Can you believe we're already a quarter of the way through the season? In fantasy terms, we're even further, considering most leagues' playoffs start in Week 15. Congratulations to those of you with a 4-0 record! All the power to you. This week's edition is more for those who are 0-4, 1-3, or 2-2. I'll take a look at some struggling players from each position and let you know how you should proceed with these players. This list does not include any players who have missed multiple games due to injury.
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes II, KC
- Current rank: QB17
- Opponents played: BAL, CIN, at ATL, at LAC
- Record: 4-0
- Upcoming schedule: NO, BYE, at SF, at LV
The Chiefs may have a 4-0 record but they are a long way away from a polished product. Kansas City will need to overcome several injuries to key offensive players, namely Rashee Rice (knee), Isiah Pacheco (ankle fracture), and Marquise Brown (sternoclavicular). All are expected to miss the season or a large chunk of it. To make matters worse, Travis Kelce at age 35, is starting to show his decline. He is no longer expected to have big games every week. This all comes back to Mahomes as a much larger hill that he will need to climb. So far, he has handled the adversity in the win column, but his stats are a far cry from years past, particularly his interceptions (6) and low number of touchdowns (5). He has also failed to surpass 300 yards passing in four games this season. Last year, through four games, he averaged 19.9 FP/gm (QB8). This year, he is QB17, sitting at 14.1 FP/gm, which is lower than Deshaun Watson. Despite the 4-0 record, Mahomes has been a fantasy disappointment.
Can Mahomes turn it around?
Based on his previous quality of work, superior down-field vision, and capable coaching staff, one must assume he will eventually come around. Rookie speedster Xavier Worthy has produced well for him in limited touches so far. We may start to see more involvement, usage, and targets his way as a result of the dwindling weapons on the roster. Don't be surprised if Kansas City doesn't look elsewhere to bring in a wide receiver, and it could happen soon, especially with a Week-6 bye looming. Players suggested include Amari Cooper, Davante Adams, Diontae Johnson, and even bringing back Tyreek Hill. In the meantime, Mahomes will have to do his magic with a roster that includes the likes of Kareem Hunt, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Justin Watson, the rookie Worthy, and an aging Travis Kelce. Don't expect Mahomes to automatically turn up the production, at least not until Kansas City decides to make a move and bring in some additional talent. Then again, if anyone can make lemonade out of lemons, it's Mahomes.
Result: The demise of Mahomes is not imminent, but he needs to find his way with the talent he has around him. Consider replacing him with a better option at quarterback until he progresses. Look for the Chiefs to make a roster move within the next two weeks.
Kirk Cousins, ATL
- Current rank: QB28, 10.6 FP.gm
- Opponents played: PIT, at PHI, KC, NO
- Record: 2-2
- Upcoming schedule: TB, at CAR, SEA, at TB
Kirk Cousins is at that point in his career where he can help his team win, but he isn't going to do much in terms of fantasy production. We tend to see that with older quarterbacks who pose no threat in the running game. Aaron Rodgers is at this point as well. So is Andy Dalton and Derek Carr to name others. In order to be fantasy-relevant, high yardage and touchdown production is needed. Cousins has disappointed in those areas so far this season. He has not surpassed 250 yards in a game and he has one game of two touchdowns. Through four games he has four touchdowns and four interceptions. At this time last year, Cousins was QB4 thanks to three 300-yard games with 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.
Why has he declined?
An Achilles tear ended his season in Week 8 of 2023. While he has battled back, one must wonder if that is keeping him from his full potential as a quarterback. Cousins tore his right Achilles, and he is right handed, which means he pushes off with his right leg when setting to throw down field. If there is slight uncomfortableness or instability, it could affect the trajectory and power of his throws.
He did look awfully impressive in the last two minutes of Week 2 against Philadelphia, where he drove down the field in surgical fashion leading the Falcons to a game-winning touchdown drive. Where is that Kirk Cousins?
What can we expect moving forward?
Cousins is 15th in passing yards (864) and 18th in yards per attempt (7.3). Of 18 quarterbacks with at least 115 attempts, only Bo Nix has been sacked fewer (5) than Cousins (6). He has a decent supporting cast of talent led by Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Darnell Mooney. Kyle Pitts is also in the mix, but he's been unreliable so far. Atlanta is 10-for-38 on third down (29th in the league), and they commit a turnover on 13% of their drives (6th highest). If they can solve those issues, Cousins has a chance to rise up the ranks, but don't expect top-15 numbers. His ceiling is likely around 20th or the high teens.
Result: Expect Cousins to bounce back but not be at a point where he is a must-start in fantasy circles.
