“Have a plan. Follow the plan, and you’ll be surprised how successful you can be. Most people don’t have a plan. That’s why it’s easy to beat most folks.” – Paul “Bear” Bryant, football coach, University of Alabama’s Crimson Tide.

We have arrived at the prime of fantasy football draft season, a heady time when we are thinking about how the draft will unfold, who we are going to target, and how we are going to make our championship team come together in real-time, pitted against a group of live minds.

Preparation is important, but never to the point of rigidity. There will be unexpected picks ahead of you that cause a player you never considered to fall to your pick. You will see key players in your draft plan sniped a pick or two before you are on the clock.

You need to be prepared, but you also have to be flexible. The best way to do that is to understand the alternatives for filling each starting slot on your team.

When you make a pick, you are affecting the decision matrix for your later picks. Sometimes, the answer isn’t who you like better among your early targets when you are on the clock in the early rounds but who you like better later at the positions you are neglecting when you make a pick.

If you feel comfortable about later options, then it’s easy to kick a position down the road a few rounds. If you are staring at your last viable option to fill a starting spot, it’s probably better to avoid the pain of figuring out what to do later.

Know Your League

First, as always, know your scoring and lineups.

• If you start only two wide receivers and running backs without flex positions, then tight end and quarterback become more important.
• If you can start seven WRs/RBs, then quarterback and tight end are less important.
• Know which players/positions are helped and hurt by whether your league is non-PPR, 0.5 PPR, PPR, or tight end premium (1.5 PPR for tight ends).
• Know which quarterbacks are helped and hurt by bonuses for long scores or 300-yard games, and whether your league gives more than 4 points for a passing score or 1 point for each 25 passing yards.
• Look at the average points per game at each position sorted in descending order. Note which positions have the smallest and largest spans between #1 and the last starter based on league size times starting requirements to know where getting an elite option is most important (VBD drafting!).

You get the point. Know the landscape before you get dropped in to conquer it.

Know Your Guys

Next, create a list of players that are your guys.

Using ADP, you can have a reasonable expectation of who will be there in which rounds, and you can start to piece together a plan that will give your lineup balance and upside and create possibilities for improvement on your bench. You should also have clarity on which players you value so much less than the hive mind that you can just cross them off of your list.

Understand the if/then logic of your choices and how they ripple through the later rounds. Then clear your mind, get in the moment, and draft!

As always, fantasy football is a diversion, an escape where we get to call the shots. Do it your way and enjoy the peace of mind that comes with getting lost in a puzzle and forgetting the pressures of everyday life.

Draft Strategy: Cliff's Notes

Overall: There will be multiple right answers at every position, and the right answers will change as the season unfolds. Have clarity on which players you like at each position in each section of your draft so you can piece together a roster of players you want, no matter how your opponents draft.

Quarterback

The elite options at quarterback are not far enough ahead of the pack to justify taking one of the top two options.

The best value is in the QB7-11 range, but there are still ways to hang in at the position if you don’t take a top-12 option.

Running Back

There are worthy options at ADP from the #1 overall pick through the third round, but the best value is in the 6th-8th round range. The value is so good there that you might be able to get away with waiting that long to take your RB1 and RB2.

As always, your late-round picks should focus on speculative running backs.

Wide Receiver

You’ll probably want to take at least two wide receivers in your first four picks and three in your first five. The upside possibilities dwindle around the 6th/7th round, so make sure to fill out your core by then.

The late-round wide receivers don’t have as much potential to hit as the late-round running backs and tight ends.

Tight End

The top four are tightly packed and fall much farther than the top tight ends have gone in recent years. Consider taking TE3 or TE4 at ADP as your Plan A, as long as you think that player is going to finish higher than the top tight ends did in 2023, a down year at the position.

Options that could be the best value pick at the position abound, going as deep as TE10-TE12, including T.J. Hockenson, and there are a lot of promising late-round options.

Reserve two spots for tight ends in your roster build.

Kicker

Take one with your last pick that’s established in a good offense.

Team Defense

Take one with your next-to-last pick that has a good Week 1 matchup. 

