Tough decisions must be made as we get deeper into the season. Waiver wire pickups are becoming must-start options, and players you drafted to be studs are hitting the waiver wire. Isn't fantasy football fun?
Check out today's episode of The Footballguys Fantasy Football Show. Alfredo Brown and Joey Wright join me to discuss our rest-of-season quarterback rankings, including in-depth conversations about Bo Nix and Patrick Mahomes II.
Three Up
QB Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Many have written a punchline about Bo Nix, but he’s starting to get a bit more comfortable as an NFL quarterback. Things were looking bleak after his 60-yard outing against a stout Jets defense. But he’s since logged back-to-back games with over 200 yards and two touchdowns. He’s thrown just one pick over those games. And while the passing is great, his rushing upside makes him an alluring target in fantasy football matchups. He’s been a top-12 quarterback in three of his last four outings. He’s averaging a very respectable 30 rushing yards per game, ninth-most among all quarterbacks. He might not have an elite ceiling, but the pace of play and rushing upside from Nix could help struggling managers through injuries and bye.
RB Joe Mixon, Houston Texans
All it took for Joe Mixon to be "trending up" was getting healthy. But it’s time to start talking about Joe Mixon’s rest-of-season ranking with Houston. He was a draft-day slider due to his age, uncertainty with a new team, and waning efficiency. Mixon’s efficiency metrics had been on a steady decline, and it was easy to view him as a volume-based compiler who benefited from a good offense. But he’s resurging in Houston. His breakaway run rate is the highest it's been since 2018. He's averaging the 3rd-most yards after contact per attempt of his career and his best since 2021. That amounted to 26.8 and 27.2 PPR points in the two full games he’s played. Joe Mixon’s strength comes from his patience and vision, which pairs beautifully with Bobby Slowik’s wide-zone run scheme. Mixon still has the jets for big runs and has always displayed a knack for finding the end zone. With the Texans’ fast-paced approach and Mixon’s boom in efficiency, there’s an argument to be made that he’s a top-five running back going forward.
TE Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars
Much like Mixon, a healthy Evan Engram reminded us what he can do in fantasy football. His season was halted by a Week 1 hamstring injury that kept him sidelined until Week 6. But in his first fully healthy game, he pulled 10 targets, catching them all for 102 yards. He led the team in targets, working a familiar role as Trevor Lawrence’s safety blanket. He did this on just 68% of the offensive snaps. As he gets further from his injury, expect his role to grow. Engram was PPR’s TE2 last year and TE5 the year before. Even with the emergence of Brian Thomas Jr., Eggram is still pulling the elite target share that makes him valuable. In a desolate tight end landscape, Engram immediately falls into the top-five discussion again.
Three Down
QB Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes is undoubtedly the league’s best quarterback. But this isn’t a football article. It’s a fantasy football article. And Mahomes finds himself in that unfortunate “great football player who isn’t great for fantasy football” tier. The Chiefs are undefeated coming out of the Week 6 bye. They’re winning games. Mahomes is setting a career-high in completion percentage. But he’s throwing for the fewest yards per game of his career. His average target depth has been trending down for the last three years, bottoming out a career-low 4.7 yards this season. That’s less than half of what it was in his breakout 2018 campaign when he threw for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns. Teams are focused on taking away the big play, forcing Mahomes to take the underneath passes. The dink-and-dunk approach - coupled with a powerful run - bleeds the game clock. This has caused the Chiefs to fall to 12th in pace of play. In addition to the changing playstyle as a thrower, Mahomes is averaging his fewest rushing yards per game since 2019. On a per-game basis, Mahomes is averaging fewer points than Kirk Cousins, Bo Nix, Caleb Williams, and Sam Darnold. At this point, it’s not crazy to think that you drop Mahomes from your roster and let a leaguemate pick him up, as he’s not providing enough points to make your weekly lineup.
RB Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
Travis Etienne Jr. left Week 6’s game with an injury after logging just three carries for -1 yard. But he has been trending down since before the matchup, and it’s difficult to project his workload going forward. Tank Bigsby, after a disappointing rookie season, has developed into one of the league’s most efficient runners. D’Ernest Johnson saw a significant workload in Week 6 and looked decent with his opportunities. Etienne is a former first-round pick. That draft capital will typically insulate a running back’s workload. But in Etienne’s case, he was drafted when Urban Meyer ran the team. Now, Doug Pederson is in control, and he has a historical penchant for leaning on a committee approach. Etienne is currently the per-game RB36 in PPR, well below his top-ten price tag in preseason drafts. At this point, it’s very tough to envision a scenario where Etienne can live up to his lofty expectations without an injury to Bigsby. While some may see him trending down and hope to buy low, the reality is that Etienne could be a falling knife.
RB Trey Sermon, Indianapolis Colts
Everything seemed aligned for a nice mid-season stint from Trey Sermon. Jonathan Taylor picked up a multi-week ankle injury. Sermon was going to see a lot of volume on a good offense behind one of the league’s best run-blocking units. However, he was terrible with the opportunity. His 2.5 yards per attempt are the lowest in the league among running backs with at least 25 attempts. He’s averaging -0.5 rushing yards over expectation per attempt, and his accumulative rushing EPA of -12.1 is among the league’s lowest. Tyer Goodson carved out a much larger role in Week 6 and was much more efficient than Sermon. Fantasy managers may be enticed by the Week 7 matchup against the Miami Dolphins. But with the looking return of Anthony Richardson, Sermon is droppable in most formats.