Running Backs
Javonte Williams, DEN
- Current PPR rank: RB39, 8.2 PPR FP/gm
- Opponents played: at SEA, PIT, at TB, at NYJ
- Record: 2-2
- Upcoming schedule: LV, LAC, at NO, CAR
Javonte Williams leads Broncos running backs in snaps with 146. The next closest is Jaleel McLaughlin with 80. As the primary running back, Williams has 129 yards rushing on 40 carries. He also has added 12 receptions for 80 yards on 14 targets. These numbers aren't horrendous, but they aren't enough to make Williams a consistent fantasy threat.
The Denver offense, in general, has been uninspiring.
Denver has a total of four touchdowns in four games, two of which are rushing touchdowns by rookie quarterback, Bo Nix. The other two is a rushing touchdown by McLaughlin, and a receiving touchdown by Courtland Sutton. Denver has the 6th fewest passing yards (639) and 12th fewest rushing yards (425). They have the second-worst third down conversion rate at 24.6% (14-for-57) and their touchdown percentage in the red zone is an NFL-worst 33% (4-for-12). In short, their offense under Bo Nix's guidance has so far been unexciting.
Williams is two years removed from a multiple-ligament knee recovery. He may never be the same player he was when he first entered the league, where he broke tackles at an alarming rate that led to him being one of the highest yards-after-contact backs in the league. We may not see him perform at that level again, but he has shown that he is still capable of being a productive back when given ample touches. He is mired in a slump that is mostly due to the ineptness of the offense. If Bo Nix can overcome his rookie woes or if Nix is replaced by Jarrett Stidham or Zach Wilson, there may be a chance for Williams to provide respectable fantasy numbers for us. An injury to Tyler Badie has solidified a backfield that will consist of Williams, McLaughlin, and Nix. Don't forget Nix has a grasp on the carry share as well with 22% for the season. Expect about 80% of the teams carries to be distributed to these three with a 40-20-20 share led by Williams.
Result: It appears as if Williams is capable of more, but the Denver offense is holding him back. As long as he is getting 3-5 receptions each game, he is worthy of a flex option at least.
Bijan Robinson, ATL
- Current rank: RB20, 14.2 FP/gm
- Opponents played: PIT, at PHI, KC, NO
- Record: 2-2
- Upcoming schedule: TB, at CAR, SEA, at TB
Bijan Robinson has not performed terribly, but he also has not lived up to the high expectations of being a first-round fantasy draft pick. He’s getting a lot more playing time than Tyler Allgeier, with 182 snaps compared to Allgeier’s 57, and has twice as many carries (55) as Allgeier (27). Despite getting plenty of opportunities, his production has suffered. Robinson is the only Falcons back with a touchdown, but from a fantasy perspective, his performance hasn’t met expectations, especially with a new coaching staff in place. The new staff, led by head coach Raheem Morris and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, was supposed to be a breath of fresh air for Robinson after he was misused by former head coach Arthur Smith, who is now the coordinator for Pittsburgh. However, that has not necessarily been the case for Robinson so far this year. Atlanta has struggled to convert in the red zone, with only a 40% touchdown rate (4 touchdowns in 10 visits to the red zone), which is the 4th worst in the league. Throughout his career, Robinson has found it challenging to score. He has five total rushing touchdowns in 21 games. In 12 career carries inside the ten-yard line, he has only three rushing touchdowns. Additionally, in 21 games, he has only two 100-yard rushing games.
Is Robinson a bust?
Robinson’s performance in his career has been somewhat disappointing considering that he was drafted as the 8th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. However, he has been able to make a significant number of receptions (58 last season and 15 this year), which has positively impacted his overall fantasy ranking. Despite not living up to the high expectations, he finished 9th last season and has not missed a game in his young NFL career. No, he is not a bust, but he is on the verge of being a disappointment.
Result: Don't give up on Robinson. He is still only 22 years old with a big career ahead of him. As long as he is getting volume, he is worth a weekly start. Better days are ahead for 2024 but he needs to start finding the end zone.
Wide Receivers
Garrett Wilson, NYJ
- Current rank: WR32, 11.4 PPR FP/gm
- Opponents played: at SF, at TEN, NE, DEN
- Record: 2-2
- Upcoming schedule: at MIN (London), BUF, at PIT, at NE
Like Bijan Robinson, Garrett Wilson is a significant part of his team's offense and has shown promise at times. However, his performance has not lived up to the high expectations for 2024. Despite facing challenges with quarterback play, Wilson managed 83 and 95 receptions in his first two years in the league and achieved over 1,000 yards in both seasons. He was expected to take a leap forward this year as the primary deep threat for quarterback Aaron Rodgers, but that hasn't happened. Wilson leads the team with 34 targets, while Breece Hall and Allen Lazard are tied for second with 24 targets each. His 20 receptions on those 34 targets (58.8%) are concerning. It's important to note that Aaron Rodgers can be demanding, especially for a young receiver who is still learning his tendencies.
