Top 5 Passing Matchups
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
For most of the season, the Jaguars have heard that they're winning despite their quarterback, and that Trevor Lawrence is bound to collapse down the stretch. It hasn't yet happened, though, and now Lawrence comes fresh off arguably his best game as a pro. He's still a bit inconsistent, but he's averaged 284 yards over the last 3 weeks at 8.7 per throw, with 10 touchdowns and no interceptions. Jakobi Meyers has been a godsend since supplanting the shaky Brian Thomas Jr.. as Lawrence's top target. Thomas chimes in splash plays, but Meyers has claimed a 24% target share and produced 10+ PPR points in 6 of 7 tries. Both wideouts will work against an injury-ravaged Colts secondary with a very slim playoff chance left and a disappointing finish to their season. Meyers is the safe play, but Thomas' sky-high 14.3 aDOT means he's always a threat to break the matchup.
It feels safe at this point to call the Colts' trade for Sauce Gardner, who's played all of 161 snaps, a failed shot at the moon. Gardner got hurt almost immediately and failed to improve a weak Colts pass defense. If coach Shane Steichen is to be believed, Gardner will play again this season despite the door closing quickly on a playoff bid. This short week feels unlikely, though, so we're likely to see more of replacement-level bodies like Mekhi Blackmon, Johnathan Edwards, and Cameron Mitchell. The team has already been without Charvarius Ward, every bit as impactful a cover man as Gardner, for much of the year. With neither lockdown cornerback available to erase a chunk of the field, the Colts' loose coverage schemes elsewhere are easily exposed. Over the past 5 weeks, opponents have averaged a stunning 36.4 PPR points from the WR position. Quick, athletic, slot-type receivers like Rashee Rice (8-141), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (7-113), and even George Kittle (7-115-1) have produced with ease in this matchup. The rejuvenated Jaguars offense protects beautifully against this stripped-down secondary.
Atlanta vs LA Rams
Credit Kirk Cousins for admirable work in relief of the injured Michael Penix Jr. Over six starts and chunks of other action, Cousins has dinked and dunked to serviceable numbers, including a 373-yard shootout with Tampa Bay. And this week's matchup at least hints at a repeat performance. The Rams rush the passer well, and from all angles, but Cousins can beat the rush with his approach. He's released the ball at the fourth-quickest speed of all passers, and he's been sacked on only 9 of 226 dropbacks. He'll continue to lean heavily on the short ball this week, and Drake London and Kyle Pitts Sr. are dynamic enough after the catch to make it matter. London bounced back last week from a long absence to claim 8 of Cousins' 34 targets, and he's capable of massive lines in shootouts. He'd topped 100 yards in 5 of 6 games leading up to the injury. Pitts has been the favored son of late; he'll likely peel back from 99 yards a game, but he's certainly made a stamp.
The Rams were an average defense for most of the season, with scattered talent across the depth chart. That said, they've leaked badly on the stat sheet of late, giving up 270+ yards in three straight games. Anyone who watched Sam Darnold and the Seahawks work their way back into their Week 16 date saw the subtle holes in this young group. Cornerbacks Emmanuel Forbes Jr. and Cobie Durant are good situational playmakers, but both can be exploited down the field. Jaxon Smith-Njigba became the eighth opposing wideout to register 95+ yards in this matchup, but some, like Amon-Ra St. Brown (13-164-2), Jameson Williams (7-134), and Michael Wilson (11-142-2) have simply broken out recently. Overall, they're highly reliant on a pass rush that sits 8th in pressure rate but just 14th in sack rate. Kirk Cousins and the Falcons have Drake London back in the fold, and they're unafraid to throw short, safe passes to beat such a rush. (And they do it at high volumes, at least when game flow makes it necessary.)
Minnesota vs Detroit