NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Showdown Game Theory

With so many question marks entering Week 1, it's wise to look to Vegas for tonight's expectations. Sportsbooks project a close, relatively low-scoring affair similar to the teams' Divisional Round meeting (Chiefs, 17-10).

Of course, in the DFS world, we don't particularly care who wins or loses, nor by how many. We're trying to identify who will be responsible for those points. And that's much easier to do for the Ravens, who boast a much tighter and more condensed group of skill players. Most of their production will come from Lamar Jackson and just a few weapons, compared to the wide mishmash of contributors on the Chiefs. That's why I'll be somewhat Baltimore-heavy tonight: less guesswork and, in some key spots, lower rostership.

I have a theory, one that may or may not hold water, that Week 1 contests are played more heavily by the general – and perhaps less scrutinizing – public. Practically speaking, that could lead to inflated rostership for better-known players. Does Patrick Mahomes II get a "general public" boost in rostership? Did enough people follow the Chiefs' injury pecking order to know about Justin Watson? These are points to consider as we look to diversify tonight.

Injury Roundup

Both teams enter the season mostly healthy. The only notable absence for fantasy purposes will be Chiefs receiver Hollywood Brown (shoulder), but the team added significant depth in the offseason.

Captain Considerations

1. Travis Kelce
2. Lamar Jackson
3. Isiah Pacheco
4. Derrick Henry
5. Mark Andrews

Baltimore Showdown Players

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson (CPT or FLEX)

Jackson is the preferred Showdown play to Mahomes because he simply has more ways to be impactful. We've all been burned of late by a Mahomes performance in the neighborhood of 225 yards and 2 TDs – solid and game-winning, but failing to move the DFS needle. That's rarely the case for Jackson, who closed 2023 with six straight games of 20+ DK points. Consider that he threw just 22 passes in the Divisional Round but also ran 11 times (scoring twice) and posted a week-winning 39.1 points. The Ravens rarely succeed when Jackson isn't throwing and/or running for serious production. And they rarely lose without Jackson fighting desperately to the end.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry (CPT or FLEX)
Justice Hill (FLEX)

It's plenty fair to question what Henry has left after 2,185 touches. But the Ravens don't seem concerned: they've guaranteed him $4 million and enter the season with almost no depth behind him. Henry will be woven into whatever game script the Ravens find themselves in, which is great news for his volume. And while the public frets about Lamar Jackson stealing goal-line chances, take solace in the fact that Jackson scored only one of his five touchdowns from inside the five last year. There's ample room for both Ravens backs to feast, and if they jump ahead early, they'll likely win your Showdown.

Hill is a career backup, with just 256 touches through 4 seasons, but give credit where credit's due. Drafted before J.K. Dobbins, Hill has fought through numerous dings and challengers, and he now enters Week 1 as the only healthy change-up back to Henry. Hill will take at least half the passing-down snaps, possibly more, and he doesn't need many touches to triple up his modest $4,400 salary.

Wide Receivers

Zay Flowers (FLEX)
Rashod Bateman (FLEX)
Nelson Agholor (FLEX)

There's a lot to like about Flowers' outlook. Like his counterpart Rashee Rice, Flowers isn't a classic downfield burner, but he gets open at an elite rate (fifth in the NFL last year) and excels after the catch. Those traits point to a No. 1 wideout who can catch 7+ balls in any game script. He'd offer CPT value at a slightly lower salary, but I'd rather pay less and get the same volume outlook in Mark Andrews.

Bateman and Agholor are mere dart throws. Neither managed to reach 55 yards in a game last year, and if the Ravens have their way, neither will be too involved tonight. Of the two, Bateman is the more intriguing, given his 2023 snap rate (58%) and red-zone usage (10 targets, second on the team).

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews (CPT or FLEX)
Isaiah Likely (FLEX)

Andrews missed nearly half of 2023, returning briefly in the playoffs as a part-timer. That's depressed his pricing quite a bit; he cost $8,800 in his last healthy slate, yet he checks in at just $6,400 tonight. Yes, Zay Flowers appeared to take a big step in the postseason. But $6,400 is simply too cheap for an elite receiver who (a) drew a 24% target share last year and (b) ended on pace for an 81-984-11 stat line. Andrews feels just as likely as Travis Kelce or Rashee Rice to lead this entire Showdown in targets, and he's still used frequently near the goal line.

Likely is one of the game's best reserve tight ends, but he caught just eight passes over nine games behind Andrews.

Under the Radar

None – this group is streamlined and fairly priced.

