Committee With A Lead

• Bigsby and Etienne's snap count was equal, though their opportunities dramatically differed. Bigsby handled the rush work, and Etienne took the passing downs. The primary question will be how many games allow the team to lean on a heavy run plan. The Jets, Las Vegas, and Tennessee give the team a neutral playoff schedule. All three teams also have offenses that can allow the Jaguars to stay in neutral game scripts. Bigsby is the back you want, and Etienne holds a higher PPR upside. 

• Kamara set a new career high with 938 rush yards. He is only 62 away from his first 1,000-yard campaign and the Saints first since Mark Ingram II in 2017. Kendre Miller is the most significant development. With Taysom Hill's season over, the Saints needed a complimentary piece, and Miller returned from IR just in time. Miller only played 18 snaps to Kamara's 49 but saw 11 opportunities on those snaps. Miller was the short-down opportunity leader and could see goal-line work, but the offense's ceiling lowers if Derek Carr misses time. The Saints' fantasy playoff opponents of Washington, Green Bay, and Las Vegas all sit in the middle of fantasy points allowed. 

• Everyone who started Guerendo is thrilled. Guerendo left the game with a foot injury, though he said he felt fine and the team was exercising caution. Guerendo is the top back here. The 49ers are close with the Rams and Miami, which are neural matchups, but they have a problematic Week 17 game against a Lions defense that has allowed the second-fewest points. 

True Committees

• The Browns have five games with both Ford and Chubb active. Ford has led in snaps, 194 to 143, though Chubb has led in opportunities, 71 to 43. A good portion of that is the Week 12 snow game against Pittsburgh when Chubb held a 21 to 5 edge. Week 14 lacked that emotion, and Ford led in touches 24 to 23 over the last two games. Both players are flex options and carry risk, as we have seen game scripts turn each into a Bellcow over the previous month. The Chiefs have been the best defense against running backs and loom in Week 15, but Cincinnati and Miami are a bit softer.

• Gibbs has 178 rush attempts and 42 targets. Montgomery is at 180 attempts and 34 targets. They both have 12 touchdowns. Montgomery handles short-yardage work, which deflates his rush average, and Gibbs has 247 more scrimmage yards at 1,328 to 1,081. Otherwise, they are the picture of a split backfield. The Lions have a favorable playoff schedule, with Buffalo, Chicago, and San Francisco all in the Top 10 of most fantasy points allowed.

• The Chargers were the Chiefs' latest victim. Since J.K. Dobbins' injury, the backs have disappeared from the passing game. Vidal edged slightly ahead of Edwards in the second half, though both backs are trying to grind out yards. Tampa Bay, Denver, and New England have a neutral playoff schedule, though neither back has shown themselves as high-volume yardage earners. 

• Allen and Davis were almost precisely equal regarding snap share and opportunity. Davis scored the touchdown, his second in two weeks. Giving both players opportunities in a lost season benefits the team long-term. They are both flex options. 

• Since Week 6, Harris has averaged 34 snaps and 20 opportunities to Warren's 30 snaps and 12.6 opportunities. Unsurprisingly, Warren has the edge in targets, with 28 to Harris'

• 20, though Harris has the highest target game at six in Week 13. Despite a somewhat equal opportunity split, Harris is the fantasy RB11 over this stretch, while Warren is RB32. Harris has a weekly Top 12 upside, while Warren is a flex consideration. Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Kansas City give the Steelers the most challenging playoff schedule for fantasy running backs. 

The Target Report

I view target trees as "clean" or "dirty." Clean trees distill targets to their top options and give standout fantasy performances. Dirty trees are, well, a mess and rely on unpredictable possibilities. The chart below splits these offenses into categories.

Offenses with Top 2 Options > 60% Target Share

• Jordan Love threw 39 passes in Week 9 against the Lions. That was an outlier. Removing that game, he has averaged 22 attempts over five games. This game is the Packers' plan to deal with Love's early season turnover struggles. Jayden Reed took a very disappointing zero off his two-touchdown game. Any receiving option relies on a touchdown or a big play like Watson's 59-yard reception.