Draft Strategy: Quarterback

Again, knowing your scoring system is key here. In leagues with distance touchdowns and 300+ yard game bonuses, or more than four points per pass touchdown, or efficiency scoring that takes points away for incompletions and awards points for completions, Patrick Mahomes II could be #1, C.J. Stroud and Dak Prescott could be top five, and Jared Goff and Brock Purdy could be top 10-12, allowing you to wait longer. In more typical leagues with four-point pass touchdowns and points per 25 passing yards, the quarterbacks with a running dimension remain king.

I get it, late round quarterback is attractive because you can get 15-20 points off of the waiver wire. That was a more compelling argument when the top quarterbacks were in the 24-25 points-per-game range. Enter quarterbacks like Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Anthony Richardson, who can score 30 points a game on average in typical scoring systems at their peaks, and the game has changed. A 10 points-per-game advantage is the largest that any player at any position will give you over replacement value except Christian McCaffrey, who was the runaway #1 overall pick in previous years and will still go #1 in a lot of leagues this year. The object of fantasy football is to score more points than your opponent, and it sure seems like getting an elite fantasy quarterback is the shortest line between A and B to achieve that result. Who is the best target if you want an elite fantasy quarterback but don’t want to pay the premium for Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts? Anthony Richardson or, a few rounds later, Jayden Daniels.

Richardson was on his way to a big fantasy season if the tiny sample size from last year is a valid indicator. Of course, his inability to stay healthy in the few games he did play could end up being the more valid piece of information from his first season. Daniels is going multiple rounds later and also has a high injury risk factor, but Justin Fields has shown us how low the bar is for a running quarterback to be a fantasy QB1.

Target: Anthony Richardson
Round: 5-6

Target: Jayden Daniels
Round: 8-9

If you’re more conservative or just prefer avoiding the unknown/injury-prone quarterbacks, Murray and Prescott are both quality picks at ADP. Prescott was the #2 overall quarterback behind Josh Allen after the Cowboys' bye-week adjustments. Murray will be two years clear of his ACL injury, and his offense should be improved with the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. He’ll also be much better prepared to run Drew Petzing’s offense, which was a pleasant surprise with Joshua Dobbs at the helm last year. 

Target: Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott
Round: 7-8

There’s indoor Jared Goff and there’s outdoor Jared Goff. In 2024, you will only have to use outdoor Jared Goff once in the first 15 weeks of the season. You read that correctly. Week 16 at Chicago is a bear, weather wise, but even his Week 17 date outdoors with the 49ers promises big fantasy points after a successful NFC Championship game performance last season.

Target: Jared Goff
Round: 10-11

What if I wait and miss out on Goff? 

It will be ok. 

Lots of quarterbacks outside the top 12-15 - Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Geno Smith - even Will Levis or Sam Darnold could flirt with low QB1 production, especially if you have two and can pick the better matchup each week. The depth at quarterback will also make most teams happy with their QB1, giving you less competition on the waiver wire. 

Do I need a QB2?

Only if you take Anthony Richardson or Jayden Daniels as your QB1, and maybe Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray. Those quarterbacks' injury risk profile means you need to plan for a rainy day. Still, you might get away with not carrying a QB2 simply because teams will start dropping their QB2 options as we get to the waiver wire gauntlet, so you just need them to stay healthy through midseason to get away with only rostering one quarterback at the end of your draft. The QB2 options don’t have compelling enough season-long upside to hold on your bench if you are satisfied with your QB1 choice. Last year showed us that surprise options like Joshua Dobbs and Jake Browning can emerge as viable bye/injury/emergency options, so there are probably more viable options to save your season if your QB1 goes down than you expect at first.

A note for Superflex/2QB players

The top 10-12 quarterbacks fly off of the board in Superflex/2QB leagues. You should probably take your QB1 in the first or second round. If you have an early draft slot, it is almost imperative to take a quarterback first because you will likely still find a top 10-12 RB/WR/TE available at your second pick, but the top 10-12 quarterbacks should be gone. Typically, in a Superflex/2QB draft, you can get RB/WR/TE a round or more later than their ADP in 1QB leagues. Alternatively, that makes taking an RB/WR/TE come with a penalty of taking them in the same round they usually go in if you take one in the first round. You can employ a strategy of waiting on your second quarterback and taking RB/WR/TE as long as you can until you feel forced to take your QB2 because the supply is drying up. Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Baker Mayfield, Deshaun Watson, and Geno Smith will be available after your top 50 or so RBs/WRs/TEs are gone, so you won’t be assessed as big an opportunity cost when you take them as you would if you take an early QB2. Going quarterback in two of your first 3-4 picks can still work out, but you have to be almost flawless on your early RB/WR/TE picks if you don’t take your QB1 early.