Kansas City Showdown Players

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes II (FLEX)

Yes, I said what I said above, in Jackson's section. Still, you'd be silly to discard the world's greatest player from any Showdown process. Like Jackson, he'll be intimately involved in most of what his offense does. Also like Jackson, he'll add juice on the ground, having taken 37 rushes over his last 6 games. Be advised, though, of a lower ceiling than the public tends to expect from Mahomes. With Isiah Pacheco and the defense leading the way, Mahomes produced 20+ DK points in just 3 of his last 13 games of 2023. The Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice stacks are fairly obvious, too, which helps to make Mahomes a middling CPT choice.

Running Backs

Isiah Pacheco (CPT or FLEX)
Samaje Perine (FLEX)

Thankfully, this looks like one of the clearest and most stable backfields in all of fantasy football. Pacheco is the ball-dominant lead back, and the team has stocked very little depth behind him. He took 118 touches over the Chiefs' final 5 games of 2023, with 10 of those coming from inside the 10. The team would love nothing more than a game script that hands him 20 carries, and he's as likely as anyone this side of Travis Kelce to find the end zone.

The veteran Perine wasn't a particularly exciting preseason add; there's no reason to believe he'll pull a Jerick McKinnon and catch nine touchdowns this year. Still, he checks in far too cheaply for the Chiefs' No. 2 and passing-down back. There's a 10-touch ceiling in play here, one that will likely cost $6,000+ in future slates.

Wide Receivers

Rashee Rice (CPT or FLEX)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (FLEX)
Xavier Worthy (FLEX)

Perhaps the public will enter the year sour on Rice after his dicey offseason. He makes for a fantastic Week 1 play at this price tag, and a depressed roster rate can only boost his standing. When we last left the on-field version of Rice, he had laid heavy claim to the No. 1 wideout role, taking on 25% of team targets from Week 11 through the Super Bowl. (For reference's sake, Travis Kelce took 28% over the same span.) If Rice sees a Kelce-like volume of throws from Patrick Mahoems, he will produce as a top-tier receiver. Of course, that's not settled science: the team added Worthy, Smith-Schuster, and Hollywood Brown to the mix in the offseason. But Brown won't play tonight, Worthy is a rookie, and Smith-Schuster may just be cast-off depth. It would be an upset to see Rice draw fewer than 8-10 looks.

That's a harsh descriptor for Smith-Schuster, who simply found no fit in New England, catching just 29 passes for 260 yards and a single touchdown. But he's plenty familiar with Mahomes and this system: they hooked up for a 78-933-3 line over 16 games in 2022. DraftKings doesn't expect a quick impact, pricing Smith-Schuster at just $1,000 tonight – Malik Cunningham will cost you more. If Mahomes seeks out friendly faces, Smith-Schuster can obliterate that salary with just one or two well-timed catches.

Worthy enters his debut a pure wild card. He's a 4.38 speedster in the Tyreek Hill mold. One could make the case that he's what Mahomes and the offense have lacked over the last two years. Still, the absence of Brown should make Worthy wildly popular tonight, so I'm staying away – especially at $5,800. While I could absolutely see Worthy catching a deep ball or two and hitting value, I'm not paying up for it. I'd much rather split the difference between Smith-Schuster and Watson than go spend up on rushing touchdown upside.

Tight End

Travis Kelce (CPT or FLEX)

Kelce's appeal is obvious: he draws nearly 30% of Mahomes' targets, and they come all over the field. Anything short of 7-9 receptions would be an upset, and Vegas gives only Derrick Henry better odds of finding the end zone. Don't overthink roster rates here; you want Kelce when he's playing.

Under the Radar

Justin Watson (FLEX)

The public will likely zig to Worthy and Smith-Schuster, so I'll be zagging to Watson, who's not quite as cheap ($3,200) but profiles similarly well. Mahomes has long trusted Watson in downfield (18.5 yards per catch) and jump-ball (5 touchdowns on 42 receptions) situations. Five or six Watson targets could carry a ton of weight, and Showdown is won by low-rostered players going off.

Kickers and Defenses

Two elite kickers are squaring off, and while neither produced much in their playoff meeting, Justin Tucker and Harrison Butker make for solid differentiation plays. Vegas expects a relatively low 46.5 points and a field goal to determine it; it would surprise no one to see a 23-20 slugfest. Butker kicked 44 field goals over his 21 games last year, while Tucker drilled 35 in 19. If I'm choosing, though, give me Butker. The Ravens were elite in red-zone touchdown rate in 2023 (6th in the NFL), while the Chiefs were below-average (19th) and haven't added anyone obvious to the short-yardage picture. That kind of usage could win this Showdown.

I'm not interested in either defense, both of which will spend the evening corralling a future Hall of Fame quarterback.

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