The trick to staying ahead of the curve is looking at usage, not production. We talk about usage a lot on the Footballguys Fantasy Football Show. And in today's episode, we discuss rest-of-season tight end rankings, spending extra time talking about Mark Andrews and Tucker Kraft.
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Three Up
WR Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
The first few weeks of the season were objectively disappointing for Brandon Aiyuk. Through Week 3, he was PPR's per-game WR60, averaging just 7.6 points per game alongside guys like KaVontae Turpin and Calvin Austin III. The usage had been odd for Aiyuk, pulling less than seven targets per game. He had failed to record more than 50 yards or find the end zone in a single outing. But the weirdest development was his seemingly drastic change in usage. Aiyuk's at his best when he's running deep crossing routes that allow him to catch the ball in space with room to create yards after the catch. He was instead asked to play tighter to the line of scrimmage while Jauan Jennings got the valuable downfield action. But after back-to-back losses to the Vikings and Rams, Aiyuk's usage returned to what made him so valuable last year. His average target depth jumped to 18.0 yards downfield (8.4 and 9.9 in Weeks 2 and 3). The production wasn't there, as Aiyuk recorded just two catches for 48 yards. But it tipped the 49ers' hand for Aiyuk's expected usage, and we saw that manifest in Week 5. Aiyuk set season highs in targets, receptions, and yards. He did that while maintaining his downfield routes and averaging nearly seven yards after the catch per reception. There are undoubtedly a lot of mouths to feed in this 49ers' offense. But Aiyuk's rare ability to pull targets deep downfield while making plays after the catch set him up for a sky-high weekly ceiling.
RB Blake Corum, Los Angeles Rams
Blake Corum's addition to the "Trending Up" section of this article is not any knock on Kyren Williams. Williams has developed into a hard-nosed runner and is the engine that powers this offense. However, he's also had a history of injuries that's tough to ignore. And Sean McVay has proven his ability to provide almost any running back with a role that is valuable in fantasy football. Blake Corum was a Day 2 pick by the Rams. And looking at his measurables, athleticism, college production, and draft capital, he was a very good incoming prospect. Prospect profiles alone would lead you to believe that Corum is a better back than Williams. Of course, Williams has earned his role as the Rams' RB1 at this point. But early in the season, expectations that Corum would carve out a role were quickly squashed. He was used almost exclusively on special teams, and Ronnie Rivers would occasionally spell Williams on offense. However, Week 5 wasn't the first time we've seen Corum get some in-game action. He saw eight carries late in a Week 2 blowout against the Cardinals. But the timing of his touches and the erasure of Rivers from the Week 5 game plan are tough to ignore. Corum saw five carries and a target on Sunday, with some of those valuable touches coming near the goal line. It's too early to think about Corum as someone who could have any stand-alone value. But he's quickly climbed the depth chart to be the team's RB2, putting him just one injury away from a potential top-five role in fantasy football, Sean McVay's bellcow.
TE Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers
The cat is officially out of the bag following Tucker Kraft's two-touchdown performance in Week 5. Despite averaging just 4.0 PPR points per game in his two starts with Malik Willis, Kraft is the TE3 on the season. That comes largely in part to a ludicrous 15.9 points per game with Jordan Love. When removing the Willis starts from Kraft's sample, only George Kittle's 16.0 PPR points per game tops Kraft's output. Last year, the Packers drafted two tight ends. Luke Musgrave appeared to have the edge over Kraft, but Musgrave picked up an early-season injury last year and those roles flipped. Kraft is a full-time player in this exciting Packers offense. His 124 routes are the 13th-most among all tight ends this year, and his utilization puts him in the slot and out wide in addition to his in-line role. It only took a quarter of the season for Kraft to evolve from being a trendy sleeper to a must-start option.
