This week was full of surprises. Some season-long stars had unusually quiet performances, while unexpected middling players delivered in big spots, leading to thrilling upsets. For some, it was a tough break. For others, it was thrilling glory. Either way, if you're here, you've likely navigated the chaos and made it to the semi-finals. The home stretch is here.
Three Up
QB Aaron Rodgers and WR Davante Adams, New York Jets
The start of the season for Aaron Rodgers and the Jets was grueling, but it hasn't been all bad lately. Whether it's been distance from the injury or lack of expectations and pressure, Rodgers is rewinding the clock. He's thrown just one interception over the last seven games while passing for 13 touchdowns. But over the last two weeks, specifically, Aaron Rodgers has been on fire. He's found the fountain of youth alongside his former teammate, Davante Adams, and their chemistry is currently blazing. They've connected on 18-of-23 attempts over the last two games for 307 yards and three touchdowns. It's the first time in Adams' career he's ever had 300 yards and three touchdowns over a two-game stretch. The 41-year-old quarterback and soon-to-be 32-year-old receiver are playing unconscious football right now, connecting on anything you can imagine. Adams is making contested catches and plays after the catch. Rodgers is dropping balls on a dime at every level of the field. The ball is sticking to Adams' hand like they're glue traps. It might be short-lived, and it's absolutely too little too late in the scope of the Jets' season. But Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams are playing loose right now, and they both deserve to move up a few tiers in the weekly start/sit discussion.
RB Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns
In the wake of Nick Chubb's season-ending foot injury, Jerome Ford is the next man up in Cleveland. He'll likely split touches with D'Onta Foreman and Pierre Strong Jr., but Ford is the one who possesses the highest weekly upside. He got off to an efficient start this season, averaging 5.3 yards per attempt over his first six games. But while he was sidelined with a midseason injury, Chubb returned. When Ford came back from his two-game absence, Chubb was up to speed, Ford's role was very limited, and his efficiency was nowhere near what it was early in the year. But over the last few weeks, we've seen his usage tick up and his efficiency improve. Over the last three games, he's averaging 8.7 carries and 2.3 targets per game, managing 5.9 yards per carry and 8.6 yards per target. He showcased his big-play abilities on a 62-yard scamper this week. As he turned up from a lateral stretch play, three Chiefs' defenders appeared to have an angle on him. In the blink of an eye, Ford was upfield with every defender tailing him. His 4.46 40-yard time was evident as he walked into the end zone untouched. Early in the year, the offense was sputtering with Deshaun Watson. But between the turnovers, Jameis Winston has this Browns offense moving down the field. The threat of a legitimate passing attack should open up more opportunities for Ford to rip off chunk plays.
RB Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans
Despite logging a limited practice on Friday, Tony Pollard was far from healthy in Week 15's match. And despite gritting it out, the team opted to showcase Tyjae Spears a bit more than they had earlier in the year. That change in usage could have been due to gamescript, as the Titans spent most of the game trailing, and Spears' workload mainly came in the receiving game. But he pulled in six-of-seven targets for 87 yards and a touchdown, in addition to five yards and a score on the ground. There were high hopes for Spears early in the offseason when it was reported that Derrick Henry would leave Tennessee. But Pollard signed in free agency and squashed that. Pollard's stellar play and injuries to Spears made it challenging for the latter to find his footing. But Spears could continue seeing extra work as the Titans' season winds down, and Pollard rests his injuries. Spears slid to Round 3 in the 2023 Draft due to injury concerns, but his talent has never been questioned. And multiple times throughout his NFL career, he's shown his ability to carve up defenses in the open field. The Titans face the Colts, Jaguars, and Texans to close the season. Spears has the skill and speed to put up big numbers if they lean on him a bit heavier in upcoming games.
Three Down
RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens
"Never bet against the Big Dog. He only gets better as the season goes on." I can hear my conscience telling me not to write this segment. But the trends are impossible to ignore. Through Week 7, Henry was off to a blistering pace, eyeing another 2,000-yard season. Adding in his work in the receiving game, Henry's 17-game scrimmage pace was 2,271 yards and 24 touchdowns through Week 7. But since then, he's cooled off. Over his last seven games, he's eclipsed 100 rushing yards just twice. His 17-game scrimmage pace is down to 1,613 yards and 12 touchdowns. Henry was PPR's RB1 through his first seven games and the per-game RB17 over his last seven. There aren't many fantasy football managers who have the luxury of benching Henry, and I'm not recommending that you should. But those alive in the playoffs with Henry should work extra hard to find edges at other positions, as Henry goes from a weekly Tier 1 running back to more of a boom/bust RB2.
RB Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
It's a scary time for people who rode veteran running backs into the playoffs, as a lot of fantasy's biggest scorers are cooling off at an inopportune time. Najee Harris is one of those getting cold. And depending on league depth, he may be droppable. By weighted opportunity share, the backfield was split 40/40/20 with just enough Cordarrelle Patterson to render everyone useless. Harris had a touch inside the ten-yard line (on which he lost a yard) and garnered just one target. And Warren out-snapped Harris in this game. It was a tough matchup against the Eagles, but the horizon isn't much brighter. With an upcoming schedule against the Ravens, Chiefs, and Bengals, shallow-league managers might think about dropping Harris, hoping their leaguemate will pick him up and play him. He's little more than a touchdown-or-bust RB3 over the rest of the season, and his weekly upside is minimal.
WR Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers
Just last season, Adam Thielen was PPR's WR3 through Week 6, trailing only Stefon Diggs and Tyreek Hill in overall fantasy points. On a struggling Panthers' offense, Thielen was the lone bright spot. But as the season progressed, he slowed down. And this year was marred with injuries. Thielen missed an extended period from Weeks 4 through 10. He returned in a limited role in Week 12 after their bye and was back to his typical usage and role in Week 13. Over the next two weeks, Thielen amassed 201 yards and a touchdown. He had another spectacular would-be touchdown ruled incomplete on a questionable decision. Most managers had picked him off waivers, and there was hope that Thielen would be a reliable WR2 or flex player over the next few weeks. But with Jalen Coker back in the lineup, Thielen's target total slipped. Xavier Legette picked up an injury in this matchup, and his absence could mean more work for Thielen. However, Thielen becomes much riskier going forward after seeing the potential downside in Week 15.
To hear my takeaways from every Week 15 game, including discussion on Aaron Rodgers, Jerome Ford, Tyjae Spears, Najee Harris, and more, check out the latest episode of The Footballguys Fantasy Football Show.