Draft Strategy: Running Back

Your RB1 and You

Option: Take your RB1 in the first round

If you draw #1, you can lock in Christian McCaffrey (assuming you’re not worried about his camp calf injury). In the early/mid-first (assuming PPR scoring), Breece Hall has a chance to become the RB1 overall if Aaron Rodgers stays healthy. He was an elite RB1 in PPR late last year without Rodgers and Hall should be even better in year two removed from an ACL injury. In the mid-first, Bijan Robinson should get a big boost from Kirk Cousins and a new offense, although Tyler Allgeier is not a mere backup and will lower Robinson’s weekly and season-long ceiling. In the late first, Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor are in excellent overall situations but will cede rushing scores to their quarterbacks. Jahmyr Gibbs is maybe the best offense in the league, but David Montgomery will probably have more carries and rushing touchdowns, and Gibbs already has an injure hamstring. You're probably better off taking him in the second now. If you take your running back in the first, you can ignore the position for at least the next 5-6 rounds unless you have high confidence in the back you are taking as your RB2.

Target: Christian McCaffrey
Pick: #1

Target: Breece Hall
Round: Early-Mid First

Target: Bijan Robinson
Round: Mid-Late First

Target: Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Jahmyr Gibbs
Round: Late First

Option: Take your RB1 in the second round

The second round is not rich with solid RB1 options. One of Barkley, Taylor, and Gibbs could make it to the early second to pair up with Garrett Wilson or Puka Nacua at wide receiver in the first. De’Von Achane could be the breakout back of the season if he stays healthy, he deserves a look in the mid-late second. The next backs on the board shouldn’t be taken until the third, with the possible exception of Derrick Henry in non-PPR or .5 PPR leagues. Kyren Williams and Isiah Pacheco could deliver second-round value, but they’ll be there in the third if you are drafting in the late second.

Target: Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor
Round: Early Second

Target: De’Von Achane
Round: Mid-Late Second

Option: Take your RB1 in the third round

The RB1 candidates available in the third are better than we’re used to seeing. Derrick Henry is in the best situation of his career and showed no signs of decline last year. He’s going later than last season despite running behind the worst offensive line in the league on a bad team in 2023. Kyren Williams was worth a first-round pick last year despite missing four games. The addition of Blake Corum will lower Williams' weekly ceiling but perhaps keep him healthier. Williams is still the clear lead back. Isiah Pacheco is going to be an everydown back and get a ton of touchdown opportunities in a revitalized Chiefs offense. If you want Travis Etienne, you’ll probably need to take him in the late third, although he doesn’t have as high a ceiling as the other third-round backs.

Target: Derrick Henry, Kyren Williams, Isiah Pacheco
Round: Third

Option: Go Upside Down/Do the Opposite/Zero RB

Much like last year, the running back “dead zone” extends into the 7th/8th round. Until recently, running backs that are likely to lead their team in touches but have warts like age, injury, quality of offense, and quality of competition would only fall as far as the 4th/5th and force teams antsy about their RB2 to take someone they weren’t in love with. These days, you can get proven commodities at running back cheaper than ever. Here are some of my favorites:

• James Conner, ARI - Was an RB1 down the stretch. The Cardinals offense will be improved, and Benson is not a threat to his bellcow role.
• Rhamondre Stevenson, NE - The Patriots paid him like a bell cow back before camp and should use him like one in their run-first offense.
• David Montgomery, DET - Should still be in line for double-digit rushing touchdowns and big games in some Lions wins.
• Raheem Mostert, MIA - Still the leader of the most productive backfield in the NFL - 2023 production dictates 3rd/4th round value, but age/injury worries are overweighted in ADP.
• Aaron Jones, MIN - Will share with Ty Chandler, but finished strong last year and should play a big role in the passing game.
• Nick Chubb, CLE - All signs point to a faster recovery than expected. Worth the risk at a depressed ADP.
• Jerome Ford, CLE - Looked like a back on the rise. If you don’t believe in Chubb, you must take Ford. Both could hit in any event.
• Zamir White, LV - He’ll be a solid RB2 any time the Raiders are competitive.
• Brian Robinson Jr, WAS - Was a solid RB2 last year in a lesser offense. Ekeler shouldn’t take much more than Antonio Gibson last year.
• Chase Brown/Zack Moss, CIN - Lots of camp buzz around Brown, but it has died down and he will be in a committee with Moss. Brown has a higher ceiling as the younger ascendent back. If Moss's ADP falls below Brown's, he's viable as the short yardage/passing down back.

