We are three weeks into the season, and the fantasy landscape is starting to take shape. This week I examine the quarterback position and share my thoughts on which players are safe, on the rise, and declining.
QUARTERBACK
The top quarterbacks are taking shape
The current top 3 after three games
- Josh Allen BUF, 73.9 FP
- Jayden Daniels WAS, 69.7 FP
- Lamar Jackson BAL, 69.5 FP
Last year, the top 3 after three games were
- Kirk Cousins (MIN) 76.7 FP - finished 24th in 8 gms
- Justin Herbert LAC, 70.4 FP - finished 18th in 17 gms
- Tua Tagovailoa MIA, 69.8 FP - finished 10th in 13 gms
What does that tell us? Injuries are always a big factor. The final top 3 from 2023 all played 17 games. Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Dak Prescott. No quarterback in the final top 10 missed more than two games. Justin Fields finished the highest of any quarterback who missed more than two games. He played in 13 games and finished 17th. The moral of the story is to stay healthy. Derek Carr was the lowest-ranked quarterback of anyone who played 17 games. He finished 15th. Even Bryce Young, who played in 16 games, finished 23rd. In 2022 and 2021, Lamar Jackson finished 14th and 16th, respectively, despite playing in only 12 games in both seasons. This is great information, but if he can't play any given week, especially in the fantasy playoffs, what good is he?
Which quarterbacks tend to stay healthy? Games played by quarterbacks since 2020
- Jared Goff, DET 71 games
- Josh Allen, BUF 71 games
- Lamar Jackson, BAL 70 games
- Jalen Hurts, PHI 70 games
- Baker Mayfield, TB 70 games
- Derek Carr, NO 70 games
- Geno Smith, SEA 69 games
- Patrick Mahomes II, KC 69 games
- Gardner Minshew II, LV 69 games
- Jordan Love, GB 68 games
- Tua Tagovailoa, MIA 66 games
- Justin Herbert, LAC 66 games
- Russell Wilson, PIT 63 games
- Matthew Stafford, LAR 62 games
- Kirk Cousins, ATL 61 games
If we change that to since 2021 we can include Dak Prescott and Trevor Lawrence. Since 2022, we can add Brock Purdy.
Which quarterbacks are rising?
Naturally, the first instinct is to see which ones have the most rushing yards. This includes the following starters like Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Anthony Richardson, Justin Fields, Josh Allen, Daniel Jones, etc. Josh Allen's rushing numbers have not been off the charts like we've seen in year's past, mostly due to a hand injury, but he's still the top-ranked quarterback. Could he get even better? If he runs more, he will most certainly be better.
Bo Nix is QB20 despite throwing for zero touchdowns. He has 107 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. If he can find the end zone through the air, his numbers will improve. Anthony Richardson may not be quarterback-ready at this stage of his career, but he has the athleticism to make plays, which is keeping his ranking in the top 20 despite 3 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions. If he can solve his errant throws and turnover issues, he could move up the ranks with sheer talent alone. Daniel Jones has been known to run the ball when needed, and now he has a bonafide WR1 in Malik Nabers at his disposal, which will help his passing numbers. He could be a player on the move despite his shortcomings. Sometimes, all a quarterback needs is an elite wide receiver. Sam Darnold is an example of that. Darnold has a meager 35 rushing yards, but he is QB5 through three weeks with 8 touchdowns and over 8 yards per attempt. I'm sure Justin Jefferson is a big factor in his success. Could Jones be next to rise? It's the NFL, anything can happen. Look at Andy Dalton.
Caleb Williams has shown promise, but he is still working out the kinks of being a quality NFL quarterback. He does have 67 yards rushing and is capable of more if the opportunity presents itself. It may take Williams 4-5 more games, if not longer, to get acclimated to the speed of the NFL and the trickery that defenses throw at him. If he stays on top of his game and shows improvement over the next few games, he could find himself rising up the ranks.
Which quarterbacks are falling?
