Footballguys Staff Mock Draft 1: PPR, 12 team with Flex, MFL10 format (Best Ball)

Photo: USA Today Sports

On July 8th, twelve members of the Footballguys staff got together for the site's first mock draft of 2017. Below is the league scoring format and bylaws. 

League Parameters

• 12 teams
• 20 roster spots
• Starting Lineup
• 1 quarterback
• 2 running backs
• 3 wide receivers
• 1 tight end
• 1 flex (either a running back, wide receiver, or tight end)
• 1 team defense

League Scoring

• Offensive Players
• 4 points - passing touchdown
• 6 points - rushing/receiving touchdown
• 0.05 points - passing yard
• 0.1 points - rushing/receiving yard
• 1 point - reception
• Team Defense
• 6 points - touchdown
• 2 points - turnover recovered
• 2 points - safety
• 1 point - sack
• 10 points - Offensive points against: 0-0
• 7 points - Offensive points against: 1-6
• 4 points - Offensive points against: 7-20
• 1 point - Offensive points against: 21-29
• -3 points - Offensive points against: 30-99
• 6 points each - Number of Defensive and Special Teams Touchdowns

THE DRAFT ORDER

The draft order was created randomly. After the first round, the draft continues in a regular serpentine manner. Click here for the Full Draft pick by pick

1. Bear Heiser
2. Maurile Tremblay
3. Scott Bischoff
4. Ari Ingel
5. Jeff Tefertiller
6. Dan Hindery
7. Matt Bitonti
8. Mark Wimer
9. Ryan Hester
10. Jeff Haseley
11. Stephen Holloway
12. Chris Feery

Starting with Bear Heiser from the 1.01 spot, Justin Howe provides an unbiased evaluation of each team's draft performance.

Bear Heiser - Draft Slot 1

Overall Strategy

Pay up at QB, one-and-done at RB, throw darts at rookie receiver potential

Best Pick(s)

Travis Kelce, 2.12, TE2 – Bear was shrewd to prioritize Kelce at 24 overall. He wouldn’t be around in Round 4, and he legitimately valuates right around this spot anyway (though he’s currently going around 30 in MFL10s). No tight end on the board boasts a higher floor – it’s hard to imagine him winding up with less than third-round value – and the ceiling to outdo even Rob Gronkowski himself. Gronkowski finds himself in a crowded offense and, as usual, an injury question mark, while Kelce towers over the Kansas City passing game and hasn’t missed a game as a pro. I have to applaud Bear for taking the stab, snatching up almost certain WR2 numbers at a TE position that looks as volatile as ever.

Worst Pick(s)

Mike Williams, 10.12, WR 53 – I like that Bear bought a lot of late-round rookie lottery tickets to fill out his wide receiver and tight end depth. But I’m expecting very little opportunity for Williams in Year 1. His offense is ultra-crowded, and the Chargers have several proven options ahead of him. Considering that and the decent chance he’s not healthy for training camp, his path to rookie targets looks bleak. WR53 is definitely a fair spot to start looking at untested upside, but this was a bit too aggressive for my take in tracking such a shaky year-one prospect. Bear passed on several cheap veterans (like Kenny Britt, who simply shouldn’t have been around this late, as well as Jordan Matthews and Will Fuller) with similar ceilings and much better floors.

Evaluation

Bear set the tone for an aggressive approach by snapping up Kelce early, then kept his foot on the gas with several upside-driven picks. Some were especially strong, like Andrew Luck in Round 4 and stabs at high-ceiling rookie receivers down the stretch. This wound up a volatile roster, but it’s rooted in guys with strong ceilings for volume and usage, which is the best kind of volatile.

Draft Slot 2 - Maurile Tremblay

Overall Strategy

Leap at the top QB, prioritize WR slightly at the flex spot

Best Pick(s)

Davante Adams, 5.02, WR25 & Randall Cobb, 6.11, WR36 – Maurile chased both Adams and Cobb – snatching them up in good ADP-relative spots – and when the teammates are solid together but inversely high-ceiling, I love the idea. In a best ball setting this is a nice, insulated gamble. From a fantasy value perspective, they coexist quite well – both averaged 15.5 PPR points over Weeks 1-7, when both were fully healthy. And if either goes down or falls off the map, the other will benefit wildly in terms of usage and touchdown potential. With the duo, Maurile was able to secure two certain top-35 WRs who individually boast top-12 upside.

