Saquon Barkley: Is He Set for an MVP Season?

Photo: USA Today Sports

From NFC Least to NFC Beast

Saquon Barkley has been one of the few bright spots on the New York Giants offense for the last six seasons. Yet, GM Joe Schoen decided to let Barkley test the market, citing a concern about Barkley's workload and injury history. While it wasn't a surprise that Barkley landed the richest deal at the running back position ($26 million fully guaranteed, $12.6mm AAV), it surprised many that the Philadelphia Eagles were the highest bidders. The Eagles have already been an elite rushing team -- relying on a committee -- and the perception was that GM Howie Roseman valued spending big at other positions. But Roseman explained that he saw value in seeking value at a position most teams have been ignoring:

"From our perspective, you get to a situation where you kind of try to find, is something being undervalued?" Philadelphia's general manager Howie Roseman told Adam Schein recently on Mad Dog Sports Radio. "Is there a way to zig when everyone's zagging? Or I don't know if it's the opposite, and you're freakin' zagging when zigging. But I think that it's hard to find difference-making players and people, and it's hard to find them for a cost. Those guys, they go for a lot of money, and we felt like there was an opportunity to get one of those guys in Saquon and bring him to the team."

Sometimes, things are simple. When a powerhouse offensive team adds an elite skill player and pays them guaranteed money at the top of their position, you should bet on them as a fantasy asset. While Barkley has had a ton of carries and multiple serious injuries, we've learned that all NFL running backs carry substantial injury risk. Discounting Barkley for what's happened, particularly after he's been durable the last few seasons, would be too cute by half. He should be one of the top running backs in fantasy football for the following reasons:

1. Established track record of elite production
2. Moving from one of the worst offensive lines to one of the best
3. Moving to a team with immensely better skill players, making it impossible for defenses to key on him
4. A new offensive coordinator with a history of featuring a bell-cow running back

A Fantasy Star, When Healthy

Let's not mince words; Saquon Barkley hasn't been a pillar of health. He's played in 74 of 99 regular-season games. If that's a problem for you, nothing I say will convince you to draft Barkley in the first round this year. But if you're comfortable with his health based on a) how he played last year behind an awful offensive line and b) that the Eagles had no issues with his physical before signing him to a massive free-agent contract, then keep reading.

No one can question Barkley's aptitude. In fantasy circles, we use words like "excellent" and "elite" far too loosely, but Barkley lives up to the compliments.

Top 25 Running Backs, Ranked by Fantasy Points per Game (2018-2023)

In an era of running back committees and sub-package players, Barkley has delivered top-7 value thanks to his vision, versatility (he can play on any down or distance), and instincts.

Life after Kelce

Jason Kelce will go down as one of the Eagles' all-time best players, and his retirement -- while understandable -- leaves a gap hole in the heart of the locker room. His on-field value cannot be overstated, and he'll likely find his way into the Hall of Fame in a few years.

• 7-Time Pro Bowler
• 6-Time First Team All Pro
• 103.53 Hall of Fame Monitor Score

The good news for Barkley and the rest of the offense is that the Eagles prepared for Kelce's retirement. Despite having one of the league's best offensive lines for years, they've continued to draft young talent, including Landon Dickerson, Cam Jurgens, and Tyler Steen.

The projected 2024 lineup is:

• LT -- Jordan Mailata
• LG -- Landon Dickerson
• C -- Cam Jurgens
• RG -- Tyler Steen
• RT -- Lane Johnson

Matt Bitonti, Footballguys own offensive line specialist, ranks the Eagles as the league's No. 2 offensive line. Pro Football Focus agrees, ranking Philly No. 2 (behind Detroit).

Imagine what Barkley can accomplish playing behind an elite offensive line after toiling behind one of the league's worst throughout his Giants' tenure?

Year-End Offensive Line Rankings (PFF.com)

Kellen Moore's System

The Eagles started last season 10-1 but lost five of their last six games before suffering an embarrassing defeat in the playoffs against the Buccaneers. The late-season collapse forced Coach Sirianni to reassess his staff from top to bottom, including letting go of first-year offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, who had been a rising star as Jalen Hurts' quarterbacks coach before assuming play-calling duties in 2023. The team went outside the organization and hired Kellen Moore to fix the offense. Moore is coming off a disappointing season of his own as the Chargers play-caller, but that was as much about Justin Herbert not being 100% and substandard offensive line play outside of tackle Rashawn Slater.

Fortunately, Moore's resume before last year was sterling. In four seasons as the Cowboys play-caller, he fielded three elite units, the fourth of which was beset by Dak Prescott's absence for most of the season.

Kellen Moore's Play-Calling Tenure in Dallas (1999-2022)

Note: 2020 includes Dak Prescott missing 11 games and both Tyron Smith and Zack Martin missing significant chunks of the season.

The biggest question about Moore's arrival is whether it will materially shift the run/pass ratio. In Nick Sirianni's three years in Philadelphia, the Eagles have been among the most run-heavy teams in the league.

Eagles Pass/Run Ratio under Nick Sirianni (2021-2023)

Moore has proven able to adjust his play-calling to suit the demands of his head coaches. He's already worked for three head coaches: Jason Garrett, Mike McCarthy, and Brandon Staley. Given Jalen Hurts' own rushing prowess and the Eagles' excellent run-blocking line, we have to assume the ratio won't change too much. Maybe a few percent more toward throwing the ball, but not all the way up to the 58% Moore utilized in Dallas.

Won't Jalen Hurts' Rushing Prowess Hamper Barkley?

Hurts has scored a stunning 38 rushing touchdowns in his three seasons as a full-time starter and has 41 rushing touchdowns in his career. Despite only being in the league for four years, Hurts already ranks 4th all-time in rushing touchdowns by a quarterback.

All-Time Rushing Touchdowns, Quarterback

While that's great news for Hurts and explains why he'll be one of the first quarterbacks drafted, it's caused some to worry that Barkley's fantasy value will be hurt in kind. Yet, the stats would argue to the contrary. The Eagles run a LOT, and their running backs have amassed more production than Barkley, regardless of what Hurts does on the ground.

Running Back Rushing Stats during Barkley's Tenure versus the Sirianni Philly Years

Looking ONLY at running back rushing production, the Eagles have outgained the Giants by 362 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0.52 yards per rush. In other words, even if Jalen Hurts continues rushing for double-digit touchdowns, Saquon Barkley is still well-positioned for career-best numbers.

Saquon Barkley Recent Stats

Saquon Barkley 2024 Projections

Final Thoughts

Saquon Barkley to the Eagles wasn't on most prognosticators' bingo cards before this offseason, but GM Howie Roseman is fond of zigging when others zag. Fantasy managers get to reap the rewards by securing one of the few players who -- if healthy -- could dethrone Christian McCaffrey atop the fantasy rankings. Barkley has been a fixture as a fantasy RB1 despite playing for a team with bad quarterbacking and awful offensive line play. Imagine what he'll be capable of now that he'll have an elite offensive line and great quarterbacking.