Aaron Rodgers, NYJ is playing pretty well right now. He has 5 touchdowns with 1 interception and a 2-1 record. He is showing Jets fans that there is hope to be playing in January. Is he a good fantasy starter? That's debatable, but the numbers suggest no. He isn't going to add additional points by running the ball, and he hasn't had a 300-yard game since 2021 and only one game of 3 touchdown passes or more in that same time range. Yes, he missed all of 2023 with an Achilles injury, but what we're seeing from Rodgers isn't moving the fantasy needle. He can still finish in the top 20 if he stays healthy, but anything more than that may be an uphill climb.
Deshaun Watson, CLE is 1-2 with Cleveland through three games, and he has yet to eclipse 200 yards passing. He does have 85 yards rushing with a rushing touchdown, which is keeping him in the top 15. His 4.75 yards per attempt (min 200 passing yards) is the lowest of any quarterback not named Bryce Young. Is this a sign of things to come that continue to befall the once dominant quarterback or will his numbers improve thanks to decent rushing totals and players returning from injury, like David Njoku? The low yards per attempt and paltry 57.8% completion percentage suggest he may stay in the doldrums.
Matthew Stafford, LAR started strong and has faded in the last two games. Injuries to Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp have affected the Rams' passing game. Stafford has not surpassed 225 yards passing since Week 1, and he has a scanty 2 touchdowns and 1 interception in three games with zero rushing yards. In order for Stafford to stay afloat in the quarterback rankings, he will need high yardage plus touchdowns, and right now those are hard to come by. He is not worth hanging onto in single quarterback leagues.
You could argue that both Jared Goff and Kirk Cousins are also not the greatest fantasy options. Both are sitting outside the top 20 at QB26 and QB25, respectively. Neither is going to get you points on the ground and both have at least 3 interceptions with no more than 4 touchdown passes in three games. Both quarterbacks have the ability to put up a three-touchdown game any given week, but without high yardage and multiple scores per game, they are looking at a ranking no better than QB15-20.
Quarterback Tiers
Sitting pretty
- Josh Allen - Favorite for MVP
- Lamar Jackson - Rushing yards keeping him near the top
- Kyler Murray - Utilizing Marvin Harrison Jr. well. Haven't seen his best rushing output yet
- Jalen Hurts - Playing horribly yet still a top producer
- Brock Purdy - Playing well despite injuries in receiving corps
Good for now
- Jayden Daniels - Clubhouse leader for rookie of the year
- Dak Prescott - Passing game keeping him relevant
- Sam Darnold - Justin Jefferson a big reason for his early success
- Baker Mayfield - Turning a corner and playing like a #1 overall pick
- Patrick Mahomes II - Not the same Mahomes, but staying afloat
- C.J. Stroud - A bit of a slow start but supporting cast is strong
- Joe Burrow - Same as Stroud. Might need running game to rise up to get some wins
- Anthony Richardson - Athleticism keeping him afloat
- Derek Carr - Klint Kubiak is on fire as Saints' OC, Carr benefiting
- Geno Smith - Staying steady and making plays when needed
- Jordan Love - Should be the same upon his return. Next week?
- Aaron Rodgers - Consistently efficient but not outstanding
- Kirk Cousins - Up and down player with no high-end potential
- Jared Goff - same as Cousins with a better supporting cast
- Gardner Minshew II - candidate to be replaced if he can't rebound
On the verge and rising
- Andy Dalton - Has experience and know-how to captain the Panthers offense
- Daniel Jones - Has the skills to rise with help from Malik Nabers
- Justin Fields - Rushing utilization is grounded, for now
- Caleb Williams - Glimpses of brilliance. Dealing with growing pains
- Bo Nix - Improvement in his passing game will determine if top 15
- Will Levis - If he stops making mistakes, he can be fantasy-relevant
- Tyler Huntley - Miami needs someone if Tua Tagovailoa is out indefinitely
- Drake Maye - It's only a matter of time, but he can't be rushed.
- Malik Willis - Surprisingly effective as a passer. Needle pointing up for 2025
- Jameis Winston - Candidate to replace Deshaun Watson
- Aidan O'Connell - Could move into starter's role if Minshew falters
- Taylor Heinicke - Justin Herbert is dealing with multiple injuries. Next man up?
