built his RBs appropriately – an early-round workhorse supplemented with receiving-heavy backs down the line, guys with sturdy roles and underrated volume outlooks. And he waited at QB, landing an upper-Tier 2 anchor and some very late help. It’s only July, but this really looks like a near-bulletproof roster.

post-draft questions

1. Talk about why you would rather have Julio Jones over Odell Beckham or Mike Evans in an MFL10 (you selected him 1.04). 

To be honest, its a close call for me between these three wide receivers and if I have a mid-first round pick this year I would be glad to have any of the three as my first round selection. I prefer Julio Jones over Beckham because of two things. Jones is the top target easily in Atlanta and even in last year's injury affected campaign, he had more receiving yards than each of the other two. Last year Jones had 40 less targets than Beckham and 43 less than Evans, yet finished with more receiving yards. The other important factor is that while both Beckham and Evans will also receive the most targets for their team, it is reasonable to expect less targets for each this year. The Giants added Brandon Marshall and drafted a tight end, Evan Engram in the first round. The Buccaneers added DeSean Jackson and drafted a tight end, O. J. Howard, even earlier than Engram. I also think that Jones is the very best wide receiver in the NFL and can still remember his catch in the Super Bowl that gave the Falcons a first down at the Patriot 22-yard line that most thought had won the game. Even though, the Falcons shot themselves in both feet after that, it was a clutch play by one of the NFL's best and to me he remains slightly ahead of Beckham and a little more ahead of Evans.

2. Philip Rivers is commonly the 10th quarterback taken off the board (or later). Why is he falling in drafts, despite consistent performance year after year?

I am really high on Philip Rivers being a value selection in 2017 for several reasons. The first is that he has had sustained success with the Chargers, passing for an average of 4,487 yards and 31 touchdowns for the past four seasons. The second is Rivers has an awesome group of receivers this season, arguably better than in any of those past four years. The third reason is an improved line that will allow him to remain upright a little longer. Those same four seasons, he has finished as QB5, QB11, QB11 and QB8 and unless the running game usage shows a marked increase, he could again finish as QB5.

3. Which player on your roster are you most apprehensive about this season? Explain why you're concerned.

I am most concerned about my back-up quarterbacks, Alex Smith QB25 drafted at 16.9 and DeShaun Watson QB27 drafted at 17.4. I had planned on drafting a second quarterback much earlier, but my later targets, Eli Manning, Andy Dalton and Carson Palmer all were drafted before I pulled the trigger. After that I kept drafting depth, often at running back and felt obligated to take two since Alex Smith has a low floor and a possibility of being replaced late when Rivers has a bye. Watson is definitely talented and was insurance of Smith not remaining the late season starter. I did not want to take three and I did not really want either of the last two, so I am definitely concerned.

John Norton - Slot 5

Overall Strategy

Bank on upside from young RBs, TEs with touchdown appeal, and a semi-flawed WR corps that comes at moderate discounts

Best Pick(s)

Tevin Coleman, 6.08, RB25 and Kamar Aiken, 20.08, WR82 – I’m not a huge fan of Coleman as a player. He’s a flawed runner And he’s been fairly injury-plagued through two seasons. Still, RB25 is far too cheap for his (realistic) ceiling, and I think John landed him around his absolute floor. (I actually think he carries fairly similar draft value to Joe Mixon, who had cost John four extra rounds.) Coleman finished as the per-game RB13 in MFL10s last year, thanks to claiming a solid chunk of Devonta Freeman’s workload. His touchdown total was inflated by a historically great Falcons season, and I don’t expect quite the same across-the-board efficiency. But even as a 16-game backup, Coleman should wander around 9-12 points per week – RB2/3 territory – and would be an easy RB1 as the quasi-featured back in Atlanta. That could happen as the result of a Devonta Freeman injury, or by just a further boost in his complementary role. It would be surprising, but not bizarre; Freeman is an overachiever type who definitively lacks Coleman’s speed and athleticism. Aiken is as strong and value-packed as a late-round pick can be. He seems likely to beat out the disappointing Phillip Dorsett as the third wideout and fourth option in the Colts offense, and No. 2 Donte Moncrief has been moderately disappointing in his own right. Aiken boasts 60-reception potential in an offense that churns out strong touchdown opportunity.