• Thomas is up to 54 receptions, 851 yards, and six touchdowns, becoming the 39th rookie to compile that combination. His eight-for-86 game with Mac Jones is encouraging. 

• Nacua became the first player to catch 12+ passes with 160+ receiving yards and score a receiving and rushing touchdown. Removing a Week 9 game with an early ejection, he has averaged 8.17 receptions and 110.33 yards over his last six games for 19.58 fantasy points, standing as WR3 in points per game. Those numbers would put him at 107 receptions and 1,149 yards in only ten games. 

• Addison is WR3 over the last four games, with 349 yards coming in the previous three weeks. Jefferson broke a six-game scoreless streak; he had a three-game dip where he averaged 4.3 receptions and 52 yards but has bounced back with consecutive seven-reception games, topping 99 yards in both. 

Offenses with Top 2 Options > 50% and Top 3 > 70% Target Share

• The Falcons receiving trio got where we wanted, with Kirk Cousins throwing for 344 yards. But we are now up to four games without a touchdown pass. McCloud is quietly emerging, with 95 and 98 yards in the last two games. He is the Falcons' best after-the-catch threat and an answer to Cousins' inability to push the ball. Kyle Pitts had another poor game and can not hit fantasy lineups. Pitts and London operate in similar field areas and struggle to complement each other. Given Cousins' struggles to push the ball vertically, there is no space for both. 

• So, this is a trailing Buffalo game script. Cooper and Allen are still working to get on the same page, but 14 targets opens a new trajectory for Cooper's fantasy potential. He is worth inquiring about in leagues without a trade deadline. Shakir has fallen victim to quiet second halves with big leads but is on pace for an 87-980-4 season. 

• Don't look now, but the early 2023 Thielen-Bryce Young connection is back. Thielen was WR4 at 18.5 points per game from Weeks 2 to 8 in 2023. He is WR10 over the last two weeks. 

• Fun with numbers. Odunze as a rookie disappointment is a standard narrative. But only four Bears rookies have posted 45+ receptions, 585+ yards, and three touchdowns. Darnell Mooney, Mike Ditka, and Harlan Hill are the others. Mooney posted 61-631-4 in his rookie season. 

• The Raiders made a hard pivot to running base personnel of Meyers and Tre Tucker with the two tight ends of Bowers and Mayer. What took so long? D.J. Turner's season-ending injury is a factor, but Mayer delivered a standout day with the increased opportunities. Aidan O'Connell will miss the rest of the season, and Desmond Ridder's ability to support Bowers and Meyers will be a significant question. 

• The Dolphins have historically struggled late in the season, but time is short. Hill and Waddle combined for their best games of the season. In the seven games since Tua Tagovailoa returned from injury, Hill has been on a 100-1,154-10 season-long pace, and Waddle has been at 77-1,066-5. It's not the elite fantasy numbers we expected, but it's usable and a massive upgrade. 

• Speaking of an underwhelming AFC East offense, it's the Jets! Adams and Wilson combined for their best game. Given how the last month has gone, few would believe that Wilson is WR7 in total points on the season. Both players can post big fantasy games as Aaron Rodgers shifts to stat accumulation mode. 

• The Eagles' passing attack is what it is. The team wants to manage what Jalen Hurts sees week-to-week, keeping volume lower. Hurts averaged 33 attempts over the first four games and has been 21.44 since. Brown has been WR10 since Week 6, though far from the elite player who carried a first-round ADP this summer. 

Offenses with Top 1 Option > 25% and Top 3 < 70% Target Share

• Arizona also barely missed the cleanest category and the next tier, with Michael Wilson and Emari Demercado mixing in for some targets. McBride is now six receptions from tying Diontae Johnson's 86 catches without a touchdown. His 851 yards topped his previous high of 825, and his 80 receptions are one less than the 81 he posted in 2023. 

• Riding a Week 13 high of 235 yards, Jeudy is now third in the league at 944, just 28 away from a new career high. He has totaled 72% of those yards over the last six games. He is the fantasy WR3 over that span.