You can usually get two of these backs in the 7th and 8th. Robinson/Brown are often there in the 9th, and Chubb/Ford are there in the 10th or later. Javonte Williams could have the same outlook as Zamir White at a discount if Audric Estime doesn’t emerge, and the Titans running back duo could also be RB2/Flex options available in the 9th round.

Embrace the Running Back Depth

My recommendation is to only take one running back in the first 4-5 rounds and employ the same shotgun approach for your RB2 that the Zero RB drafters will employ for their RB1 and RB2. I have not mentioned the Joe Mixon/Josh Jacobs/James Cook/Rachaad White/Ken Walker III tier yet. Of the group, Walker offers the highest ceiling and is the best target, but any of them could be third-round values in a best-case scenario. I wouldn't avoid the tier completely, but the tiers just below and above this tier offer better value and don't force you to forego a top tight end or WR2 at a WR3 price.

What if you take your RB2 in the first three rounds?

There are good reasons to take two running backs early. A .5 PPR scoring system, high confidence in two backs going in the first three rounds, or feeling good about lots of later picks at wide receiver the same way we feel confident about later picks at running back. Just make sure you have clarity on those targets, as you’ll have ground to make up at wide receiver at a minimum. Don’t be afraid to take your favorite back from that 5th-10th round range group to deny an opponent who waited at running back an out and reinforce depth at the most fragile position in fantasy football.

Running back bench - 11th round and later

No matter your approach, at least your third (and if you don’t take one in the first four rounds, maybe your fourth, too) running back should come from that rich 5th-10th round group. Your other running back bench spots are important. Here are three categories to stock your bench with:

High weekly floor PPR backs

Ideal in: Deep leagues with thin waiver wires

Targets

• Chuba Hubbard (CAR)
• Austin Ekeler (WAS)
• Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN)
• Antonio Gibson (NE)
• Justice Hill (BAL)

Ekeler, Gibson, and Hill also have injury upside if the starter goes down. Hubbard should be a starter for at least the first 2-3 weeks of the season and represents great Best Ball value. Monitor the battle between the Eagles' 2024 fourth-round pick Shipley and scatback Kenneth Gainwell for snaps behind Saquon Barkley.

Injury-Upside Backups

Ideal in: Leagues with long benches and less waiver wire churn

Targets

• Blake Corum (LAR)
• Jaylen Wright (MIA)
• Zach Charbonnet (SEA)
• Ty Chandler (MIN)
• Tyler Allgeier (ATL)
• Jordan Mason (SF)
• Braelon Allen (NYJ)
• Ray Davis (BUF)
• Bucky Irving (TB)
• Sione Vaki (DET)
• Tank Bigsby (JAX)
• MarShawn Lloyd (GB)
• Carson Steele (KC)

Corum fits in any draft plan as a potential league winner. Chandler and Wright are behind backs not known for their durability. Check in on the camp battle between MarShawn Lloyd and AJ Dillon in Green Bay and monitor Mitchell’s hamstring injury along with Jordan Mason’s preseason/camp performance behind him. Vaki, Bigsby, Irving, Allen, and Davis have all had great summers and fit in any draft plan if bench size allows. Steele has come on and could be a short yardage back and backup to Isiah Pacheco.

Monitor Depth Chart Resolution for Clarity

• Kansas City (Deneric Prince, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Carson Steele)

Wild Cards with Uncertain Roles

Ideal In: Deep short-bench leagues where you want to move on quickly 

Targets

• JK Dobbins (LAC)
• Khalil Herbert (CHI)
• Kimani Vidal  (LAC)
• Audric Estime (DEN)
• Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG)
• D’Onta Foreman (CLE)

Vidal, Estime, and Tracy could be worth holding if they have a small role to begin the season but show out well in their limited opportunity. There are early indications that Tracy could be the clear backup to Devin Singletary ahead of Eric Gray. Monitor Nick Chubb’s recovery to see how long Foreman’s value will persist into the season.