On the edge and falling
- Deshaun Watson - Horrible yards per attempt and completion percentage. Replaced soon?
- Trevor Lawrence - House of cards in Jacksonville at the moment
- Matthew Stafford - Suffering from lack of good consistent weapons
- Jacoby Brissett - Bridge quarterback for Drake Maye.
- Bryce Young - Needs to to learn how to walk before he can run
Injury concerns
- Justin Herbert - High-ankle sprain. Risky vs KC in Week 4, Bye in Week 5, may sit him.
- Tua Tagovailoa - Out indefinitely with concussion
- Russell Wilson - Calf re-injury and consistent play from Justin Fields, keeping him away
- Skylar Thompson - Not the answer for a struggling Dolphins team without Tagovailoa
Interesting Quarterback Stats
Passing first downs on first down
- 16 Matthew Stafford, LAR
- 14 Joe Burrow, CIN
- 14 Brock Purdy, SF
- 14 Gardner Minshew II, LV
- 14 Geno Smith, SEA
- 13 Baker Mayfield, TB
- 12 Patrick Mahomes II, KC
- 12 Caleb Williams, CHI
Passing first downs on third or fourth down
- 17 Caleb Williams, CHI
- 15 Aaron Rodgers, NYJ
- 15 C.J. Stroud, HOU
- 14 Daniel Jones, NYG
- 13 Dak Prescott, DAL
- 13 Jalen Hurts, PHI
- 12 Josh Allen, BUF
- 11 Joe Burrow, CIN
- 11 Baker Mayfield, TB
- 11 Sam Darnold, MIN
Passing yards leaders on third down
- 272 Aaron Rodgers, NYJ
- 254 C.J. Stroud, HOU
- 242 Dak Prescott, DAL
- 226 Jalen Hurts, PHI
- 210 Daniel Jones, NYG
- 207 Josh Allen, BUF
- 182 Geno Smith, SEA
- 181 Malik Willis, GB
- 174 Baker Mayfield, TB
- 168 Jared Goff, DET
- 165 Kyler Murray, ARI
- 161 Caleb Williams, CHI
Most touchdown passes inside the 10-yard line
- 6 Sam Darnold, MIN
- 4 Daniel Jones, NYG
- 3 Joe Burrow, CIN
- 3 C.J. Stroud, HOU
- 3 Baker Mayfield, TB
Passing and rushing yards
- 956 Lamar Jackson, BAL
- 915 Jalen Hurts, PHI
- 906 Brock Purdy, SF
- 873 Dak Prescott, DAL
- 835 Jayden Daniels, WAS
- 823 Geno Smith, SEA
- 796 Kyler Murray, ARI
- 774 Joe Burrow, CIN
Quarterbacks with an interception in each game
- Will Levis, TEN
- Patrick Mahomes II, KC
- Anthony Richardson, IND
- Jared Goff, DET
- Jalen Hurts, PHI
- Gardner Minshew II, LV
Sacked
- 16 Deshaun Watson, CLE
- 15 Will Levis, TEN
- 13 Caleb Williams, CHI
- 13 Baker Mayfield, TB
- 11 Trevor Lawrence, JAC
- 11 Gardner Minshew II, LV
- 11 C.J. Stroud, HOU
- 10 Matthew Stafford, LAR
QB Rating
- 133.7 Josh Allen, BUF
- 120.4 Andy Dalton, CAR
- 117.3 Sam Darnold, MIN
- 115.7 Derek Carr, NO
- 111.8 Jayden Daniels, WAS
- 110.7 Baker Mayfield, TB
- 109.2 Brock Purdy, SF
- 107.5 Joe Burrow, CIN
- 104.6 Kyler Murray, ARI
- 103.1 Aaron Rodgers, NYJ
Completion % 70+
- 80.3 Jayden Daniels, WAS
- 75.0 Josh Allen, BUF
- 74.8 Geno Smith, SEA
- 74.4 Baker Mayfield, TB
- 73.7 Gardner Minshew II, LV
- 73.3 Justin Fields, PIT
- 72.6 Brock Purdy, SF
- 70.9 Joe Burrow, CIN
- 70.6 Jalen Hurts, PHI
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