Go here for this week's Passing Matchups.
Top 3 Rushing Matchups
Detroit vs Washington
After their bye last week, the Lions get a significant boost to their rushing attack as they'll get David Montgomery back this week after the running back has missed the last three games. With Montgomery, this takes some burden off of Jahmyr Gibbs, who had averaged 25.6 touches per game in Montgomery's absence compared to an average of 16.0 touches per game with Montgomery active. The Lion's committee backfield, along with one of the league's best offensive lines, make this an incredibly difficult offense to deal with, even before factoring in the passing threat that the Lions pose to opposing defenses. Detroit has run for 146.4 yards per game, the sixth-most in the NFL this season, and is second in rushing touchdowns, with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combined for 32 touchdowns this season. One thing to watch this week is the health of right guard Kevin Zeitler and left tackle Taylor Decker, who missed practice on Wednesday. Decker seems extremely likely to play, as he missed due to the birth of a child, while Zeitler is dealing with a hamstring injury. If he were to miss, it would be a major loss as the veteran is having one of the best years of his career.
Washington has been one of the weaker run-stopping units in the NFL this season. While Bobby Wagner remains one of the game's elite run-stopping linebackers, he can only do so much behind this defensive line. This defensive line was built to rush the passer while sacrificing the ability to stop the run. The team brought in Jer'Zhan Newton as they hoped he would solidify the defensive tackle position, but he has struggled against the run. Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen are liabilities at this point against the run and far from the elite defensive linemen we saw early in their careers. Washington is allowing the fourth-most rushing yards to opposing running backs this season, as they're allowing 114 per game. Having Wagner at middle linebacker does help eliminate some of the big games, as only five running backs have topped 100 yards, two of which were Saquon Barkley. But almost every running back they've faced has had some level of success, as 18 running backs have topped 50 yards against this defense this season.
Baltimore at Buffalo
Baltimore's rushing attack in the postseason is even more dangerous than in the regular season. Even in a 28-14 victory last week, Lamar Jackson ran the ball 15 times for 81 yards, his most rushing attempts since Week 1 in the primetime kickoff game against Kansas City. Meanwhile, Derrick Henry ran the ball 26 times for 186 yards and two touchdowns against Pittsburgh. Henry's volume has ramped up in recent weeks, and he has now averaged 24.3 carries per game over the last four weeks. This is an offense that the only way to stop them is to get out to an early lead. If you fall behind early, trying to stop Henry and Jackson running 40 times with 300-pound fullback Patrick Ricard as a lead blocker will be a nightmare. The Ravens offensive line is led by center Tyler Linderbaum, who has emerged as one of the best young centers in the NFL. With Zay Flowers looking unlikely to play this week, the Ravens will need to turn to a run-heavy game plan again.
Buffalo's run defense has been up and down throughout the season. While their numbers look better lately, Buffalo has faced a favorable matchup over the last four games, with Denver, New England, the New York Jets in a blowout game script, and New England again. During the year, Buffalo has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, as they've struggled against some of the game's elite running backs. Kyren Williams, Jonathan Taylor, De'Von Achane twice, and Derrick Henry had massive games against Buffalo. In their first meeting, Derrick Henry had 199 yards on 24 carries and a touchdown, adding three receptions for 10 yards and a receiving touchdown. The defensive line is a strength for Buffalo, but if you can get past the defensive line, that's where the elite running backs have created problems, as the Bills linebackers and safeties have been a liability. There was some hope that Matt Milano would greatly improve this defense, but since coming back in Week 13, Milano still does not seem 100% healthy, as he missed both Week 16 and 18 and is playing just about 65% of snaps when he is playing. He has not been the game-changing force we've seen in prior seasons.
Philadelphia vs LA Rams
The Eagles have turned to a run-heavy offense for most of the season despite having elite wide receiver options. Last week, we saw the Eagles run the ball 34 times compared to just 21 pass attempts. Saquon Barkley, coming off a week of rest, had 25 carries for 119 yards and has topped 100 rushing yards in nine of his last eleven games. Taking one of the league's best running backs in Barkley and having him run behind one of the two best offensive lines in the NFL is a dangerous combination, as this unit is led by All-Pro Jordan Mailata, who has had a nearly perfect season. At right tackle, Lane Johnson continues to play at a high level, while the interior of the offensive line all excel at run-blocking. This unit has been healthy for nearly the entire season and has high cohesion, as four of the five linemen have been with the team for multiple seasons, with only Mekhi Becton being in his first year with the Eagles.
While the Rams defensive line has been elite at rushing the passer, led by Defensive Rookie of the Year Jared Verse, this is a defense that has struggled against the run as rookie Braden Fiske has been a liability against the run for most of the season. In their first meeting between these two teams, Saquon Barkley had the game of the season, with 255 yards, two touchdowns, and 47 receiving yards. Except for the Eagles game earlier this season, the Rams safeties have been the bright spot as both Quentin Lake and Kamren Curl have been able to prevent some of the big plays this season and cover up some of the holes that this team has at linebacker as Christian Rozeboom has struggled against the run. Undrafted rookie linebacker Omar Speights has been a run-stopping specialist since taking over from Troy Reeder, who was placed on IR in Week 8.