Draft Strategy: Wide Receiver

Taking your WR1 in the first round

There is no debate about the #1 receiver this year. It’s CeeDee Lamb, who was well ahead of the pack after the Cowboys made bye week adjustments to feature him and the passing game in the second half of the season. Tyreek Hill is usually second, Ja’Marr Chase third, Justin Jefferson fourth, and Amon-Ra St. Brown fifth. It’s reasonable to have Jefferson third after he finished strong despite having poor quarterback play, and St. Brown could end up higher than his WR5 rank. If you aren’t enamored with Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, or Bijan Robinson and you’re picking in the top 6, you’ll end up with one of these receivers.

If you pick in the second half of the first round and don’t want to go with a running back, A.J. Brown should be there at 7-8-9, Garrett Wilson at 9-10-11, and Puka Nacua (whose training camp injury was probably a false alarm) at 10-11-12.

Target: CeeDee Lamb
Slot: 1-2

Target: Tyreek Hill
Slot: 2-3

Target: Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson
Slot: 3-5

Target: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Slot: 5-7

Target: A.J. Brown
Slot: 7-9

Target: Garrett Wilson
Slot: 9-11

Target: Puka Nacua
Slot: 10-12

Taking your WR1 in the second round

The second round is full of “eye of the beholder” wide receivers. Because of this, you might opt for Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, or De’Von Achane, with the second-round wide receiver values close to some of the receivers going in the third round. If you do go wideout in the second, a few of the members of that tier have been gaining momentum this summer, making you feel better about the pick. The options include rookies that will be the clear #1 in their offense (Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers), #1 receivers with subpar quarterbacks (Davante Adams and Chris Olave), receivers that aren’t clear #1s but are in great offenses (Deebo Samuel, Nico Collins, Cooper Kupp), and a #1 who finally has a good quarterback (Drake London). Don’t let ADP make the decision for you; take a stand on who you like.

Target: Any of 8 options
Round: 2

Taking your WR1 in the third round

Starting RB/RB is hard to recommend with the running back dead zone shifting later and becoming the value zone, but it is possible to start McCaffrey/Achane, Hall/Barkley, Gibbs/Taylor - in other words, RB/RB is in play from just about any draft slot. If you are going wide receiver in the early third, hope that Nabers, Kupp, DeVonta Smith, or Mike Evans are there. The mid- to late-third options aren’t as attractive, with DJ Moore and DK Metcalf in the middle of the round and Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, Michael Pittman, and Zay Flowers at the end of the round. The dropoff at wide receiver within the round is steeper than the spread between third-round backs Derrick Henry/Kyren Williams and fourth-round backs Isiah Pacheco/Travis Etienne. This only seems like a viable option with a McCaffrey/Achane start. If you take a running back in the first that isn’t McCaffrey, have a good idea of your favorite second-round wide receiver options.

Target: Kupp, Nabers, DeVonta Smith, Mike Evans
Round: Early third

WR2 in the second round

This is going to be a preferred draft strategy, with the depth at quarterback, running back, and elite tight end tier going off the board in the 3rd-5th. Again, sorting out the large tier of second-round wideouts should be high on your to-do list.

WR2 in the third round

If you take McCaffrey in the early first or Achane in the late second, getting your WR2 in the early second works out well with most of the early third-round options (Kupp, Nabers, Smith, Evans) in the same value range as the second round receivers. Tank Dell is a good target if you are taking your WR2 in the late third.

WR2 in the fourth round 

If you are getting your second wide receiver in the fourth round, it means you have two running backs or a running back and a tight end in the first three rounds. This makes the rest of your draft less flexible, but it could work. The only problem is that the fourth round is usually not a wide receiver round. The only receivers going in the 37-48 range are Zay Flowers (barely), George Pickens, Amari Cooper, Tee Higgins, and Christian Kirk. It’s possible that early fifth-rounder Terry McLaurin is a better pick than any of them.

WR2 in the fifth round

If you’re taking your WR2 in the fifth round, you’ve taken two running backs (maybe three?) and a tight end. The best targets are McLaurin, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Calvin Ridley, and Chris Godwin. Ideally, though, you’re getting your WR3/Flex from this group.