Worst Pick(s)

Joe Mixon, 2.08, RB10 and Evan Engram, 9.05, TE11 – Far be it from me to discourage anyone from chasing upside; I like that John was seeking a sexy rookie workhorse in Round 2. But Mixon carries a hefty sack of question marks into the preseason, and I don’t expect things to be much clearer in September. Mixon should be a prominent piece in the Bengals offense immediately – with the upside to lead the backfield handily – but we’ll need to see it before we assume anything. Mixon will contend with two specialists: dynamic passing-down weapon Giovani Bernard and one-dimension touchdown maker Jeremy Hill. Again, Mixon could easily lead this backfield, but even then I question his rookie upside. The Bengals line was bad even before stud right guard Kevin Zeitler left town, and the Bengals have invested far more in their passing game than the run of late. Mixon is a great upside play, but RB10 seems fairly high to me. Engram is a likable prospect, but I can’t see much fit into the 2017 Giants passing game. The top three wideouts seem all but guaranteed to thoroughly dominate the usage, and rookie Engram faces a tough climb to relevance anyway. He’s essentially a slot receiver himself, so it’s hard to find many four-wide snaps and targets in the projections.

Evaluation

I love that John chose to pay lightly at QB and bundle at TE, which really allowed him to overload his flex capabilities early on. And I generally like the idea of tracking rookie value in the middle rounds of MFL10 drafts. John boasts a stable of young backs with backfield-dominating upside – all acquired in double-digit rounds – and wideouts who can excel if they catch a break or two. There’s really a ton to like on this roster.

post-draft questions

1. Which player on your roster in the 10th round or later are you most excited about? 

Excited is a relative term. The players I took from round ten on are basically all upside guys. I think David Njoku will have a lot of passes thrown his way simply because the Browns are short on quality targets. On the other side of that, I like Austin Hooper for his potential and quarterback, but there are a lot of mouths to feed in Atlanta. There are two players I'm excited to see if  I I am right about. I think Kareem Hunt will pass Spencer Ware for the starting spot at some point. If it happens soon enough to matter for 2017, Hunt will be a steal in round ten. The other player is a guy I have been taking in the last round of most drafts, Tyler Boyd. No one is giving him the time of day after the Bengals drafted John Ross, but I think Boyd will have a much better season than most project. The runs great routs and has excellent hands. Ross is a burner that can take the top off defenses and also has great hands, but he is a rookie and he has trouble staying healthy. Ross will undoubtedly have more yards per catch but I see Boyd catching more passes and having more scores.    

2. Which player do you find yourself avoiding most in drafts this year? 

Todd Gurley is the first player that comes to mind. It's not so much that I am avoiding him though. It's more that he's not falling far enough for me to take a chance after his poor 2016 production. One guy I will not take however, is Christian McCaffrey.  Great talent, can line up anywhere and be a factor yadda yadda. He's 202 pounds which means no goal line work, he's not a feature back and the Panthers offense is not exactly fantasy friendly to running backs. In shory McCaffery is the reincarnation of Warrick Dunn or Reggie Bush. He'll get 8-12 touches a game and score 3-4 times on long plays. That's not all bad in best ball format but I need more from a 4th or 5th round pick. 

3. What advice would you give to someone drafting in a best ball or MFL10 league? 

I think my best advise in any draft is to be flexible. Go in with a plan and a short list of players to target but don't be afraid to shift gears if things are not going as expected.  For this specific format I generally like to target consistency in the first  half and upside in the second.  By consistency I mean guys that are going to get high volumes of touches and targets.  If they are going to handle the ball regularly they  are going to score you points. By upside I mean potential to become a high volume touch player, a big play threat or a red zone  threat. 

Jeff Haseley - Slot 6

Overall Strategy

Target receiving volume and bask in the glow of the PPR format; wait for QB value

Best Pick(s)

Randall Cobb, 7.06, WR36 – Cobb is widely derided in the drafting community after an injury-plagued 2016 that was largely a nothingpile down the stretch. Still, there’s more value to Cobb than meets the eye. Shrewd drafters like Jeff note that, over the first 6 weeks last year (prior to his initial injury), Cobb actually led the Packers in both targets (55) and PPR scoring (15.51 per game). In fact, he was the overall WR7 over that span, and his numbers extrapolate to 104 receptions, 1,035 yards, and 5 touchdowns. He’ll jockey with Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams for attention, sure, but Nelson is 32 and Adams still struggles to perform consistently. There’s a very real chance Cobb reclaims his prominent slot role and chases 90-95 catches, and any Packers weapon needs a modest fantasy bump simply on touchdown upside.

Worst Pick(s)

Julian Edelman, 6.07, WR32 – With Brandin Cooks on board and Rob Gronkowski relatively healthy, I’m projecting a massive drop in opportunity for Edelman. In fact, at this point in the offseason, he checks in projection-wise as my PPR WR49 with a 72-catch, 810-yard, 3-touchdown line. Now, Edelman needs to be prioritized much higher than that; his voluminous history with Tom Brady suggests big PPR value if Cooks struggles or goes down. Still, that’s a dependent position to be in, and Edelman doesn’t boast any real dynamism in his outlook. He struggles mightily to create yards and touchdowns, and even an 80- or 90-catch season would likely finish near the bottom among high-volume slot guys. And considering that ugly floor, I would’ve opted for Emmanuel Sanders here, or a value stab at another position (like Tevin Coleman or Tyler Eifert).

