We get a lot of data points in Week 1 that either corroborate or destroy our offseason expectations. While it's important not to overreact, it's equally important to take notice. Let's dive into 2024's first issue of "Three Up, Three Down."
Three Up
WR Jameson Williams, Detroit
We always knew the talent was there with Jameson Williams. Williams was selected 12th overall in the NFL draft despite coming off an ACL tear in his final year at Alabama. The recovery set up for a disappointing rookie season. Year 2 for Williams started with a four-game gambling suspension. And now, in 2024, Williams entered Week 1 healthy and active for the first time in his pro career. After having never exceeded 68% of his team’s offensive snaps in a single game, Williams played 85% on Sunday night. He had 134 scrimmage yards, nearly doubling his previous career best. The usage was encouraging. He saw nine targets and a carry. But the talent displayed is what is especially exciting. He logged a top speed of 21.03 miles per hour, the fifth-highest speed of any ball carrier in Week 1. We heard offseason rumbling about Williams being a bigger part of the Lions' offense. Still, many managers took a wait-and-see approach and benched Williams in Week 1. Well, we saw enough in Week 1 that those managers can confidently fire him up in their Week 2 lineups.
RB J.K. Dobbins, LA Chargers
Not all that different from Jameson Williams, the talent was never a question with J.K. Dobbins. The former second-rounder came on strong at the end of his rookie season. But an offseason knee injury ended his 2021 sophomore campaign before it ever started. 2022 was plagued by a myriad of injuries. He started the 2023 season with a bellcow role for the Ravens, looking every bit as good as he did in his rookie season. But a Week 1 Achilles tear promptly ended that season. Dobbins now enters Year 5, and his first outside of Baltimore. There were many concerns about how Dobbins would look after his brutal series of injuries. But if Week 1 is any indication of what to expect going forward, Dobbins could be a potential league-winner. The burst, power, and vision are still there. He had two long runs that he was unable to finish, but that long speed should return as he distances himself from his Achilles injury and conditions better. The touches were split with veteran Gus Edwards, but Dobbins looked like the superior running back. He was drafted in most leagues, and his managers have to feel great about what they saw. But if he’s still on the waiver wire for whatever reason, don’t hesitate to make a splash.
RB Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay
Bucky Irving was high atop draft boards this winter. But a horrific Combine weekend caused him to tumble all the way to Round 4 of the NFL Draft. Irving is a small back, just 5-9 and 192 pounds. His small stature and a 4.55-second 40-yard dash caused many teams to overlook him. His burst score ranked in just the 7th percentile. His Relative Athletic Score of 2.22 was historically bad and by far the worst of this year’s incoming class. But those poor testing metrics didn’t matter on Sunday. Irving handled nine rushing attempts for 62 yards and hauled in both of his targets for another 14 yards. White had the edge in snaps, carries, and targets, but Irving looked like the better running back. Last year, White’s efficiency profile was abysmal. He was among the league’s worst in rushing yards over expectation and EPA. And that trend continued into 2024. While it’s probably too early to sound that panic alarm for White, Irving becomes a must-add player if he’s available. He could fall into that rare tier of backup running backs with some stand-alone value and contingent upside.
Three Down
WR Chris Olave, New Orleans
The biggest offseason concerns we had about Chris Olave typically had more to do with his quarterback than they had to do with him. Well, Derek Carr completely 82.6% of his pass attempts for 200 yards and three touchdowns. The Saints scored 47 points, stomping the Carolina Panthers. Unfortunately, Olave pulled just two of Carr’s 23 targets. He compiled just 11 scrimmage yards. Rashid Shaheed operated as the team’s WR1 with five targets, but Olave even fell behind Alvin Kamara and Foster Moreau in the Week 1 pecking order. Olave is a wildly talented player. But he has struggled to find a foothold in this New Orleans offense. With Klint Kubiak as the new offensive coordinator, there was hope that it would unlock Olave’s ceiling. But we just haven’t seen it at the NFL level yet. It’s just one week. There’s no reason to panic yet. But if someone is still interested in buying Olave for his preseason value, it would be hard to find a reason not to take the offer.
RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore
Derrick Henry has displayed a downtick in efficiency and usage over the last few years but there was hope that a move to Baltimore would boost his value. The thesis behind drafting Henry was the potential touchdown upside. And he found the end zone on Thursday night! But without a touchdown, Henry will have a dangerous weekly floor. Justice Hill outsnapped Henry 43-37. Ran ran 28 routes to Henry’s 14. And he pulled eight targets to Henry’s one. Henry was held almost exclusively in an early-down role. There was plenty of offseason chatter about how Hill would be involved in the offense. But Henry’s contract and pedigree caused most fantasy footballers to ignore it, staying steadfast in their belief that Henry would be the team’s RB1. It’s possible that Henry’s role as a more versatile running back grows. He’ll have positive gamescripts allowing him to rack up points late in games. But Henry is absolutely a slider as we head into Week 2.
Denver, Carolina, and the NY Giants
Sometimes, it’s best to avoid bad offenses. Courtland Sutton pulled 12 targets! He caught just four for 38 scoreless yards. The Panthers rushed the ball 20 times! They recorded just 2.9 yards per attempt. Daniel Jones attempted a whopping 42 pass attempts! He threw more touchdowns to the Vikings than he threw to the Giants. Nothing about these offenses was anywhere close to inspiring this weekend. There were arguments for Sutton, Diontae Johnson, and Malik Nabers that could be propped up by volume. But in these instances, the quality of the targets may not be enough to offset that projectable volume.
