We are two weeks into the season, and we're starting to get some clarity, which is always a good thing, whether it's good news or bad. The unknown and making important decisions involving the unknown make this hobby challenging. The more we know, the better off we are.

So What Do We Know? A Lot, Actually

The first three weeks of the season are my favorite. So much is being learned at this time. The cream is rising to the top. Opportunities are presented to players, and several have answered the bell with a successful first two games. Injuries are starting to mount at all positions. With every injury comes an opportunity for someone else to fill the void, and the cycle continues. Winning your league is about having key performers and knowing who to target before they rise to power. Although it's not a must, players on winning teams are generally more successful fantasy options.

• Teams that are 2-0: Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Houston, Kansas City, LA Chargers, Minnesota, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and Seattle.
• Teams that are 0-2: Cincinnati, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Denver, NY Giants, Carolina, and LA Rams. 

What Makes a Successful Running Back?

1. Opportunity - There is more of a chance to have success if the opportunity for carries is high. The following teams lead the way in running plays per game. You want to have running backs on these teams. These are also the backs you should target for proactive waiver claims, if available.

• 38.5 Pittsburgh (Najee Harris)
• 37.5 Philadelphia (Saquon Barkley)
• 38.0 New Orleans (Alvin Kamara)
• 37.5 New England (Rhamondre Stevenson)
• 37.0 Green Bay (Josh Jacobs)
• 35.5 LA Chargers (J.K. Dobbins)
• 32.5 Arizona (James Conner)
• 32.5 Washington (Brian Robinson)
• 31.5 San Francisco (Jordan Mason, Christian McCaffrey)
• 31.0 Houston (Joe Mixon, Cam Akers)
• 29.5 Miami (DeVon Achane, Raheem Mostert)
• 29.5 Buffalo (James Cook)
• 29.5 Baltimore (Derrick Henry)

The more plays a team runs, the greater the chance of having positive fantasy success. Understanding which teams run more plays per game and which teams run fewer will give us a better indication of which players to target when it comes to setting a lineup.

Total Plays Per Game

Teams in green run more plays per game, so naturally, the chances are higher for more production. The opposite is true for teams in red. Logic suggests you should tend to start players on teams in green and shy away from players on teams in red. 

• 72.0 DET
• 71.0 PHI
• 70.0 MIA
• 68.5 SF, HOU, BAL
• 67.5 CLE
• 65.0 NE
• 63.0 LAR, SEA, DAL
• 62.5 DEN, GB, WAS
• 62.0 PIT
• 61.0 ARI
• 60.5 TEN
• 59.5 CHI, LAC, NYG, LV
• 59.0 NO
• 54.5 KC, CIN
• 54.0 TB, ATL
• 52.5 JAC, NYJ, MIN
• 51.5 BUF
• 50.5 CAR
• 48.0 IND

Total Plays Allowed Per Game

These teams are allowing the most plays per game. It would stand to reason that you would want to target your players who are playing against the teams in green and shy away from players who are playing against the teams in red.

• 71.5 IND
• 69.5 TB
• 67.5 KC, BUF, SEA, MIN
• 66.0 ATL
• 65.0 JAC, NYJ
• 63.5 CAR, GB
• 63.0 DAL
• 61.5 LAR, CIN
• 61.0 CHI
• 60.5 DET, NO
• 60.0 NYG
• 59.0 DEN
• 58.5 LV
• 58.0 PHI
• 57.5 CLE
• 57.0 NE
• 56.0 WAS
• 55.0 ARI, BAL
• 54.5 TEN, HOU
• 53.0 PIT
• 52.5 LAC
• 51.5 SF
• 47.5 MIA

Positive matchups favoring a high number of plays for Week 3 - Miami at Seattle is a favorable matchup for Miami. The Dolphins are in the top third in total plays per game, and the Seahawks are in the top third in total plays allowed per game. The Texans at Minnesota is another matchup to exploit, particularly for Houston.

Negative matchups in terms of the number of plays for Week 3 - ATL vs. KC, NJY vs NE, and CIN vs WAS

Key Stats for Identifying Wide Receiver Success

Target Percentage (20% or higher of the team's targets)

Use this as a benchmark for who deserves stronger consideration when setting your lineup. These are the players who are consistent targets for their respective teams. (Note: PHI and ATL absent due to MNF)

