Week 1 is about overreactions. Week 2 is about balancing out. However, two weeks is enough time to start noticing trends, so we should adjust our rest-of-season rankings.
Three Up
QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay
Raise your hand if you expected Baker Mayfield to be the top-scoring fantasy quarterback through Week 2! Now put your hand down, liars. While Mayfield probably won't average 24.7 fantasy points per game over the course of the entire season, it's hard to ignore the production he's had since signing with the Buccaneers last year. Since the start of last season, only Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Dak Prescott have scored more fantasy points than Mayfield. He is fourth in the league in EPA per dropback. While there have undoubtedly been other quarterback surprises to start this season (Derek Carr and Sam Darnold, most notably), Mayfield's is best translating to fantasy production. Mike Evans is still playing at an elite level. Chris Godwin is seeing a resurgence with his usage in the slot. And Mayfield, still just 29 years old, is averaging 27.5 rushing yards per game. That's well above his season-long career best of 10.3 yards per game. While some regression might hit in the rushing department, Mayfield has shown that he's more than capable of leading a high-powered passing attack. He moves up from being a high-end QB2 to being a locked-in top-10 option until he gives us a reason not to rank him there.
RB Ty Chandler, Minnesota
Last year, Ty Chandler took some time to carve out a role for himself in a committee with Alexander Mattison. He didn't see double-digit touches in a game until Week 10. This year, however, he's much more involved early in the year, a promising sign for his season-long outlook. Through two weeks, he's averaging 10.5 touches per game. Aaron Jones has amassed 15 touches per game. They're both averaging precisely 5.9 yards per touch. They both rank inside the top 10 in rushing yards over expectation per attempt, and each boasts a rushing EPA above +1. Drafters this offseason had a clear preference towards Jones. But Chandler is getting a similar workload and putting up equally impressive efficiency metrics. He's starting to provide some weekly flex appeal and has elite contingent upside in a better-than-expected Vikings offense.
WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona
Oh, how quickly one week can change expectations. Maserati Marv showed up just a week after being jokingly dubbed Mazda Marv. In his NFL debut, Marvin Harrison Jr. was held to just one reception for four scoreless yards. In Week 2, he led the wide receiver corps in targets, hauling in four receptions for 130 yards and two touchdowns. He had another near-touchdown. According to PFF, only Chris Olave had a better Week 2 receiving grade. But what was arguably the best thing about Harrison's Sunday was his post-game press conference. When asked about his breakout game, he replied, “Not going to lie to you, I think I saw Kyler [Murray]'s stat line. Had four incompletions. All were to me. Not very happy about that.” A sign of a true professional is someone always looking to improve, even after a great performance. Harrison showed just that and should continue to operate as the team's clear WR1 going forward.
Three Down
RB D'Andre Swift, Chicago
It's not entirely his fault, but D'Andre Swift is trending down after Week 2. For starters, he's averaging just 2.0 yards per rushing attempt this season. Of his 48 rushing yards, 49 have come after contact. Yes, you read that right. He is getting clobbered in the backfield on nearly every attempt. Swift's game is at its best when he can get out in space and make defenders miss. He hasn't been afforded that luxury so far in Chicago. Behind-the-line-of-scrimmage scrambles have forced him to bounce almost all of his runs outside, stretching horizontally before running out of bounds for minimal gains. The Bears offensive line is awful. If Caleb Williams can take a step forward as a passer and put a new threat on defenses, it may open up the run game. But for now, it's tough to fit Swift into your starting lineup.
WR Michael Pittman Jr, Indianapolis
The targets have been there for Michael Pittman Jr. He's averaging 7.5 per game through two weeks, 20th-most among all wide receivers. However, he's only caught seven for 52 yards. That ranks 79th in the league. Anthony Richardson is leading the league in target depth, averaging a whopping 14.0 yards per pass attempt. Michael Pittman has historically feasted on short, high-percentage throws across the middle of the field. This year, he's running, on average, the deepest routes of his career. His targets are coming 10.9 yards downfield, compared to 6.9 and 7.9 over the last two years. But that change in usage has caused a significant drop in catch rate. Deeper targets, lower catch rate, and nonexistent yards-after-the-catch ability have added up to a meager 0.96 yards per route run, 83rd among all wide receivers. Richardson appears to have a preference for Alec Pierce. And with Josh Downs set to return from injury soon, Pittman's floor and ceiling could drop even further.
"Elite" Tight Ends
This offseason, there appeared to be a clearcut tier of eight tight ends atop the draft board. You wanted one of these eight: Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid, George Kittle, Kyle Pitts, or Evan Engram. Through Week 2, Bowers, Kittle, McBride, Pitts, Andrews, LaPorta, and Pitts are the only ones from that list inside the top 20. Bowers, Kittle, Pitts, and McBride are the only ones inside the top 10. Isaiah Likely is the overall TE1. Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki join Bowers and Kittle to round out the top five. Zach Ertz, Foster Moreau, and Jonnu Smith are currently TE1s. Production across the position can level out as the season progresses. But those who paid up for a tight end this year are assuredly feeling like they're swimming upstream at the moment.