WR3/Flex in the 6th/7th

You should definitely have two wide receivers by the fifth round. Otherwise, you aren’t going to be able to take advantage of any falling value at QB/RB/TE. At this point in the draft, you should be thinking upside. This range is better for QB/RB/TE value (especially RB), but there are some attractive wide receiver picks.

Sixth Round

• Rome Odunze, CHI - Projected by fantasy players to be third behind DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, should be second in snaps and could be the most productive.
• Christian Watson, GB - If he can stay healthy, he will be the most valuable Packers receiver
• Xavier Worthy, KC - Big play upside with Patrick Mahomes. May start going in the 5th
• Diontae Johnson, CAR - 100 catch upside in new offense, monitor injuries
• Ladd McConkey, LAC - Would be a slam dunk if he and Justin Herbert were healthier
• Seventh Round
• Jameson Williams, DET - Tons of summer buzz and should feast in single coverage with big play spike weeks.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA - Signs that he could break out this year coming out of camp

Upside Bench Picks

Wide receiver is strong enough in the first seven rounds that you should be able to concentrate on your high-confidence bench picks and allot picks to speculative running backs in the early bench pick range. Later on, the floodgates will open and ADP is not as reliable, so have a priority wide receiver or two to target in the 12th-14th rounds.

9th/10th Round Targets

• Khalil Shakir (BUF)
• Romeo Doubs (GB)
• Brandin Cooks (DAL)
• Dontayvion Wicks (GB)

11th/12th Round Targets

• Mike Williams (NYJ)
• Darnell Mooney (ATL)

13th Round or Later Targets

• Demarcus Robinson (LAR)
• Greg Dortch (ARI)
• Jalen McMillan (TB)
• Andrei Iosivas (CIN)
• Jalen Tolbert (DAL)
• Treylon Burks (TEN)
• Tre Tucker (LV)
• Kalif Raymond (DET)

Draft Strategy: Tight End

The days of Travis Kelce reigning over the tight end position are over… or are they? He had a terrible second half, which created a logjam at the top of the position, albeit at a much lower scoring level than Kelce had established in recent years. Because of that, there’s a four-player tier at the top of the ranks, and you can likely get one of them in the fourth round.

Travis Kelce, Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, or Mark Andrews in the fourth

This seems too good to be true, but it is. If you want to break the seal at tight end in the early fourth (or maybe late third if you like the top group of RB/WR left similarly), Kelce (who redeemed himself in the playoffs and should be playing in a vertical pass offense that opens up the middle of the field for him) is a good pick, as is Sam LaPorta, who should only get better after putting up a huge rookie season last year. In the second half of the round, there’s Trey McBride, who was a strong TE1 from the waiver wire once Zach Ertz went down, or Mark Andrews, who is one of the best age/injury fear discount players.

Target: Travis Kelce, Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, Mark Andrews
Round: 4th

The Mid-TE1 tier

If you are picking the early 4th and don’t go with a tight end, you should consider Pitts, who has the best quarterback of his career, in the late 5th or early 6th. You might be asking: "Where’s Dalton Kincaid?" He’s only going a few picks after Andrews and McBride, but as long as Dawson Knox is healthy, Kincaid shouldn’t be that close to that proven tier. Pass on him and hope that George Kittle is there in the 6th (assuming you didn’t go tight end in the 4th). He’s yet another player with an overweighted age/injury fear discount. If you didn’t go tight end in the late 4th/early 5th, Evan Engram, who could lead all tight ends in receptions, will be there for you in the late 6th/early 7th in PPR leagues.

Target: Kyle Pitts
Round: Late 5th/Early 6th

Target: George Kittle
Round: 6th

Target: Evan Engram
Round: Late 6th/Early 7th

TE1 Depth

You can forego the tight end position for the first seven rounds, passing on the top 8, and still have some more than viable options.

Jake Ferguson in the late 7th/early 8th

He’s the clear TE1 for his team, having a great summer, and should be playing in a pass-first offense. The best is yet to come for Ferguson.

David Njoku in the 8th/9th

Njokue wasn’t far off of the top tier at tight end with a Joe Flacco-aided strong late finish. He was getting more volume from Deshaun Watson before Watson got hurt, so Njoku could be a discount pick as TE11 off of the board, just behind Brock Bowers, who could be a rookie hit purely on talent but is in a run-first offense with lots of other viable targets including Davante Adams.

