Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, shame on both of us. We're at the point in the 2024 season where we must realize that some of our preseason hopes and dreams are just that. There's a lot of season left to play, but the picture gets clearer every week.
Three Up
WR Rashee Rice, Kansas City
Rashee Rice’s inclusion on this list shouldn’t be shocking. He’s currently the WR2 in PPR scoring. He plays on a great offense with the league’s best quarterback. But it’s probably time for us to discuss Rice as one of the league’s premier fantasy receivers. He got off to a slow start last year as a rookie. Through Week 11, he was a part-time player and averaged 4.6 targets per game. His usage while on the field was elite, but his inability to garner a meaningful snap share made his fantasy production obsolete. From Week 12 onward, Rice rarely left the field, and his usage maintained the same per-route usage that piqued our interest. Since Week 12 (including playoffs), Rice is averaging 9.4 targets and 19.74 PPR points per game. That would rank inside the top-eight fantasy receivers in every season in NFL history. With Travis Kelce’s age showing and Isiah Pacheco and Hollywood Brown likely out for most of the season, the offense will continue to flow through Rice. His slants and screens are used as an extension of the run game. But a blossoming route tree has allowed him to run go routes and posts, raising his weekly ceiling. Looking at Rice’s body of work since the midway point of last season, there’s almost no reason to keep him out of the elite tier of fantasy wide receivers.
WR Malik Nabers, NY Giants
Marvin Harrison Jr. was touted as this class’s best receiver, but Malik Nabers quickly put the label up for debate. He joins Anquan Boldin and Puka Nacua as the third player in NFL history to record 25 targets and 250 receiving yards in their first three NFL games. Nabers is pulling a ludicrous 37.8% target share, which is by far the highest in the NFL. He’s displayed the versatile skillsets you want to see from an alpha receiver: downfield routes, contested catches, sideline awareness, after-the-catch abilities, and more. His presence has breathed life into Daniel Jones. It’s opened up underneath routes for Wan’Dale Robinson. It’s allowed the Giants to run the ball more effectively. A brutal Week 1 loss to the Vikings suddenly makes a bit more sense, as the Giants have looked more formidable in their last two contests. But all of this works because of Nabers. He is making a quick name for himself as one of the league’s best playmakers. Nabers is a must-start option going forward, and a strong argument can be made for him to be inside the position's top ten going forward.
The Panthers Offense
After Week 1, The Carolina Panthers found themselves in this column's “Three Down” section. After optimism that Dave Canales could resuscitate Bryce Young, it became painfully apparent that Young wasn’t ready. Two weeks of horrendous play from Young was all Canales had to see before anointing Andy Dalton their Week 2 starter. Almost immediately, Canales’ offensive vision was apparent. Dalton threw for 319 yards and three touchdowns. He fit throws into every level of the field. Adam Thielen caught a touchdown before leaving with an injury. Diontae Johnson and Chuba Hubbard both had career days. The Panthers may come down to earth. But it’s good to know that Diontae Johnson and Chuba Hubbard belong in our lineups again. There’s also newfound hope for anyone rostering Jonathon Brooks or Xavier Legette.
Three Down
QB Deshaun Watson, Cleveland
The Cleveland Browns have painted themselves into a corner with Deshaun Watson’s contract. It would cost them more money to cut him than keep him around as a backup. And that might be the pill the staff is forced to swallow. The Browns are currently 1-2, but league-average quarterback play could easily have them undefeated. Watson’s passing EPA is currently third-worst among all quarterbacks, behind just Caleb Williams and Will Levis. His completion percentage, per-game yardage, touchdown rate, QBR, and success rate are all the lowest of his career. He’s yet to throw for over 200 yards in a single game. The entire offense is hurting because of Watson’s struggles. He still has some of the rushing appeal we want in fantasy, but his shortcoming as a passer makes every Browns player a risky fantasy asset.
WR Tank Dell, Houston
Weeks 1 and 2 showed a lot of meat left on the bone for Tank Dell. CJ Stroud targeted Dell often in both games deep downfield, but the duo failed to connect. A Week 3 matchup against the blitz-heavy Vikings forced a change in Dell’s usage. The Texans worked on short throws, getting the ball quickly out of Stroud’s hands. This materialized into just four targets for Dell and none deeper than seven yards downfield. We can contextualize Dell’s slow start all we want. But at the end of the day, he has just 17 targets to Collins’ and Diggs’ 28 and 24. He’s the WR60 in fantasy football. He is the clear third option in a passing game that still works to get the ball to Dalton Schultz. A better run game has allowed them to slow the clock down. Dell is a talented player, but the opportunities may not be there this year. This Texans’ wide receiver room was ambiguous in the offseason, and we’re starting to get more clarity each week. Tank Dell, unfortunately, appears to be behind Collins and Diggs in the pecking order, and would likely need an injury to one to be a consistent option in fantasy.
The Dolphins Offense
Much ado has been made about how Tua Tagovailoa is little more than a game manager in this explosive Miami offense. There was hope that another quarterback could keep the ship afloat in his absence. Skylar Thompson got the starting nod in Week 3 and looked awful. A mid-game injury to him thrust Tim Boyle into the game, who also looked horrible. In the wake of Tagovailoa’s injury, Tyreek Hill looked mortal, catching just three balls for 40 scoreless yards. Jaylen Waddle also had four receptions but just 26 yards. De’Von Achane was in his typical workhorse role but turned his 16 opportunities into just 58 scrimmage yards. The offense failed to record a touchdown. Going forward, Hill is still a must-start option because of his game-breaking speed, but he goes from an elite top-three receiver to a boom-or-bust WR2. Waddle was a high-end WR2 with aspirations of cracking into the WR1 tier this year, but this pushes him deep into WR3 or flex territory. Achane, like Hill, is still a weekly must-start, but expect plenty of dud weeks. There aren’t many quarterback options for Miami to bring in off the streets. Either Tagovailoa returns after his stint on IR, or Hill, Waddle, and Achane plummet down the rest-of-season rankings.
For more in-depth discussion on Rashee Rice, Malik Nabers, Tank Dell, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle, check out the latest episode of The Footballguys Fantasy Football Show with Dave Kluge, Alfredo Brown, and Victoria Geary.