Three Down
QB Andy Dalton, Carolina Panthers
Not many people expected the Panthers to make a quarterback change after just two weeks. But they did, and Andy Dalton got the starting nod in Week 3. He immediately looked amazing in Dave Canales' quarterback-friendly system. He gashed the Raiders for 319 yards and three touchdowns in a decisive win. Week 4's game against the Bengals wasn't quite as inspiring. He threw for 220 yards and two touchdowns and his first interception of the year. They lost. And against one of the league's best defenses in Week 5, the Bears stymied Dalton for 136 scoreless yards, three sacks, two fumbles, and an interception. Of course, matchups must be considered. The Raiders, Bengals, and Bears are progressively tougher defenses to compete against. But Dalton has seen his passing yards, touchdowns, yards per attempt, QB rating, completion percentage over expectation, EPA, and completed air yards dip in each of his three starts. At the same time, he's increased his number of turnovers. There was hope that Canales could keep Dalton afloat like his system had had Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield in years past. And while the results have been objectively better than they were with Young, is it enough to justify keeping Young benched? The Panthers are in a peculiar situation where Young probably still isn't ready, and Dalton isn't injecting the hope into the team they had anticipated. There's no guarantee that Dalton will hold onto the job or produce again as he did in Week 3. There's still hope for Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette, Chuba Hubbard, and Jonathan Brooks. They are all talented players. But the gleam of Dalton's first start is beginning to dull.
WR Tank Dell, Houston Texans
Fewer rookies showed as much promise as Tank Dell did last year. Injuries plagued his season, but for the brief stretch we saw as a full-time player, he posted elite fantasy production. From Weeks 9-12, no wide receiver scored more fantasy points than Dell. Unfortunately, a broken fibula in Week 13 ended his season. During the offseason, in April, he was shot in the back of the leg. He returned to training camp and received first-team reps alongside Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. There was hope that Dell could leave his injuries behind him and return to elite form in Year 2. But the results haven't been there through the first few weeks of the 2024 season. Over the first two games, Dell was used primarily downfield, a role that provided immense success last year. Dell and CJ Stroud repeatedly failed to connect. A blitz-heavy scheme in Week 3 didn't allow for downfield shots, and Dell ran mostly short routes. He missed Week 4 with a rib injury. He came back in Week 5 to a role that looked more like his low-value Week 3 role than what we'd like to see. His average target depth has dropped in every game this season: 15.0 yards in Week 1, 10.5 in Week 2, 8.3 in Week 3, and 5.0 in Week 5. Despite the dropping target depth, his usage is also dipping. His seven targets in Week 1 were his most of the season, and he's averaged just 4.7 per game since. What is most concerning, though, is that the opportunity was there in Week 5, and Dell was still an afterthought. Nico Collins left the game with a hamstring injury after just his ninth snap. Dell was second on the team in routes run behind only Stefon Diggs but drew just four targets. Zavier Hutchison outsnapped him. Dell showed enough as a rookie that he makes for a good player to target in dynasty and keeper leagues. But with the increased target competition and possible lingering effects from his offseason injuries, his 2024 outlook could be bleak.
TE Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
Much like Tank Dell, Mark Andrews has had a rough year. A broken fibula also ended his 2023 season. And in August, a quietly-reported car accident caused Andrews to miss 16 days of practice leading up to the season's kickoff. Although head coach John Harbaugh played it off as "a minor thing," the extended absence tells us it probably wasn't so minor. During the heart of the NFL preseason, this car crash barely caused his fantasy football ADP dip. Drafters continued targeting Andrews with confidence as an elite tight end. But he clearly isn't himself this season. His snap counts have ebbed and flowed weekly, from 74% to 63% to 33% to 46% to 55%. He is coming off his best game of the 2024 season: five targets, four receptions, and 55 yards in Week 5 against the Bengals. But that was in a matchup where Lamar Jackson attempted 42 passes. Fellow tight ends Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar combined for 77 yards and three touchdowns. His target share of 9.2% is 26th among tight ends on the year. Hopefully, this lack of production is due to the offseason recovery and accident and not the start of a trend. But until we can see Andrews become a productive and full-time player again, he's droppable in fantasy leagues.