• 43% Malik Nabers, NYG
• 34% Chris Godwin, TB
• 33% Cooper Kupp, LAR
• 32% Michael Pittman, IND
• 32% Hunter Henry, NE
• 30% Zay Flowers, BAL
• 30% Rashee Rice, KC
• 29% Tre McBride, ARI
• 29% Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET
• 29% Garrett Wilson, NYJ
• 29% Deebo Samuel, SF
• 28% D.J. Moore, CHI
• 28% Nico Collins, HOU
• 28% Justin Jefferson, MIN
• 27% George Pickens, PIT
• 26% Jameson Williams, DET
• 26% Quentin Johnston, LAC
• 26% Davante Adams, LV
• 26% Mike Evans, TB
• 25% CeeDee Lamb, DAL
• 25% Ladd McConkey, LAC
• 25% Brock Bowers, LV
• 25% Tyreek Hill, MIA
• 24% Marvin Harrison, ARI
• 24% Chris Olave, NO
• 24% Rashid Shaheed, NO
• 24% Breece Hall, NYJ
• 24% DK Metcalf, SEA
• 24% Calvin Ridley, TEN
• 23% Amari Cooper, CLE
• 23% Wan'Dale Robinson, NYG
• 23% Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA
• 22% Diontae Johnson, CAR
• 22% Romeo Doubs, GB
• 22% Allen Lazard, NYJ
• 22% Terry McLaurin, WAS
• 21% Gabe Davis, JAC
• 20% Isaiah Likely, BAL
• 20% Khalil Shakir, BUF
• 20% Mike Gesicki, CIN
• 20% Courtland Sutton, DEN
• 20% Dontayvion Wicks, GB
• 20% Adonai Mitchell, IND
• 20% Alvin Kamara, NO
• 20% Pat Freiermuth, PIT
• 20% George Kittle, SF

Receptions on first down

Players on this list are generally thought to be a reliable source. All have at least 6 receptions on first down

• 11 Cooper Kupp, LAR
• 7 Deebo Samuel, SF
• 7 Breece Hall, NYJ
• 7 Davante Adams, LV
• 6 Mike Evans, TB
• 6 Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA
• 6 Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET
• 6 Brock Bowers, LV
• 5 Rashee Rice, KC
• 5 Jalen Tolbert, DAL
• 5 Kyren Williams, LAR
• 5 Hunter Henry, NE
• 5 George Kittle, SF
• 5 Terry McLaurin, WAS

Receptions resulting in a first down

Teams rely on these players to sustain drives and move the ball.

• 12 Chris Godwin, TB
• 12 Nico Collins, HOU
• 9 DeVonta Smith, PHI
• 9 Deebo Samuel, SF
• 9 Malik Nabers, NYG
• 8 De'Von Achane, MIA
• 8 Rashee Rice, KC
• 8 Hunter Henry, NE
• 8 Brock Bowers, LV
• 8 Davante Adams, LV
• 7 Isaiah Likely, BAL
• 7 Cooper Kupp, LAR
• 7 Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA
• 7 Mike Evans, TB
• 7 Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET
• 7 Allen Lazard, NYJ

Players with 10+ targets in each game

• Zay Flowers, BAL

Players with 6+ receptions in each game

• De'Von Achane, MIA
• Brock Bowers, LV
• Nico Collins, HOU
• Zay Flowers, BAL
• Chris Godwin, TB
• DeVonta Smith, PHI

TIGHT END PRODUCTION

Tight ends with 6+ targets in each game

• Brock Bowers, LV
• Trey McBride, ARI

Tight ends with 50+ receiving yards in each game

• Brock Bowers, LV

Tight ends with 5+ receptions in each game

• Brock Bowers, LV
• Trey McBride, ARI

HAVE FANTASY PLAYERS ON HIGH-SCORING TEAMS

Top scoring teams through Week 2 (points scored)

• 91 NO
• 69 ARI
• 65 BUF
• 57 TB
• 55 PHI
• 53 KC
• 52 DAL
• 51 MIN
• 49 SEA, SF
• 48 HOU, LAC
• 45 GB
• 43 NYJ, BAL
• 42 DET
• 41 WAS
• 37 IND, CHI
• 36 NE, LV
• 35 CLE, CIN
• 34 TEN
• 32 ATL
• 31 PIT
• 30 LAR, MIA, JAC
• 26 DEN
• 24 NYG
• 13 CAR