Bottom 3 Rushing Matchups
Houston at Kansas City
Joe Mixon has been one of the most predictable running backs in the NFL this season. He dominates in average or above matchups, but when he faces some of the league's best-run defenses, he is largely eliminated. Mixon has run for 100 yards in eight games this season, including last week against the Chargers, but in games against Kansas City, Miami, and Baltimore to end the season, he struggled, running for just 35 yards per game. This week, he gets a rematch against Kansas City. In their first meeting, he had 57 yards on 14 carries, primarily set up by a 22-yard run. Part of the issue for this rushing attack is the offensive line. Outside of left tackle Laremy Tunsil, this unit has struggled this season as they rank 21st in Matt Bitonti's offensive line rankings, primarily propped up by Tunsil. Rookie right tackle Blake Fisher has been a liability as a run-blocker, while center Jarrett Patterson is a much better pass-blocker than a run-blocker. It remains to be seen who will play right guard this week for Houston, as Shaq Mason and Juice Scruggs were limited in practice on Wednesday after not practicing on Tuesday.
Kansas City's run defense started the season on a record-breaking start, and while they did normalize a little bit, this is still the league's best defense. Kansas City is allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, 3.7 yards per carry to the position, and only Jerome Ford has topped 75 yards as Ford had a 62-yard run while finishing with 84 for the day. The Chiefs are a dangerous front seven led by All-Pro Chris Jones, who continues to be as dominant of a defensive lineman as any player in the NFL, as he can line up at all four positions to take advantage of the defensive mismatch. This is a unit that has extremely high cohesion, which is critical when it comes to stopping the run, as the Chiefs have largely been able to keep their defense together despite winning back-to-back Super Bowls, thanks in large part to Patrick Mahomes II taking a less-than-market contract as well as building the defense through the draft with players such as Leo Chenal, George Karlaftis, and Nick Bolton.
Buffalo vs Baltimore
James Cook dominated last week with 120 yards on 23 carries while scoring a touchdown. Cook has scored a touchdown in eight of his last nine games, scoring 11 total over that span. The Bills are among the best red zone offenses in the NFL, as they rank third in touchdown percentage and score a touchdown on 68% of their red zone trips. Trying to defend against Josh Allen's dual-threat ability opens up significant rushing opportunities for James Cook, who often becomes an afterthought by opposing defenses. This offense has two excellent run-blocking tackles in Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown. The big question for Buffalo is whether Ray Davis will be able to play this week after suffering a concussion last week. He did practice on Thursday but has not yet been cleared from the protocol. If Davis cannot go, Ty Johnson would see an increase in snaps as Johnson has seen about 35% of the snaps over the last eight games but did see 45% of snaps as he split with James Cook with Davis being out. We have also seen fullback Reggie Gillam see more volume in recent weeks as he's averaging about 25% of snaps over the last four games compared to about 10% before these last four games.
Baltimore's defensive line is an absolute nightmare for opposing offensive linemen. Last week, they completely eliminated the Steelers having any hope of running the ball, as Pittsburgh ran just eight times for 23 total yards. Baltimore has not allowed a running back to top 50 yards since Week 13, when Saquon Barkley needed 23 carries to get to 107 yards. (He was the only running back to top 100 all season against this defense.) This is a defensive line led by 340-pound Travis Jones, 310-pound Nnamdi Madubuike, and run-stopping specialist 360-pound Michael Pierce that simply exhausts smaller offensive lines that have to push these players around all game. The entire job of this defensive line is to prevent opposing linemen from getting to the second level so that their All-Pro linebacker and safety Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton can clean up the play. Alongside Roquan Smith, linebacker Malik Harrison has been a strength in stopping the run despite his struggles in pass coverage, as he replaced Trenton Simpson, who was benched earlier this season.
Washington at Detroit
With Austin Ekeler back from the concussion that put him on IR, the Commanders have returned to their committee approach of a split backfield, with Brian Robinson Jr seeing 51% of snaps compared to Austin Ekeler at 47% last week. Neither running back succeeded against the elite run-stopping Buccaneers, as Robinson had just 16 yards on 10 carries while Ekeler had 27 yards on eight carries. Robinson has been a running back who needs a high volume of carries to succeed. In the five games that he had 10 or fewer carries, he averaged just 2.0 yards per carry, while he's averaging 4.3 yards per carry on the year. In a difficult matchup this week, Ekeler should likely have a big role as he's more of the slasher who can create holes and the better receiver who can be an extension of the run game. A big issue for the Commanders is their offensive line, particularly at the tackles, as rookie left tackle Brandon Coleman has struggled along with journeyman Andrew Wylie at right tackle.
Detroit got some big news back in Week 18 as they got Alex Anzalone back from a broken forearm that caused him to miss six weeks. This is a defense that, despite a significant amount of injuries to Anzalone, Malcolm Rodriguez, Alim McNeill, Marcus Davenport, and Aidan Hutchinson, they are allowing the third-fewest rushing yards in the NFL this season. Detroit has been nearly flawless all season except for a 48-42 loss to the Bills, in which James Cook and Ty Johnson had huge games. Outside of that game, no running back has topped 100 yards against this defense all season. The strength of the Lions' defense continues to be their safeties as All-Pro Kerby Joseph, along with Brian Branch, make up the best safety duo in the NFL this season as both players are elite run-stoppers. Their 2023 first-round linebacker, Jack Campbell, has also taken a major step forward in his development as he has been forced into a role that has him as the primary tackler this year with all of the injuries the team has suffered. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn is one of the best in the NFL and should be devising a game plan to shut down Ekeler and Robinson this week.