Worst Pick(s)

Having participated in drafts with Maurile myself, I can say I’ve never really seen him make a “bad” pick. The only real issue I have with this turn is his prioritizing of Carson Wentz as his QB2. Wentz only topped 20 points 3 times as a rookie – only once after Week 3 – and never topped 24. He posted obscenely low yardage (6.23) and touchdown (2.63%) rates, and I don’t think the mere addition of Alshon Jeffery makes him a more dynamic option, especially as his passing volume looks set to decline. I probably would’ve stabbed at upside elsewhere here, adding a high-ceiling flex option while scooping up a stronger QB2 prospect a round or two later.

Evaluation

Maurile drafted strongly, locking down high RB1 production with the second overall pick and devoting his high-middle rounds to building a deep, dynamic receiving corps. In my eyes, he went bold at the right spots – like stopping Christian McCaffrey’s semi-slide late in Round 4 – and added real volume potential in the late rounds. It’s hard not to like the finished product.

Draft Slot 3 - Scott Bischoff

Overall Strategy

Value-based and balanced, with a clear premium spent at TE

Best Pick(s)

Mike Gillislee, 7.03, RB27 – He’s among the most debated players in the Twitterverse right now, and he’s got his drawbacks in a wildly crowded backfield. But he still boasts upside far beyond this draft slot. Of the Patriots’ backfield options, he’s the only one with a real resume in terms of inside and short-yardage running, and New England can spin fantasy gold out of that role. LeGarrette Blount finished last year as the MFL10 RB8, after all, reaching 17 points 5 times. While it’s a stretch to project Gillislee to match Blount’s 18 touchdowns, he still boasts a top-15 RB ceiling with all of that potential for volume and scoring opportunity. To stop his fall at RB27 is a strong boon, especially on a roster that already boasts two workhorse backs. It helps that Scott nabbed James White later, also at something of a discount, to help lock down production from a high-paced, high-scoring offense.

Worst Pick(s)

Marvin Jones, 9.03, WR47 – Scott clearly values Jones quite a bit, and I understand the temptation to chase after the blistering way he started 2016. And I can see the potential for a touchdown increase with Anquan Boldin gone and not really replaced. But Scott passed on several guys with better outlooks in my eyes, including Kenny Britt, Cameron Meredith, Rishard Matthews, and Mike Wallace. To me, all of those guys carry much stronger ceilings and very similar floors.

Evaluation

Scott clearly chased the best prospects available, without an apparent position-stock strategy. I like his method of doing that: secure a stud RB, then chase workhorse candidates and upside receivers. However, I think his TE splurge may have left him vulnerable there, considering that Tyler Eifert is, as always, an injury risk entering the year. I may have redirected a later pick to covering that TE3 slot. Still, overall, I think Scott boasts a healthy blend of upside and safety.

Draft Slot 4 - Ari Ingel

Overall Strategy

Dominate the flex, cobble together a RB corps, let the QBs come to you

Best Pick(s)

Kirk Cousins, 10.09, QB12 & Tyrod Taylor, 11.04, QB14 – Ari was the first of the bunch to wait on the QB spot, which I generally always support. Quarterbacks and QB tiers typically wind up bunched together so tightly that, unless massive value presents itself in the middle rounds, it’s often best to hold off. Here, Ari reaps the benefits: He walks away with two QBs in that meaty part of the QB2 curve, securing similar value to most combinations that started picking them a few rounds earlier. And he picked two strong options to do it with. Cousins and Taylor combined for 15 games of 20+ points last year – as many as Drew Brees and Russell Wilson, but at a much lower cost.

Worst Pick(s)

C.J. Anderson, 6.09, RB25 – I really loved what Anderson brought to the table behind Peyton Manning in 2015. Now holding off a stable of backs that may be more talented than he is, in an offense that no longer burns many barns, Anderson looks to me like a RB3 prayer. His efficiency took a huge post-Manning dive last year, and I’m not sure it improves in 2017. Frankly, I’m expecting him to find himself in a fairly even timeshare with Devontae Booker. I like that Ari was chasing bell cow potential, but he might’ve been better-served going after a stronger floor.

Evaluation

I love to see a draft that eschews early QBs, waiting until the cost/value lines intersect around 9 or 10. And that’s exactly what Ari did, stockpiling flex talent the entire way. He didn’t have to reach wildly for anyone, walking away with a healthy blend of proven floors (like Michael Crabtree) and legitimate upside plays (Leonard Fournette, Martavis Bryant). It’s hard to knock a strategy like this, and Ari executed it quite well.