Player Notes: All 32 teams

• ARI - Marvin Harrison jumped from 10% target share in Week 1 to 38% in Week 2. 
• ATL - The leader in team targets is not Drake London (10), not Darnell Mooney (10), not Kyle Pitts (7), and not Bijan Robinson (10). It's Ray-Ray McLoud III with 12. 
• BAL - Zay Flowers has at least a 25% target share in both games. Mark Andrews jumped from 5% team target share in Week 1 to 16% in Week 2. 
• BUF - Khalil Shakir is the only Bills player with a combined 20% or higher through two games. 
• CAR - Xavier Legette had a 24% target share in Week 1 with 0% in Week 2. Chuba Hubbard went from 0% in Week 1 to 19% in Week 2. Despite Bryce Young's putrid 4.4 yards per attempt, Carolina has three receivers with at least 13 yards per catch (David Moore 14.0, Adam Thielen 13.8, Jonathan Mingo 13.7).
• CHI - D'Andre Swift is leading the Bears with a 55% carry share with Caleb Williams second with 23%. Khalil Herbert is sitting at 9% with the team's lone rushing touchdown.
• CIN - Joe Burrow has more rushes (10) than Chase Brown (7) despite Brown's 6.0 yards per carry. Zach Moss leads the team with 21 rushes.
• CLE - Amari Cooper has only 5 receptions on 17 targets. His 17 targets lead the team.
• DAL - Ezekiel Elliott leads the team with 16 carries. Rico Dowdle has 15 carries. No Dallas running back has over 3.7 yards per carry.
• DEN - Javonte Williams (2.1) and Jaleel McLaughlin (2.5) have sub 3.0 yards per carry. Denver has scored one touchdown and 5 field goals in two games. 
• DET - Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams each have a 20% or higher team target share in both games this year. Sam LaPorta is sitting at 12% after two games. 
• GB - Dontayvion Wicks jumped from a 9% team target share in Week 1 to 31% in Week 2.
• HOU - Tank Dell currently has more rushes (5) than receptions (4). 
• IND - Alec Pierce leads the Colts in receptions (8). Michael Pittman has 7, and nobody else has more than 2. Anthony Richardson's 49% completion percentage is the lowest among starting quarterbacks.
• JAC - Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis are tied for the team lead with 6 receptions. Only Carolina has a lower leader in receptions (5, Thielen, Johnson). 
• KC - Travis Kelce has 4 receptions for 39 yards and Patrick Mahomes has as many interceptions (3) as touchdown passes. Kansas City is still 2-0. 
• LAC - J.K. Dobbins is averaging 9.9 yards per carry on 27 carries. Gus Edwards leads the team with 29 carries with only 2.9 yards per carry. 
• LAR - Kyren Williams has two of the team's three offensive touchdowns. Williams' 19% team target share in Week 2 was second highest to Cooper Kupp's 22%, and now Kupp is out for multiple weeks.
• LV - Davante Adams and Brock Bowers are the clear dynamic duo on the Raiders with 18 and 17 targets respectively. The next closest is Jakobi Meyers with 8. Bowers 15 receptions is tied for second in the league.
• MIA - De'Von Achane's 14 receptions are tied for third among all players. 
• MIN - Both Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler are averaging 5.5 yards per carry with 23 and 18 carries respectively. 
• Hunter Henry leads the team with 15 targets (10 receptions). The next closest is 8 targets by Rhamondre Stevenson and K.J. Osborn. 
• NO - Three players have a team target share of 20% or higher - Chris Olave (24%), Rashid Shaheed (24%) and Alvin Kamara (20%). Derek Carr is tied with Baker Mayfield with 5 touchdown passes. 
• NYG - Malik Nabers and Wan'Dale Robinson are the only players doing anything in the Giants passing game, with 43% and 23% team target shares, respectively. Darius Slayton is next with 13%. 
• NYJ - The Jets have 4 touchdown passes, and none of them went to Garrett Wilson. 
• PHI - Jalen Hurts has as many interceptions (3) as touchdown passes. 
• PIT - Pat Freiermuth is one of 7 tight ends with a team target share of 20% or higher this season. (minimum of two games played). The others include tight ends on SF, BAL, ARI, NE, LV, CIN
• SEA - Jaxon Smith-Njigba jumped from a team target share of 8% in Week 1 to 37% in Week 2. He and DK Metcalf both topped 30% in Week 2. 
• SF - Kyle Juszczyk has more targets (8) than Jordan Mason (2). 
• TB - Baker Mayfield is the QB thanks to 474 yards passing, 5 touchdowns, and 1 rushing touchdown. Chris Godwin is tied for second in the league with 15 receptions. (on 16 targets). 
• TEN - Will Levis is tied for third with 7 times sacked. He averages 5.3 yards per throw despite Calvin Ridley having 18.1 yards per catch on 7 catches. 
• WAS - Jayden Daniels and Josh Allen are tied for the league lead with 2 rushing touchdowns each. However, Daniels has 132 rushing yards, while Allen has only 41.

It's Time to Fine-Tune

If you started 0-2 or 1-1, it's not too late to turn things around. Sometimes, one player in your lineup with a big game can make the difference between a win and a loss. There are plenty of players who have yet to have a big week, and some are probably on your roster. Make the right waiver picks and lineup decisions, and don't be afraid to make a trade that could change your season for the better if he hits. Sometimes, you have to overpay for the player you want, but if it works for your lineup, I say do it.

Thanks for reading. Questions or comments, hit me up on X, formerly Twitter.

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