Everything looks so clear in hindsight. We wonder why everyone didn't tail our good calls. And we start to realize where we went wrong on our bad calls. But with each passing week in season, we can start to identify trends to get ahead of the curve. Skate to where the puck will be, if you will.
Three Up
QB Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Juxtaposed aside Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams hasn't looked great to start his career. However, Williams has displayed an upward trajectory in his four starts, a promising sign for his continued development. He took his lumps in Weeks 1 and 2. And then a pass-heavy onslaught in Week 3 looked good in the box score. Williams racked up 363 passing yards and two touchdowns, generating a respectable 19.3 fantasy points. Week 4's gameplan was a bit more conservative. The Bears kept the ball on the ground, and Williams' 11.5 fantasy points were nothing to get excited about. But Williams played his best game as a pro. And that's something we've been able to say about Williams every week since the start of the season. In his first four matchups, he's improved his completion percentage and thrown for more adjusted net yards per attempt. He's seen his PFF grades rise in each matchup. After failing to score a touchdown in his first two games, he's scored three in the last two. He logged his second consecutive game with a positive completion percentage over expectation. And Week 4's outing was his first with a positive EPA. The arrow is pointing up for Williams, who seems to learn quickly from his mistakes. It'll take a dramatic change for him to become more than a weekly steamer in fantasy. But he's playing well enough that we shouldn't have concerns about putting the ancillary pieces of Chicago's offense in our fantasy lineups.
WR Dontayvion Wicks, Green Bay Packers
Last year, Dontayvion Wicks' posted elite efficiency metrics as a rookie. This made him a tantalizing sleeper in 2024 drafts. He was 11th in yards per target and 24th in yards per route run. He averaged up a whopping 2.06 fantasy points per target, 18th most among all wide receivers. The issue was that he'd struggle to find significant playing time in a wide receiver room with Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Jayden Reed. And through the first few weeks, Wicks was held between 46-51% of the team's offensive snaps. But Watson exited Week 4's game early with what was deemed a high ankle sprain, and Wicks immediately took over as the team's WR1. He pulled 13 targets. He scored two touchdowns. The craziest thing, though, is that he left a ton of meat on the bone. There were multiple passing plays where he was wide open, streaking down the field, unable to pull a target from Jordan Love. He drew a deep end-zone look that was short-armed and ended up incomplete. If Week 4's usage is a sign of things to come, Wicks will be very valuable while Watson is out. It may just be for a few weeks, but after seeing what Wicks is capable of, he falls into the rare “must-roster wide receiver handcuff” tier.
WR Jordan Whittington, Los Angeles Rams
Far from a well-known name, Jordan Whittington could quickly find himself in the weekly streamer discussion at an injury-riddled wide receiver position. Whittington is a sixth-round rookie who drew some preseason buzz. But he hardly saw the field early this year, seeing just 3%, 50%, and 38% of the team's snaps through the first three weeks. But in the wake of injuries to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, he's being pushed into a more significant role. In Week 4, Whittington was on the field for 97% of the team's offensive snaps, the highest rate among all Rams' pass catchers. He led the team with 31 routes run and eight targets. He operated as the team's primary pass catcher, ahead of Tutu Atwell, Demarcus Robinson, and Colby Parkinson. We've seen Matthew Stafford provide elite volume to wide receivers over the years: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Kenny Golladay, Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, and more. Whittington is more than just a guy gobbling up volume, too. He's a quick and sure-handed receiver who can make plays after the catch, something we've seen Sean McVay prefer. Whittington's stint as Stafford's WR1 could be short-lived. But as the recent team leader in snaps, routes, targets, and receptions, there's enough volume to consider plugging Whittington into your Week 5 lineups.
Three Down
QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
There have been dropped passes. The offensive line hasn't been great. But expectations for Trevor Lawrence after signing a massive extension were high this year. And he's simply not living up to them. His adjusted completion percentage is third-worst in the league, behind only Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson. His 6.0 yards per attempt comes in as the sixth-lowest. And from a fantasy perspective, his 12.6 fantasy points per game ranks 26th among quarterbacks. In addition to Lawrence's struggles, the breakout of Brian Thomas Jr. has pushed Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis near unstartable territory. Lawrence is averaging the fewest yards per game of his career. His touchdown rate is the lowest it's been since his rookie season. His 38.1% success rate is not only the lowest of his career, but the sixth-worst in the league. Rather than boring you with more depressing stats, rest assured that Lawrence has been playing horrendous football. He is droppable in all fantasy leagues, and expectations for everyone besides Brian Thomas Jr. should be tempered.
WR Alec Pierce, Indianapolis Colts
Through the first two weeks of the season, Alec Pierce was fantasy football's WR6. He scores two touchdowns, including a 60-yard bomb in Week 1. Over the last two weeks, however, he is fantasy's WR77. He's pulled just four targets, mostly due to the return of Josh Downs. Even Joe Flacco couldn't unlock Pierce again. His snaps are going down. Anthony Richardson hardly throws enough to support Michael Pittman Jr, let alone the team's tertiary pass option. You may have splashed some FAAB on Pierce, but you can safely cut bait at this point.
RB Carson Steele, Kansas City Chiefs
This Kansas City backfield will likely be a fluid situation going forward, but Carson Steele is the one trending down at the moment. Kareem Hunt was elevated from the practice squad for this matchup and immediately took over as the team's RB1. He handled 65% of the backfield touches, while Steele was relegated to just two carries and one reception. Steele ceded goal-line work to Samaje Perine. Hunt's usage is only expected to go up from here. Clyde Edward-Helaire is due to be activated from Injured Reserve. Carson Steele was a fun story. He's an undrafted rookie with lovely blond hair. There's something about his story that involves an alligator. I don't really know. But it's safe to say that any expectations about him taking over the Chiefs' backfield can probably be thrown out the window.
For more talk about Carson Steele, Kareem Hunt, and the Chiefs' backfield, check out the latest episode of The Football Fantasy Football Show with Dave Kluge, Alfredo Brown, and Jagger May.
