Top 2 Rushing Matchups
Denver vs Buffalo
While Denver received some positive news for starting running back J.K. Dobbins, the Broncos will once again be without him this week as the running back looks to return from a foot injury suffered back in November. Dobbins was seen doing individual workouts on a side field during practice on Wednesday, but there are no signs that he will play this week. That ultimately means that RJ Harvey will get the bulk of the carries this week for the Broncos, which ultimately means that this offense will be somewhat limited unless Harvey can break a long run. Averaging just 3.7 yards per carry on the season, that does not begin to tell the whole story. While all runs count, Dobbins' 3.7 yards per carry is greatly inflated due to three runs of 38, 40, and 50 yards this season. Without those three runs, he is averaging just 2.9 yards per carry, as he's not getting consistent yardage and not breaking 5+ yards nearly enough, given his 5-foot-8, 200-pound frame. Along the offensive line, there are still some significant questions at center as Alex Forsythe replaced Luke Wattenberg in Week 17 after Wattenberg suffered a shoulder injury that cost him his season. Forsythe is a 2023 seventh-round pick who has not seen much playing time throughout his career, so playing in his first playoff game will be a big test for the inexperienced center.
While it was the Jacksonville passing game that took most of the headlines against Buffalo last week, the rushing offense for the Jaguars was equally impressive. Travis Etienne Jr. and Bhayshul Tuten amassed 118 yards on just 14 carries, while Etienne also added 49 receiving yards and a touchdown against this Bills defense. This is a run defense that has struggled all season, as they're allowing the sixth-most rushing yards to opponents and the most of any playoff team. They're also allowing 4.9 yards per carry, which is the third-worst in the NFL. We seemingly repeat ourselves every week, but this is a defense built to stop Kansas City, and they've had to prioritize pass rush, linebackers, and safeties who can cover, while hoping their run defense is good enough. On the injury front, the Bills appear to be getting some good news and some bad news heading into this game. The good news is that their top defensive tackle, Ed Oliver, appears to be returning after being on IR since Week 6 with a bicep injury. He was a limited participant in both Tuesday and Wednesday's practices, and his presence would be a significant upgrade to a defensive line that desperately needs a run-stopper. However, the bad news is that it is appearing unlikely that safety Jordan Poyer will be able to play due to a concussion suffered last week. Poyer is a key to this defense, avoiding big plays, as the veteran is still an excellent tackler and someone that they can bring down into the box on obvious rushing plays.
Seattle vs San Francisco
The good news for Seattle is that its rushing attack is operating at peak capacity heading into the playoffs. The last time we saw this unit, Ken Walker III and Zach Charbonnet ran for a combined 171 yards on 33 carries, which was a critical factor in the Seahawks securing the NFC's number one seed. The bad news is that predicting which of these two running backs will have a breakout performance is incredibly difficult. Given Zach Charbonnet's recent hot streak (110 yards, 2 touchdowns in Week 17), he has actually out-carried Ken Walker III 35 to 31 over the last two weeks. The 17 and 18 carries he's had in the last two games are the two highest individual games he's had all season. Meanwhile, Walker's 31 carries over the last two games are his second-highest output over a two-game stretch. This has become a run-heavy team by necessity due to all the injuries, but the passing game should be getting healthier as they get both Rashid Shaheed and Jake Bobo back to full strength after playing through multiple injuries. Running back depth is something to watch here, as outside of Walker and Charbonnet, the Seahawks are incredibly thin, having already lost George Holani and Kenny McIntosh to IR, which means Cam Akers is likely the practice squad guy who they would call up as a third running back for this game.
For San Francisco to have a chance in this game, they're going to need to shut down the run. In their first meeting, Seattle ran all over the 49ers, gaining 171 yards on 33 carries. Last week was not much better as Saquon Barkley ran for 106 yards, which was just the fourth 100-yard performance from the 2024 All-Pro. There was some hope that All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner would have been able to return for this game, but he has been ruled out as of Thursday. The 49ers will also be without their best run-stopping safety, Ji'Ayir Brown, after he suffered a hamstring injury and did not practice all week. Expectations should be low for San Francisco, despite being a unit that held up most of the season, they can only survive so many injuries and without their three best run-stoppers at each level as Nick Bosa was lost for the year early on in the year, this is an under-talented unit especially up the middle as defensive tackles Jordan Elliott and Kalia Davis have both struggled mightily this season.
_(4)_png)