• This outcome is the Chiefs' passing game. The good news is that targets have distilled to this core group of four, as each has seen at least four targets in the last four games. The bad news is outside of Kelce; no one has shown an ability to reach fantasy relevance without a touchdown. Kelce can be the overall TE1 in any given week, but Hopkins, Worthy, and Gray are fringe flex considerations. 

• Now the Chargers need Palmer, Johnston, and Ladd McConkey to do it in the same game. Week 13's game plan targeted McConkey heavily with a 50% rate. Week 14 was Palmer's best game of 2024 and Johnston's best since Week 9. Between Weeks 8 and 12, Herbert was on a five-game stretch of 21.08 points per game, suitable for QB5. In his other eight games, he is at QB34, with an average of 11.6.

• Samuel's involvement in the offense feels nominal; Jennings and Kittle are the best options. Jennings is averaging 6.4 receptions and 74 yards over his previous five games, with a blizzard Week 13 included, a 17-game pace of 109-1,258. 

• McMillan was a buzzy rookie name and a hopeful second-half star after the Buccaneers lost Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in Week 7. That did not materialize; his best outcome was a 4-35 game. But there is still plenty of time, and he broke through in Week 14. He is the team's WR2, playing 110 snaps to Shepard's 65 over the last two games. McMillan can still be a contributor who swings leagues in the fantasy playoffs. 

• Ridley posted his second-most targets and receptions on the season in a "revenge" game against the Jaguars. Since catching zero passes and hinting at his unhappiness in the media in Week 6, he has averaged 74.62 yards per game and is on pace to clear the 1,000-yard mark.

Offenses Under All Thresholds

• Prognostication is a funny game. I pointed out where St. Brown was trending on the season a month ago and how touchdowns inflated his value. Of course, he immediately went out and posted a dominant 11 receptions, 161 yards, and two touchdown games. I was a fool, and social media had their fun. But since that game? Zero touchdowns, St. Brown has remained on his season-long trend (it was 6-60 in that article, now three weeks at 5.33 for 59.33), and St. Brown is WR46 over the last three games. Those spike games are still very much in play; there is no decline or hidden injury here; this is just a team with more supporting weapons that no longer needs to play shootouts. LaPorta's disappointing sophomore season is running into the same issue, but he did not have touchdowns to cover during the period fantasy managers were most plugged in. 

• Derek Carr's season appears over. Following the game, he had a cast on his left hand. The Saints are playing hard for Darren Rizzi, who is channeling Antonio Pierce's 2023 interim coach run and has a 3-1 record. But injuries have taken out Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Taysom Hill, and Carr. While Johnson and Valdes-Scantling are stepping up as deep league options, putting Haener or Rattler back in at quarterback may be the final straw. 

• Nabers came in managing a groin injury. The Giants implemented a very controlled game plan for Drew Lock, whose 227 yards tied Jim Everett for the 22nd fewest yards with 49+ attempts. The Giants' passing attack has lacked explosive plays for weeks now, and with Nabers limited, grinding away startable weeks in PPR formats is the best we can hope. 

• George Pickens scratched, and the result was a modest effort spread across the board, with five players seeing between three and five targets. Pat Freiermuth had the best game, with 3-48-1. He has been TE8 over the last three weeks, averaging 4.33 catches and 58.33 yards with two touchdowns, a 17-game pace of 74-992-11. 

• Smith-Njigba has been WR4 since Week 8, topping 69 yards in his last six games. His pace over those six games works out to a 108-1,677 season. 

The Landmine Lineup

We often focus on "Spike Weeks" in fantasy football. Explosive 30+ point per game performances that win weeks almost single-handedly. Dud lineups that ruin your week are the opposite end of that spectrum. Every week, I will highlight the hypothetical Landmine Lineup. If you have started this lineup, message me, and I will feature your misfortune, and we will find a way to brighten your week!

