Go here for this week's Passing Matchups.
Top 3 Rushing Matchups
Tampa Bay vs Washington
The Buccaneers are an interesting team heading into the playoffs this week. After the Buccaneers lost to Dallas in Week 16, Rachaad White's role has largely fallen off a cliff. While he had ten touches against Dallas, most through the passing game with seven receptions, he had just seven touches in Week 17 and zero touches in Week 18 despite being active. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen came out and said after the Cowboys game that they need to get Bucky Irving more snaps. A big reason for that likely is that White had two critical fumbles in Weeks 15 and 16, and in must-win games, the team decided to consolidate the touches to Bucky Irving. Irving has had an outstanding rookie season and has proven that he is the better back for this offense. He has averaged 5.4 yards per carry on the year, finishing with 1,122 yards, and any myth about him being unable to carry a heavy workload due to being undersized has largely been put to rest as he has 17 or more touches in each of his last four games including 24 against Carolina in Week 17.
Washington's run defense has struggled for most of the season. On the year, they're allowing the fourth-most rushing yards in the NFL, as five running backs have topped 100 yards against them this season. This is a defense that is a work in progress under first-year head coach Dan Quinn. Quinn inherited a roster that was depleted with talent as they had traded away two of their best defensive linemen mid-season last year, had the worst secondary in football, and had a linebacker unit that struggled to make tackles. While he solved the secondary and the linebackers, the defensive line has been a problem. Rookie Jer'Zhan Newton has struggled, and while the Commanders did get Jonathan Allen back in Week 17, he has been a liability in the run game since his return. Allen has always been a better pass rusher than a run-stuffer, so he's quick to get into the backfield, allowing linemen to get downfield. Bobby Wagner, at age 34, is having another All-Pro caliber season in his first year in Washington. In their first meeting this season, Bucky Irving slashed through Washington as he had 62 yards on just nine carries in his first game as a rookie back in Week 1.
Houston vs LA Chargers
After being one of the best-rushing offenses to start the season, Joe Mixon and the Texans seem to be sputtering toward the finish line while still being just good enough to take advantage of one of the NFL's weakest divisions. Mixon started the season by rushing for over 100 yards in seven of his first team games, yet over the last four games, he has failed to top 30 yards in three of his four games. There is some hope despite the recent struggles. Over the last four games, last week, the Texans only played their starters for a short period of time, while in the other three games in this recent streak, Houston faced Kansas City, Baltimore, and Miami, who have three of the best-run defenses in the NFL. As long as Houston can stay competitive in this game, they're going to lean on the run game here, and while we may not see the 25+ carries that we saw earlier this season from Mixon, he still should have a better offensive performance than in recent weeks.
While on paper, the Chargers seem to have improved their run defense over the last three weeks, don't be fooled. This is still a flawed unit that benefits from facing Denver, New England, and Las Vegas over their final three games. The Chargers have been a defense that started strong against the run in Jim Harbaugh's first season, but they've shown weaknesses as of late that date back to the loss of Asante Samuel Jr. This was a team that was built to rush the passer with Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack and trust their secondary to cover opposing receivers one-on-one to cover up their defensive line and linebackers. While Poona Ford has been great, Otito Ogbonnia and Morgan Fox have been two of the worst defensive linemen in the NFL, while linebackers Denzel Perryman and Daiyan Henley have been forced to focus more on coverage than stopping the run. The Chargers suffered a big loss at safety as they lost Elijah Molden, who had been forced to step up as Derwin James Jr. had moved to the nickel corner position with Samuel's injury. With Molden out, this creates a big hole, as he has been one of the team's best run-stoppers this season. The Chargers have allowed 4.7 yards per carry since Week 7.
Minnesota at LA Rams
In a meaningless Week 18 game, the Rams lost Blake Corum to a broken forearm, which will make their rushing attack entirely run through Kyren Williams even more than it already has this season. Outside of a four-game touchdown slump mid-season, Williams has consistently been one of the best running backs all year. Scoring a touchdown in 11 of his 12 other games, Williams finished the year with 14 rushing touchdowns and two receiving touchdowns. He's the clear target for the Rams when they get down to the red zone, as he had 79 red zone opportunities this season, while the next closest player on the Rams had just 17, which was Puka Nacua. Williams finished third in rushing attempts for the season, and while he is not a big play running back as he had just two carries over 20 yards all season, he's productive, averaging 4.1 yards per carry. With his volume, he's been able to top 60 yards in 14 of his last 15 games this season. The Rams should get Rob Havenstein back this week after he missed the last two games with a shoulder injury, which will be a significant upgrade from a leadership and productivity standpoint for the Rams against Minnesota.
The Rams are a rebuilding defense after the surprising loss of Aaron Donald this offseason. On the year, they're allowing 101 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, which is 12th worst in the NFL, but where it is concerning is the efficiency numbers, as opposing running backs are averaging 4.7 yards per carry. This team has been forced to rely upon young players to step up, and with most rookies, the results are somewhat unpredictable. First-round pick Jared Verse has been one of the best picks in the draft so far, as the outside linebacker is the favorite to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. Meanwhile, second-round pick Braden Fiske has been the opposite. Fiske has been a complete liability along the defensive line this season. The Rams have also been forced to start undrafted free agent rookie Omar Speights after they lost Troy Reeder for the season. On most weeks, this would not qualify as a great matchup, but instead, it would be a good matchup. However, most teams that are remaining are quality defenses. The Rams are not a shutdown unit, but this young group has only been exposed three times this season as James Conner, Saquon Barkley, and Alvin Kamara all topped 100 yards against them.
