We are quickly approaching the midway point of the fantasy football regular season. Bye weeks are back in Week 9, and difficult lineup decisions must be made.
Check out a new episode of The Footballguys Fantasy Football Show where Alfredo Brown and I discuss De'Von Achane, Cedric Tillman, Anthony Richardson, and much more!
Three Up
QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua played together in Week 8 for the first time all season. Matthew Stafford benefited most, setting season highs in touchdowns, completion percentage, EPA, and PFF grade. His 279 yards were the most since a Week 1 homecoming against the Lions. He had more touchdowns in Week 8 than in his first six games this season. Nacua and Kupp combined for 17 targets. Demarcus Robinson found the end zone twice. Everything was humming for the Rams, and their passing attack looked more like what we’ve seen over the last few years than at the start of this season. Stafford averaged a respectable 16.9 points per game last year. In 2021, his 20.4 points per game was good enough for top-12 production. There’s no guarantee that Stafford will maintain the elite production we saw in Week 8. But it was a signal of his potential. He should be picked up and stashed, as he could be a steady bye-week filler.
RB De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins
No one has benefited and lost more at the hands of Tua Tagovailoa this year than De'Von Achane. In the three games Achane has played with Tagovailoa, he’s scored 23.0, 29.5, and 26.7 PPR points. In the four games apart: 8.8, 5.9, 2.7, and 10.5. The 26.4 points per game Achane has averaged with Tagovailoa are by far the most in the league. The 7.0 he scored in Tagovailoa’s absence averages out to 47th among running backs. He’s logged a target share of at least 16% in the three games they’ve played together, out-pacing the team’s perceived WR2 Jaylen Waddle. The threat of a deep ball with Tagolvailoa opens up underneath routes for Achane to get the ball in space where he can rack up big plays. It was a tumultuous stretch from Weeks 3-7, but Achane is firmly back in the elite tier of running backs.
WR Cedric Tillman, Cleveland Browns
Amari Cooper is a Buffalo Bill. Deshaun Watson is out for the year. Kevin Stefanski gave up play-calling duties. The Cleveland Browns are currently surrounded by chaos. “Chaos is a ladder,” according to Game of Thrones’ Littlefinger. Cedric Tillman is climbing that ladder. Through his first 17 NFL games, Tillman averaged a paltry 2.9 targets, 1.4 receptions, and 13.7 scoreless yards. Cooper filled Tillman’s hopeful role in the offense. But with him gone, Tillman has become the team’s clear WR1 after a year and a half of patience. Over the last two weeks, he’s compiled 21 targets, 15 receptions, 180 yards, and two touchdowns. Tillman is a big-bodied receiver out of Tennessee who excels at contested catches. Being paired up with Jameis Winston in a match made in heaven. Winston has no qualms about throwing to a covered receiver, letting Tillman excel at what he does best. He has a tough stretch of matchups from Weeks 11-15 that will test his ceiling. But the skillsets between Tillman and future Hall-of-Famer Mike Evans are there, although the talent gap is vast. Think about Tillman as a Diet Evans as long as he’s got Winston under center.
Three Down
QB Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Few quarterbacks in NFL history have been as bad as Anthony Richardson. Over the last three decades, only six other quarterbacks have had as bad of a completion percentage on as much volume as Richardson through a season: Josh Freeman, Derek Anderson, Mike McMahon, Kent Graham, Akili Smith, and Cody Carlson. Not familiar with those names? Well, that’s because they were all out of the league shortly after being drafted. Whether you’re looking at the box scores, advanced analytics, or film, there are a lot of concerns with Richardson. Per NFL Pro, his completion percentage is over expectation and the league’s worst. His EPA per dropback is ahead of only Will Levis, Deshaun Watson, Jacoby Brissett, Andy Dalton, Gardner Minshew II, and Bo Nix. And through all of this, his fantasy production has disappeared. Since his Week 1 explosion, his 9.3 fantasy points per game ranks 37th among quarterbacks. A mid-game tapout in Week 8 has raised concern from his coaches.
WR DJ Moore, Chicago Bears
On the surface, DJ Moore’s WR25 and 12.4 PPR points per game seem reasonable, considering his draft cost. But a closer look raises some concern. He’s played in just five games with Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen. And as you can probably imagine, he’s averaging less with the full receiver arsenal than without. And he’s actually being out-targeted by Allen 32-31 in those five games (Odunze has 21). Moore had a blowup game in a Week 5 revenge game against the Panthers. He caught a season-high 105 yards and two touchdowns. In his six other games, though, he’s averaging just 39.3 yards per game. Moore’s weekly ceiling makes him nearly impossible to bench, but his production will likely remain unpredictable and sporadic. With a thin target distribution among the receivers (plus 30 for Cole Kmet), there isn’t enough pass volume to support all of these playmakers. There might still be an opportunity to cash in on the name value, but Moore will likely come up short of his preseason price tag.
WR Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings offense has been a shock this year. Sam Darnold’s 230 yards per game are the second-most of his career. Justin Jefferson's 19.4 fantasy points per game are what we’ve grown to expect from him. But Jordan Addison, the team’s WR2, hasn’t found his footing as we hoped. His 10.0 fantasy points per game rank 46th among wide receivers. He scored 22.9 points in Week 4 but has been held to single digits in every other affair. Addison is a young and talented first-round pick from last year’s Draft. The hope this preseason was that his talent would outweigh what we projected to be a bad situation. But now the situation is great, and he is struggling. He’s second on the team in receiving yards per game but is barely ahead of Jalen Nailor and Aaron Jones. His target jump has jumped dramatically from last year (12.5 to 17.4). If he and Darnold continue to struggle with the deep connection, it’s not crazy to think about moving Addison to your lineup’s bench.
