Journeyman or Starter?

Zack Moss is a divisive player this year. The running back currently has an ADP of RB26 and 88th overall, but his outlook varies widely across the industry. At Footballguys, we're generally lower on Moss than the consensus.

• Consensus ADP: RB26
• Consensus Footballguys Ranking: RB34
  • 3 of 14 analysts rank Moss ahead of his ADP, with RB23 being the high mark
  • 5 of 14 analysts rank him lower between RB28 and RB32
  • 2 analysts rank him RB36 (the last of the RB3s in a 12-team league)
  • 4 of 14 analysts rank him lower than RB37, me included

The Bull and Bear Cases

The bullish case for Moss is as follows:

• Moss proved last year he could be a workhorse in Jonathan Taylor's stead in Indianapolis
• Cincinnati signed Moss in free agency
• The Bengals have a wide-open opportunity with Joe Mixon traded to Houston
• Quarterback Joe Burrow will remain healthy and keep opposing defenses honest

The bearish case for Moss, on the other hand:

• Moss is playing for his third team in five seasons
• The Bengals didn't commit significant money to signing Moss
• Moss' uninspiring career metrics are more predictive than his short sample size last year as a starter
• The Bengals offensive line grades below average, particularly as run blockers

Let's unpack each talking point...

Last Year's Streak

One of the hardest parts of being a fantasy football analyst is dealing with small sample sizes. Even if a player stays healthy, we only have a maximum of 17 games to analyze (previously 16 games a few years ago). This limited data can often lead to flawed statistical analysis based on small, largely unpredictable samples. We can get into trouble when we assume that a single season's performance is predictive. However, as fans of momentum and storytelling, we sometimes convince ourselves that smaller sample sizes are more predictive than they actually are.

Which brings us to Zack Moss' four-week span from last season. After spending 2.5 seasons in Buffalo, the Bills traded Moss to the Colts mid-season in 2022 in exchange for third-down specialist Nyheim Hines. He was a part-time contributor in 2022 and entered the 2023 season as Jonathan Taylor's backup. With Taylor out to start the season in his recovery from a torn ACL, Moss was inactive in Week 1, too (an arm injury from camp), but was active and started in Taylor's place in Weeks 2 through 5.

Weeks 2 through 5, 2023

• 84% of Snaps
• 89 rushes
• 445 rush yards
• 3 rush TDs
• 8 receptions
• 72 receiving yards
• 1 receiving TD
• 79.7 fantasy points (0.5 PPR)
• No. 4-ranked fantasy RB

That four-game stretch is the main reason why people are excited about Moss this year. The logic goes, "When given the chance, Zack Moss proved he can be a top-10 fantasy back." 

But that's faulty logic for a number of reasons:

1. A four-game sample size isn't predictive
2. Moss' production over that four-game span wasn't all the unusual
3. Moss looked far less impressive in two other stints as the Colts' fill-in starter

Moss' 4-week stretch was 1 in 409

Our friends at Stathead have tons of amazing data-farming tools, including something called the Span Finder. That allows you to search for statistical parameters over a period of consecutive games. Using the tool, I searched for the following:

• Running Backs
• At least 517 yards from scrimmage (Moss' total)
• At least 4 touchdowns (Moss' total)
• Over 4 games in the same season
• The last 20 years (2004-2023)

The results may surprise you. In the last twenty years, there have been 409 four-week spans that match or exceed Moss' totals. FOUR. HUNDRED. AND. NINE. instances. Does that sound like an impressive feat?

Players with at least one 4-games stretch of 517 yards and 4 TDs (2004-2023)

Takeaways:

• 409 instances in 20 years
• 403 of those 409 were better fantasy spans than Moss
• 78 different running backs have done it at least once

Moss' other stints as the Colts starter

• Moss was a far more pedestrian performer in his other five starts with the Colts
• Most notably, he returned to the starting lineup later in the 2023 season and mustered a disappointing RB30 performance

Signing with the Bengals

This offseason was arguably the most dynamic for running back movement in a generation, and Moss is one of many veterans who signed with new teams in hopes of being the starter. The good news is that the Bengals running back room is wide open, as the team opted to trade (after initially announcing plans to release) long-time star Joe Mixon.