Bottom 3 Rushing Matchup
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
The Steelers will be taking on the Ravens for the third time this season, and in their two meetings, their rushing attacks were completely different game plans. In their first meeting, the Steelers controlled the clock as they took a run-heavy approach with Najee Harris, who had 18 carries, while Jaylen Warren supplemented him with nine carries. However, in their second meeting, which was a 34-17 loss, Jaylen Warren led the way with 12 carries compared to Harris, who only had nine on the day. While the 34-17 score looks like it was game script dependent, the game was a 24-17 game heading into the fourth quarter. The team seems to have moved away from Najee Harris over the last several weeks, as the running back is averaging just 10 carries per game over the last four games compared to 17 over their first 13 games. While Harris had led in snap count for most of the season, it has been Warren who has outsnapped Harris over the last four games. If history has any indication here, Najee Harris will get the first look for the Steelers, and his usage will entirely be game-script dependent, as the Steelers are going to try to replicate their first matchup, which was keeping it a low-scoring ball control type game.
Baltimore's run defense continues to be the gold standard in the NFL. Outside of Saquon Barkley topping 100 yards back in Week 13, the Ravens have not allowed a running back to top 50 yards since Week 10, and only three running backs all season have topped 50 yards. This defense is built to stop the run with elite players at each level, as Travis Jones and Michael Pierce clog up the interior of the defensive line, while All-Pro Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton remain amongst the league's best. The Ravens also benefit from having a weak pass defense that has allowed the second-most passing yards all season, which has allowed them to face the third-fewest rushing attempts in the NFL this season. In their first meeting this season, the Steelers did have some of the most success of any team as Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren combined for 104 rushing yards and 57 receiving yards, so we could see the Steelers look to go back to that game plan this week after abandoning it the second time these two teams met.
Washington at Tampa Bay
Now that Jayden Daniels seems to be fully recovered from his mid-season rib injury, Daniels has been running more at the expense of Brian Robinson Jr. Not counting Week 18, Daniels has run at least nine times in each of his last four games, including a 16-carry, 127-yard performance in Week 17. Robinson has averaged just 11.5 carries per game over his last two full games, and with Austin Ekeler back from IR, it should continue to suppress the upside of Robinson, who has at least 16 carries in seven games this season. One thing to keep an eye on is the health of center Tyler Biadasz. He left early in Week 17 with an ankle injury, and while he had limited practice, this would be a significant loss for Washington if he were unable to go.
Tampa Bay got off to a slow start this season defensively, but in hindsight, most team's rushing stats are going to look skewed when you face Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Alvin Kamara, and Jahmyr Gibbs/David Montgomery over your first seven games. Since Week 8, the Buccaneers have re-emerged as one of the league's best run-stopping units as they've allowed the fewest rushing yards per game, the second-fewest fantasy points per game, and are allowing just 3.5 yards per carry. The Buccaneers also received great news this week that they will get former All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. back after he was injured in Week 14. Winfield is an elite run-stopper, giving the Buccaneers a three-tiered run-stopping unit led by 350-pound defensive lineman Vita Vea and veteran linebacker Lavonte David. Also helping this run defense is that this is one of the league's worst secondaries, as they're allowing the third-most passing yards on the year.
Green Bay at Philadelphia
While the Packers pulled their starters early in Week 18, the one thing that they made sure to do was to continue to give Josh Jacobs the ball in the red zone to continue his touchdown streak. Jacobs now has a touchdown in eight straight games, and he scored 12 touchdowns during that streak. In his first year in Green Bay, the Packers have changed their philosophy of having a committee backfield to centralize it around Jacobs. This is partially due to the lost season from rookie MarShawn Lloyd, who the Packers had hoped might be able to contribute this postseason after suffering an ankle injury and then Appendicitis this season. However, Lloyd was placed on IR this week after suffering a hamstring injury. This will leave the Packers with just Jacobs and Emmanuel Wilson, who does have 103 carries on the season, but most of those have been in blowout games and end-of-game situations. While the offensive line is relatively average, ranking 14th in Footballguys Matt Bitonti's rankings, it has been one of the healthiest offensive lines in the NFL as only center Josh Meyers has missed time, and he missed just one game this season.
Philadelphia's run defense has continued to improve throughout the season. This is a young group led by Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, Nolan Smith Jr., and Nakobe Dean, while free agent signee Zack Baun may be the best free agent signing of the offseason as the linebacker has been dominant all season. Howie Roseman has built a roster that, despite being one of the younger defenses in the NFL, has extreme cohesion, given Carter, Davis, Smith, and Dean have all been playing with each other for 6+ years dating back to their time at Georgia. Philadelphia has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs on the year. Only one running back has topped 100 yards against this defense, which was Rico Dowdle; in a 41-7 losing effort for Dallas, they seemed committed to being the first team to run for 100 yards against the Eagles as they ran the ball 23 times with Dowdle despite losing by 34 points. The Eagles have allowed just five touchdowns to opposing running backs this season, which is the best in the NFL. This will be quite the test for Jacobs, one of the NFL's best red zone running backs.