Evaluation

Jeff wisely built his roster on high volume outlooks, coming away with consistently target-dominant receivers and pass-catching backs. That dependability should go a long way in solidifying the dice-rolls he took at RB. They were generally solid ones with great PPR upside, but they’re also relative unknowns individually, meaning they pair great with his high-volume receivers. This is a stout, anti-fragile roster that gets at the heart of the MFL10 format.

post-draft questions

1. You selected four Patriots (Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, James White and Dwayne Allen). Explain why stacking an offense is a good strategy in MFL10 leagues.

If you're going to stack your MFL10 team do it with a highly productive offense like New England. That wasn't necessarily my goal going into the draft, it just worked out that way and I'm glad I did it. If you estimate New England will score over 30 points per game, there's a good chance that one or more of my players will come out with high points that week. When the object of the game is to score more points than the other 11 teams, aim for players on high scoring teams. Doubling or tripling up on players on a high scoring offense is a good strategy to use, especially in best ball format when there is no decision on who to start. You'll reap the benefits without the headache of lineup selection. 

2. You have a decent amount of veteran talent on your team. Why would it be better to have more veterans than upside youth on an MFL10 roster?

Ultimately we want to have a high point producing roster and the best probability of consistently doing that is to have a good portion of veteran talent who have a case history of production each year. The bust factor is higher for players who have yet to prove their worth in the league. Conversely, it's lower for those who have consistently produced. I will not forego a rookie pick here and there, but the majority of my picks in this format will be players I can trust. 

3. Which player on your roster drafted in the 10th round or later do you feel you received the most value?

I selected Rob Kelley at 11.06 (44th RB overall) and believe I received good, if not great value on him at that point of the draft. The consensus is higher on rookie Samaje Perine, but it was Kelley who burst onto the scene with a breakout season last year. I don't think Washington is going to forget about his talent and abilities and automatically hand the ball over to Perine, who has yet to prove himself. Kelley is no aging veteran back. He's only 24 years old and he still has a youthful eagerness to his game. I expect Kelley to be the starter and it's his job to lose. 

Chad Parsons - Slot 7

Overall Strategy

Punt QB and TE; attack the flex, specifically early-round RBs and upside WRs, with abandon

Best Pick(s)

Andy Dalton, 12.06, QB17 – There’s a lot of merit to punting QB in a best-ball format. Top-tier QBs do excel typically, but come at wild and unpredictable costs. Adding one of the top five or six QBs is a boon, but generally not as much of one as the right RB2 or WR3; the opportunity cost for an Aaron Rodgers or a Tom Brady is astronomical. But the next tier is typically a huge group that finishes in a short-ranging jumble, with 8-12 guys posting very close numbers and little advantage in value. As a result, my preference is to merely piece together two or three QBs from that mega-tier and seek to mimic that top-level production week-to-week. Chad signed on to that, and in my mind added the perfect mid-to-late QB in Dalton. Over the past 2 years, when both A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert have suited up, Dalton’s been an easy QB1, averaging 22.6 points. (That would’ve finished QB7 last year.) That speaks to an impressive ceiling, and there’s little concern over floor at a 12th-round draft slot.

Worst Pick(s)

Kevin White, 10.06, WR47 – This is nitpicky, as White came to Chad in Round 10, but I’m really not a fan of White’s. He wasn’t a particularly attractive prospect in my eyes, and his lack of ability to stay healthy or make plays downfield slots him in as a late-round target for me. I don’t hate rolling the dice on him – he’s certainly not without appeal, of course – but both his ceiling and his floor are low as a “who knows?” type in a likely punchless offense. Chad could’ve grabbed a lot more efficiency here from an Adam Thielen, or more upside with Mike Wallace or Corey Davis.

Evaluation

Chad attacked the flex spot here – always a great play in best-ball – and came away with tons of weekly options. He chased upside at appropriate times, putting together a WR stable that features explosive potential up and down but came at relative discounts. The combination of Sammy Watkins and Donte Moncrief should reap some massive weeks, and Danny Woodhead looks better than ever in the flex with Kenneth Dixon now out.

post-draft questions

1. You have several buy low wide receivers who have yet to fully hit their stride. Namely Donte Moncrief, DeVante Parker, Kevin White and even Sammy Watkins. What makes you so high on those players this year?

I expected to get a look at a stud in Round 2 at wide receiver, but the value shifted to running back for my first two selections. In best ball, I typically shoot for high-variance plays when going with a committee approach at a position like wide receiver. In general, I prefer players yet to fully break out and still on the upswing section of the age curve. All but Moncrief have the legitimate No.1 receiver on their depth chart upside situation-wise and meet the break out criteria of pedigree and age. White is my favorite