Dallas Goedert in the 10th

You can be the last to take your starting tight end and still get Goedert, who is the equal of many of the players ahead of him talent-wise, and now has an offensive coordinator that should make him more important in the passing game. The Eagles don’t have an experienced WR3, so that adds some A.J. Brown/DeVonta Smith injury upside to his profile.

Pat Freiermuth in the 11th

Even TE13 has a chance to be a solid TE1 with Arthur Smith emphasizing tight end and the Steelers lacking a strong WR2 option. Freiermuth is also reportedly having a great summer.

What about T.J. Hockenson?

Whether to take (or make a TE strategy around) Hockenson depends on your bench size and whether your league has IR spots that allow players on the PUP list. If you have a large enough bench (7 spots at a minimum, more is better) to hold Hockenson through a likely multi-week absence to begin the season without missing out on early waiver wire runs because your bench is stocked with speculative holds, then consider stashing Hockenson, and maybe even making him your TE1 supplemented with one or two late round picks to cover him early in the season. If you have IR spots that Hockenson would be eligible for if he starts on the PUP list, then taking him at ADP is a no brainer (this should also affect your decision on Nick Chubb, although Chubb is less likely to start the season on the PUP list than Hockenson). All signs point to Hockenson being central in the passing game again once he can play, and he’s not a player whose game is predicated on speed. If you do go with Hockenson as your TE1, you’ll need to make sure not to take too many speculative holds like rookie or injury-upside running backs to gum up your bench. Hockenson, as TE1, works with strong earlier running back builds that don’t require a lot of bench picks. Hockenson as TE2 could be so good as to be unfair to your league. If your TE1 pick hits, you’ll have great trade bait when Hockenson returns. Break ties in favor of taking Hockenson (and Nick Chubb).

Take a second tight end

The depth at tight end extends past the TE1 tier. There’s a plethora of options (other than Hockenson) who could threaten to break into the Top 10-12 this year who are available late in your draft:

• Jonnu Smith, MIA - Smith should be in your draft plan no matter how early you take your TE1. The Dolphins offense creates lots of space, and Mike McDaniel has talked about using the tight end more in the passing game because of Smith’s run-after-catch ability. Maybe Kyle Pitts was holding back Smith…
• Isaiah Likely, BAL - An injury upside tight end and more. If Mark Andrews goes down, Likely showed he could outproduce a healthy Andrews last year. This could become a Gronkowski/Hernandez foundational duo.
• Tucker Kraft, GB - Kraft has come on quickly in camp and appears to be ahead of Luke Musgrave. Musgrave also got hurt multiple times last year. Kraft is the Packers tight end to target late.
• Hunter Henry, NE - When a team’s most experienced wide receiver is coming back from an ACL tear, you might ask who is their best receiving tight end?
• Cade Otton, TB - Otton quietly continues to improve and should, at worst, be bye/injury depth, but could easily emerge into the TE1 ranks.
• Zach Ertz, WAS - Ertz may not stay healthy for long, and he may have a lot yards per catch than Christian McCaffrey’s yards per carry, but low TE1 level production as long as he’s on the field is within the range of outcomes.

Draft Strategy: Kicker

Are leagues still using kickers in fantasy lineups? I’m willing to defend it, and not just because I cover the position for our team and training camp reports. Kicker as a reason that a matchup is won or lost is cruel, random, and senseless… and something that happens in the NFL most weeks. 

Wait until the last round to take your kicker and get one of these underrated options:

• Jake Bates, DET
• Jason Sanders, MIA
• Matt Gay, IND
• Jason Myers, SEA
• Cairo Santos, CHI

Draft Strategy: Defense/Special Teams

Streaming is the best approach here, so we’re looking at Week 1 matchups and avoiding defenses that have a top 6 ADP, rendering them unlikely to be there in the next to last round.

Targets

• Seattle (vs Denver, Week 2 at New England)
• Cincinnati (vs New England)
• Minnesota (at NY Giants)
• Tampa Bay (vs Washington)
• Chicago (vs Tennessee)
• New Orleans (vs Carolina)

Happy drafting, all! I’ll keep updating this as the preseason unfolds and continue to share everything I am digesting and processing that is changing my approach to drafts for the rest of the preseason and right up until draft season ends when the actual season begins. Always feel free to hit me on Twitter if you have any specific questions!

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