Draft Slot 5 - Jeff Tefertiller

Overall Strategy

Shades of zero-RB, hammer home the wideouts, sit on QB and TE

Best Pick(s)

Stephon Diggs, 5.05, WR28 – I’m not entirely sure how last year’s per-game WR15 fell 13 spots in this draft. He caught 6.5 passes a game in his breakout, and his volume outlook didn’t really change, so why the concern? What’s scary is that Diggs claims to have posted that WR15 mark while battling a nagging groin injury for most of the year. That might not mean much (or anything), but a discrepancy of this magnitude is jarring and strikes me as silly. I’m not one to question my fellow Footballguys, but why the hesitation? Drafters opted for the old, the oft-injured, and the downright unreliable over Diggs, arguably the latest-taken receiver bearing a true chance at 100 receptions. Jeff wisely snapped his slide in Round 5, cementing the league’s strongest WR stable by a mile or two.

Worst Pick(s)

Doug Martin, 6.08, RB24 – It’s not that I hate the zero-RB approach – I love it, actually – and it’s not that I don’t think Martin has a chance to serve as a reliable RB2 after his suspension. But I see so much upside on the table that Jeff passed on here. Martin will likely return in Game 4 to a somewhat logjammed backfield, and as one of the league’s worst receiving backs, I doubt he’ll recoup much passing-game work. He could very well max out as a two-down interior runner upon his return, and considering his ultra-shaky resume, neither his ceiling nor his floor look very sexy. Jeff could’ve scooped Mike Gillislee, Danny Woodhead, or one of a handful of other cheap RB2 types – guys who project to play the whole year and profile a little better in terms of touchdown opportunity and/or PPR production.

Evaluation

I love Jeff’s WR-robust approach, and the fact that he stocked up on RBs with bell cow upside. Cobbling together a RB corps that way is very doable, and the technique is insulated when the drafter amasses this much WR dynamism. There’s potential for this roster to take down an MFL10 almost entirely on the strength of its wideouts.

Draft Slot 6 - Dan Hindery

Overall Strategy

Ultra-balanced and value-based, with all starting offensive slots filled by Round 7, pay up at QB

Best Pick(s)

Kenny Britt, 11.06, WR57 & Cameron Brate, 14.07, TE25 – I can’t decide which was the stronger and more glaring steal here. Dan somehow pulled Britt at WR57, a full 36 spots below his 2016 finish. How did this happen? Britt isn’t the most dependable performer out there, but his move to Cleveland should be lateral at worst, and it’s hard to envision fewer than 125-135 targets going his way. WR57 is laughably low for that kind of volume outlook. As for Brate, I’m on the bandwagon for a top-15 TE finish, so I’m loving this value as well. He’s got a strong connection with Jameis Winston, he produces touchdowns at a high level (11 on just 81 career catches), and his only competition is a particularly raw rookie. First-year TEs rarely produce much, and Howard wasn’t used extensively in college; his learning curve looks relatively sharp. I’m fully expecting Brate to again top 50 catches and 6-7 scores.

Worst Pick(s)

Greg Olsen, 5.06, TE4 – It’s nitpicky, but I didn’t love Dan’s Olsen pick. To me, this was drafting at a guy’s absolute ceiling, which I try to avoid doing with older players. Besides, with a TE class as volatile as this one, I’m almost always looking to wait if I miss out on the top few options. Only a handful of guys look poised to threaten for TE1 status this year, and Olsen isn’t one of them; his floor looks stable in the TE4-7 range but his ceiling doesn’t extend beyond that. Dan passed on a number of too-cheap flex guys to chase him. Still, in my eyes, it’s just one tiny black mark on an otherwise great value-based draft.

Evaluation

Dan clearly wasn’t swayed by any position-heavy or position-light strategies, opting instead to follow his value projections and fill his lineup quickly. He certainly loaded up on high-volume, high-floor guys; his RB1, WR1, WR2, WR3, and TE1 project near the league leaders in usage. That kind of stability allowed Dan to target calculated stabs down the road, like C.J. Prosise in Round 9 and Jamaal Charles in Round 15. It’s a nice, safe mixture he’s put together here.

Draft Slot 7 - Matt Bitonti

Overall Strategy

Attack RB early, then piece together high ceilings at WR, pay up at QB

Best Pick(s)

Will Fuller, 11.07, WR58 – Man, do I love Fuller. He was arguably last season’s top wideout prospect by many reputable metrics, and if Houston’s QB play improves in 2017 then Fuller’s outlook soars. He’s exceptionally fast, he produced yardage and touchdowns at an ungodly level at Notre Dame, and his NFL debut was more impressive than is being given credit for. His rookie-year concerns hardly bother me at all. Fuller is quite young – just 22 at the start of his second season – and dropped passes aren’t much of a concern in my eyes. Drops are, generally speaking, a highly variable stat from year to year, and it doesn’t seem to predict much by way of future volume or efficiency; it affects all receivers, even the elites. Fuller was charged with dropping 5.4% of his rookie targets, a lower rate than we saw from Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Davante Adams, Mike Wallace, and a host of other high-volume, high-production guys the previous year. How’d their 2016s go? And are you shying away from them going forward?