You may recall it took Davante Adams time to develop chemistry with Rodgers in Green Bay. We could be seeing a silimar outcome happening in New York with Wilson. Additionally, Rodgers specifically requested Allen Lazard to join him on the Jets, providing a more familiar option for the veteran quarterback and leaving Wilson to navigate his role. Wilson's slow start suggests that he and Rodgers are not fully in sync, despite knowing that the future of the Jets' deep passing game depends on their connection. While Wilson may not immediately become a go-to option with Rodgers as the quarterback, there's hope that they will figure it out as the season wears on.
Result: Don't give up on Wilson. It is taking some time to develop chemistry with Rodgers but there is hope that when it happens, he won't look back.
Brandon Aiyuk, SF
- Current rank: WR59, 7.4 PPR FP/gm
- Opponents played: NYJ, at MIN, at LAR, NE
- Record: 2-2
- Upcoming schedule: ARI, at SEA, KC, DAL
Brandon Aiyuk was a popular story during training camp and preseason. He did not participate in team activities mostly due to contract negotiations and a trade request. He missed the first 17 practices of training camp as a result before finally agreeing on a four-year $120 million dollar extension with the 49ers. He has played in all four games with San Francisco this season, but there appears to be some rust as he acclimates himself to the game once again. Aiyuk is second on the team in targets with 25, (Jauan Jennings 27) with only 13 receptions giving him a 52.0 reception percentage. The rust is evident and he has yet to score a touchdown while his teammates, Jennings and George Kittle have three and two respectively.
Did Jauan Jennings replace Aiyuk?
It is possible that the coaching staff and management were not pleased with how Aiyuk played his cards in his negotiation efforts and that may be a stemming factor for why he has not produced to the quality that we've seen from him in the past. There may be some love lost, but ultimately, he did sign an extension and the team needs him to be a key piece of the offense moving forward, especially with the injury to Chistian McCaffrey. In his place, San Francisco and quarterback Brock Purdy have found a hard-working, productive receiver in Jauan Jennings who has inserted himself into the 49ers offensive plans, at least for now.
Don't expect Aiyuk to be a missing piece for long. He missed most of camp and is working on knocking off the rust. It is a long season and it will most likely see Aiyuk bounce back to his old way before too long. There is a risk of injury due to his time missed and lack of practice conditioning but he appears to have escaped injury with four healthy games.
Result: Better days are ahead. He wasn't expected to be strong out of the gate missing nearly all of camp and preseason.
Tight Ends
Mark Andrews, BAL
- Current rank: TE39
- Opponents played: at KC, LV, at DAL, BUF
- Record: 2-2
- Upcoming schedule: at CIN, WAS, at TB, at CLE
Mark Andrews was a top 5 tight end in the league from 2019 to 2022. He played only 10 games last year due to a broken fibula and ligament tear in his ankle. He has not been the same since. He also was involved in a car accident in August that proved to be more scary than harmful.
His fantasy relevance has disappeared
Andrews has 9 total targets in four games, including zero in each of the last two games. Something is going on with him and it is not favorable to him being a consistent weekly start on your fantasy roster. It is possible that he will overcome whatever slump or situation that is affecting him, but we also could be witnessing his immediate decline at age 29. He is not as athletic as his teammate Isaiah Likely and the Ravens have taken advantage of that fact. Baltimore is also feeding Derrick Henry and he is producing when given touches. He has 350 yards rushing in the last two games alone. As a result, the passing game for Baltimore has dropped off. Lamar Jackson has 182 and 156 yards passing in the last two games and all receivers have seen a drop-off. That. style of play can't possibly be sustained over the full season, but it is not helping to revitalize Andrews' unfortunate slump.
Result: Don't plan on Andrews bouncing back. Even if he does, don't expect consistent production each week.
Sam LaPorta, DET
- Current rank: TE15, 6.7 PPR FP/gm
- Opponents played: LAR, TB, at ARI, SEA
- Record: 3-1
- Upcoming schedule: BYE, at DAL, at MIN, TEN
Sam LaPorta had an outstanding rookie season as a tight end, with 86 receptions for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns. Alongside Amon-Ra St. Brown, he was a key player in the Lions' passing game. Expectations were high for him and the Lions offense in 2024.
Expectation vs. Reality: In the first four games of the season, LaPorta has yet to score a touchdown and has not caught more than four passes in a game. Last year, he had 12 games with 5 or more catches. Injuries, including a hamstring injury and an ankle sprain during the preseason, may have impacted his performance. Additionally, the emergence of Jameson Williams has limited LaPorta's targets.
Despite the slow start, it's anticipated that LaPorta will recover and become a consistent starter. While he may not match his impressive 2023 numbers, he is expected to remain a top-10 player in his position.
Result: Expect LaPorta to improve as he heals from injuries. A bounce back to the top 10 seems imminent.
Thank you for reading. Questions, comments, and suggestions are always welcome. You can find me on "X", formerly Twitter.