• QB: Will Levis - 7.0 points
• RB: James Cook - 3.9 points
• RB: D'Andre Swift - 4.5 points
• WR: Jayden Reed- 0 points
• WR: Tyler Lockett - 0 points
• WR: Deebo Samuel Sr. - 4.5 points
• WR: Keenan Allen - 4.5 points 
• TE:  Cole Kmet - 0 points
• TE Kyle Pitts - 1.9 points

This week’s lineup posted 26.3 points. 

Levis was a popular DFS play, but the Titans did not score a touchdown, and he gained less than 200 yards. 

Cook played in the highest-scoring game of 2024, with 86 points between the Rams and Bills, but trailing most of the game caused the Bills to abandon the run game. 

Samuel was the odd man out for the 49ers (again), while the defense played its best game of the season, shutting down the Bears' offense and stifling Swift, Allen, and Kmet. The 49ers desperately needed this game, with the Cardinals and Seahawks matchup assuring at least a tie for the two teams on top of the division. 

Lockett was catchless for the first time since late in the 2019 season. He has seven career games without a reception, but only two have happened since 2017. 

Pitts has had fewer than two receptions in four of his last five games. He has not been a priority in the Falcons' offense. 

Jordan Addison, Justin Jefferson, Zach Charbonnet, Josh Allen, and Sam Darnold were the players who beat it.

If you started this lineup, send me a message at Bell@Footballguys.com!

Revenge! (Not sponsored by Immaculate Grid, but it could be!)

Week 14

• QB Kirk Cousins, Atlanta vs. Minnesota, Lost 42-21, 344 pass yards, 0 touchdowns, two interceptions.
• WR Calvin Ridley, Tennessee vs. Jacksonville, Lost 10-6, seven receptions, 59 yards.
• RB DeeJay Dallas, Arizona vs. Seattle, Lost 30-18, one tackle.
• WR Brandon Powell, Minnesota vs. Atlanta, Won 42-21, no stats.
• TE Chris Manhertz, NY Giants vs. New Orleans, Lost 14-11, no stats.
• RB Miles Sanders, Carolina vs. Philadelphia, Lost 22-16, on IR.

Week 15

• QB Desmond Ridder, Las Vegas vs. Atlanta
• WR Tyler Boyd, Tennessee vs. Cincinnati
• RB Kareem Hunt, Kansas City vs. Cleveland
• WR Kadarius Toney, Cleveland vs. Kansas City
• WR Jonathan Mingo, Dallas vs. Carolina
• RB Ty Johnson, Buffalo vs. Detroit
• QB Andy Dalton, Carolina vs. Dallas
• QB Kenny Pickett, Philadelphia vs. Pittsburgh
• QB Joe Flacco, Indianapolis vs. Denver
• TE Robert Tonyan Jr, Minnesota vs. Chicago

Blind Resume Answer

I lied. Thielen is not going to the playoffs. Jennings may not either. But most of these players were complete afterthoughts in fantasy drafts who have worked their way into key roles. Addison had an off-field incident that lowered his ADP, while McMillan was a trendy, deep, buzzy name. The rest of the list was slotted in as fourth receiving options at best. 2024 has been a strange year for receiving production, and deep names are being delivered weekly. 

Deep Players To Watch On Monday Night Football

RB Rico Dowdle, Dallas

In Week 11, Dowdle looked done. The Cowboys had a terrible performance on Monday Night against Houston. Dowdle was stuffed for 28 yards on ten attempts and dropped three of his five targets. 

But the last two weeks? 

Dowdle bounced back in a big way, with 198 rushing yards over the last two games, posing his first 100-yard day on Thanksgiving. Removing that poor performance against a challenging Houston defense, Dowdle has averaged 73 yards per game over the year's second half, pacing to 1,241 for an entire 17-game season. 

The Cowboys have popped up in rumors attached to Boise St.’s Ashton Jeanty. Dowdle is chipping away at that stance. He will get another chance against a porous Bengals defense. 

Follow @4whomjbelltolls 

And Bluesky too!

I want it on record that I did not mention the college football playoff committee one time. But yes, teams that lost to Vanderbilt and Kentucky can lose to Indiana and SMU.