Worst Pick(s)

Corey Davis, 5.07, WR29 – Look, I love Davis the Prospect. He checks just about all of the boxes I want from a rookie: He’s big, he’s athletic, he was mega-productive in school, and he was drafted high. He’s a fantastic dynasty prospect, and he does carry the ability to shine as a rookie. But I don’t think he’ll have the opportunity. This is suddenly one crowded Titans receiving corps, and I’m not sure how Davis fits into it as a rookie. Rishard Matthews was obscenely efficient and productive last year; he, Eric Decker, and Delanie Walker are far too good to be pushed into the margins. And that’s precisely what would need to happen for Davis to return on WR29 value. Even if we project the Titans to leap forward majorly in passing volume, it’s hard to project them beyond the middle of the league in attempts. To outproduce guys like Willie Snead, Emmanuel Sanders, and Jamison Crowder, Davis will need a ton of happenstance to fall his way right out of the gate. I applaud Matt’s aggressive mindset, but I think it was just far too early for this leap.

Evaluation

Matt clearly wants to ride the wave of 2016’s RB-happy finishes. I can’t argue too much with that, especially considering that his first two RB picks project for massive volume. Neither Todd Gurley nor Jordan Howard has much by way of competing talent, and both should be offensive focal points for their respective teams; 300 touches looks very doable for each. That’s a strong foundation to build on; I would’ve been a hard “out” on this roster had he opted to open with, say, Devonta Freeman and DeMarco Murray. Matt took a lot of chances at WR, but there should be plenty of floor there for a competitive roster, assuming that early RB investment holds value.

As a side note, I’ll say that this draft bodes well for Gurley’s outlook. Matt is Footballguys’ preeminent voice on offensive lines, so his vote of confidence in Gurley suggests he’s more or less on board with the Rams’ 2017 front unit.

Draft Slot 8 - Mark Wimer

Overall Strategy

Win the flex and punt the rest

Best Pick(s)

Tyrell Williams, 7.08, WR40 – Here’s a potential league-winner. Williams’ 2016 breakout was downright sexy, though many expect it to wane in 2017. I really don’t. Keenan Allen returns to the lineup, of course, but I still project plenty of attention for the outside guys (Williams, Dontrelle Inman, and rookie Mike Williams). I’m expecting Travis Benjamin’s offensive usage to tumble to accommodate that. Besides, Allen’s extensive injury history teases strong WR2 upside for whoever remains standing. The Chargers offense is traditionally loath to use four-wide sets; they were dead last in the league in such snaps last year, after all. If that holds at all, it locks in Williams as a top-four option on virtually every passing snap. Granted, the offensive coaching staff has changed, but I don’t foresee some massive personnel/usage shakeup in Philip Rivers’ age-35/36 season.

Worst Pick(s)

Tyreek Hill, 3.08, WR16 – I don’t hate Hill a bit, but WR16 looks awfully ambitious for such an unproven guy – especially one who’s somewhat miscast as a target-dominating No. 1 wideout. Even though he looks like the de facto top wideout in Kansas City, Mark passed on several proven No. 1 types with much easier pathways to 120 targets. Hill will battle for attention with target vacuum Travis Kelce, and the reserve wideouts look to get more involved with Jeremy Maclin out of the picture. And his rookie touchdown rates seem difficult to repeat. Hill’s ceiling is relatively solid, thanks to the sorry state of that WR corps, but it’s not on the level of a Sammy Watkins or an Alshon Jeffery – two guys with more proven track records of high-volume, high-efficiency seasons.

Evaluation

I certainly love that Mark punted the QB and TE spots here. He’s looking to win with his flex spot – a strategy that makes a ton of sense, considering the wild variability we see from the flexes from roster to roster. I may have gone a little more WR-robust – especially in the first two rounds – but there’s not much to dislike about his roster construction. He boasts several weekly WR starter candidates, enough RBs to fill in the gaps, and solid quarterbacking culled from the tail end of the draft.