Mixon's role in 2023:

• 257 carries (81% of the Bengals RB total)
• 1,034 rushing yards (80%)
• 64 targets (72%)
• 52 receptions (70%)
• 376 receiving yards (70%)
• 12 touchdowns (92%)

The opportunity is there. But whether those vacated touches are guaranteed to head Moss' way is another story entirely.

A Low-End Contract

Of the 12 veteran running backs to change teams this offseason, Moss' contract is the second-lowest in terms of guaranteed money. The Bengals are basically paying him $3 million this year to compete for a role, with no downside if the experiment doesn't work out.

2023 Veteran RB Signings

Chase Brown...Are You a Believer?

Whether you buy into Zack Moss as overhyped is as much about your view on Chase Brown as Moss. Brown was a sixth-round draft pick last year after leading the Big Ten with 1,883 yards at Illinois, to go along with 13 touchdowns. While Brown was a productive workhorse, his draft stock reflected a series of minor flaws, including an undeveloped receiving role and a penchant for running into contact. Our own Matt Waldman graded him as the 10th-best prospect in his class, seeing his upside as a rotational starter if he could improve as a receiver and blocker and pursue better angles in the open field. He started his rookie season as the RB3 behind Mixon and Trayveon Williams. But Brown steadily worked his way into the coaches' good graces and overtook Williams midway through the season. 

How does Brown compare to Moss? 

• Brown is the incumbent and already knows the system well
• Moss has more playing experience, both last year (with Indy) and in his career
• Brown is cheaper ($1mm) and younger (24)
• Neither are natural receivers
• Neither grade out as particularly strong pass protectors

Don't let Brown's 6th-round draft status make you think he's not a great athlete, though. In fact, he's demonstrably more athletic than Moss.

Additional Context

No matter what you think of Moss, he's not an elite athlete and doesn't create his own yardage. Last season, Moss ranked 65th in yards after contact, while Brown ranked a more respectable 22nd. Moss ranked 36th in breakaway percentage, versus Brown at 10th. Moss ranked 79th in yards per route run, while Brown ranked 1st (albeit in a very small sample). The point is that nearly every metric you can use to evaluate the two players points in Brown's direction. 

The Athletic's Paul Behner Jr. had this to say in his Bengals 53-man roster preview:

The staff sees the roles of Brown and Moss as evolving. They want to see how camp and the preseason play out and better understand when and how to best use the duo. There will be some form of rotation, but who lands in passing downs, who starts, how the offense bends toward them will all be determined over the next few months. Remember, the team has shifted its running game strategy midseason multiple times before, so this process will extend far beyond August. 

A Step Down in Offensive Lines

The final issue we must address is the difference between the Bengals' and Colts' offensive lines. Simply put, the Bengals line isn't as good, at least based on the analysis of some of the industry's best-known offensive line experts.

• 2023 Final Rankings (PFF)
  • Colts -- No. 3 offensive line
  • Bengals -- No. 26 offensive line
• 2024 Preseason Rankings
  • Footballguys Matt Bitonti
    • Colts -- No. 6
    • Bengals -- No. 11
  • PFF
    • Colts -- No. 3
    • Bengals -- No. 21

Opportunity Cost Evaluation

At Moss's ADP (85th overall, 26th RB), you're not just choosing him against other tailbacks; you're also risking the opportunity cost of passing up other players in the same vicinity. Here are the players going six picks before and after Moss:

Personally, I'd much rather draft everyone on this list over Moss, save for perhaps Christian Watson and Jake Ferguson. On the other hand, Chase Brown is going four rounds later and is the 40th RB off the board, on average.

Zack Moss' Recent Stats