Draft Slot 9 - Ryan Hester

Overall Strategy

Win the flex and mega-punt the rest

Best Pick(s)

Melvin Gordon, 1.09, RB6 & Rishard Matthews, 10.04, WR51 – Where to start? I’ll heap some praise on Ryan for landing two of my most discussed guys at below market value. Gordon is, in my eyes, the clear-cut RB4 on the board, and barring injury I’d be shocked if he doesn’t challenge for the league lead in touches. And furthermore, I’ll boldly state that I see the gap between him and RB5 LeSean McCoy as narrower than the gap between him and the consensus top three. Gordon is a three-down volume sponge who both catches a boatload of passes and dominates the Chargers’ short-yardage offense; his 2016 PPR and touchdown totals were league-tilting even as he missed almost four whole games. Injury history aside – yes, most of his RB1 peers have injury histories as well – Gordon looks like a clear top-5 pick to me. Ryan was wise to pull the trigger there. I also love the pick of Matthews, who was extremely efficient in his first year as a Titan and, in my eyes, stakes the strongest claim to the No. 1 role in 2017. Productive up and down the field and in the red zone, Matthews’ 65-945-9 line looks like a fair bet going forward, provided the Tennessee passing game steps in volume as expected. With the additions of Corey Davis and Eric Decker, fantasy drafters are flocking away from Matthews, so Ryan scored excellent value here. The WR51 slot is just absurd.

Worst Pick(s)

Marshawn Lynch, 4.04, RB16 – I just can’t get on board with Lynch at this ADP. It’s not just his advanced age, nor his exceptionally punished body. We can’t forget that this backfield was stocked in last year’s draft with two dynamic, athletic dual threats. It’s hard to believe Lynch will not only excel, but also keep Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington glued to the sidelines. I expect him to lose plenty of passing-down work, with modest-to-moderate success as a grinder and extensive risk for injury or even re-retirement. In a best-case scenario, Lynch looks like a “two-and-a-half-down” plodder with strong touchdown appeal – 10-12 scores wouldn’t surprise me – but his floor is exceptionally low. Our Adam Harstad has tirelessly discussed fantasy prospects playing on their last legs, namely here and here, where he concludes that 31-year-old RBs are likely not long for the NFL and rarely produce well on their way out. I just loved Ryan’s draft, but I would have opted for more upside here. Rookies Joe Mixon and Christian McCaffrey, for example, carry similar floors but arguably stronger ceilings – and neither are anywhere close to 31.

Evaluation

Ryan’s attack-the-flex draft was similar to Mark’s from Slot 8, but cranked to 11 by a more shrewd version of Nigel Tufnel. Ryan didn’t target a QB until Round 13 (QB21), and he cobbled together late-late-round TEs with a blend of volume (Charles Clay) and touchdown (Austin Hooper) opportunity. Like Mark, Ryan is looking to dominate with his flex spot, and that’s a very viable play with this kind of RB/WR talent. His guys boast floors and ceilings that run with the best of them.

Draft Slot 10 - Jeff Haseley

Overall Strategy

Win the flex – with a definitive WR lean – and punt the rest

Best Pick(s)

Tevin Coleman, 6.03, RB22 – I’m not the world’s biggest fan of Coleman – he’s a one-dimensional runner who’s not elusive at all – and I definitely expect regression from the Atlanta offense. But RB22 is markedly low to snag him. Coleman sees near-RB2 usage on his own (11.6 touches per game, with solid red-zone and receiving workloads), and an injury to Devonta Freeman would make him an immediate RB1 without looking back. No, we shouldn’t be playing the “what if injuries?” game and chasing handcuffs, but Coleman is no mere handcuff, and he came much cheaper than some of the serious RB2 question marks out there. Someone will need to explain to me why Ty Montgomery, whose ceiling isn’t as sexy as Coleman’s 16-game floor, came off the board two rounds earlier.

Worst Pick(s)

Samaje Perine, 7.10, RB31 & Rob Kelley, 10.03, RB39 – I don’t fault Jeff for chasing workhorses, but this was a bit rich for my tastes. Even if one of them (almost certainly Perine) runs away with the starting job in Washington, he likely wouldn’t make a huge fantasy dent. In 2016, Kelley only topped 15 points in 3 of his 9 starts, and neither he nor Perine would steal any appreciable receiving work away from Chris Thompson. I’m only seeing a RB30 or so ceiling for either of these guys, so I don’t find the combo package worthy of 2 picks over the first 10 rounds.

Evaluation

Again we see a late drafter target the flex spot heavily. Jeff spent his first 8 picks and 9 of his first 10 on RBs and WRs in an attempt to outdo the field every week from his flex. Considering his strong mix of ceiling and floor, it was a pretty solid play. Jeff focused on high-high-volume wideouts and a cast of RBs one injury/benching away from true workhorse status. I also love his late-round upside stabs; Curtis Samuel could conceivably register 60 catches and a Percy Harvin-esque load of peripheral touches as a rookie.

Draft Slot 11 - Stephen Holloway