Go here for this week's Passing Matchups.
Top 5 Rushing Matchups
Atlanta vs Carolina
Atlanta is in a must-win situation heading into Week 18. They need to win, combined with a Buccaneers loss, to make the playoffs. Expect the Falcons to lean heavily on Bijan Robinson this week after the team got away from the run a little bit in Week 17 despite getting out to a 17-7 halftime lead. Atlanta's running backs had just 20 carries, with Robinson leading the way with 17. This was the first time Robinson had fewer than 20 carries since Week 11. Tyler Allgeier, who had been averaging 10 carries per game over the last four games, had just three carries as, surprisingly was only on the field for just 13% of snaps, which could be an indication this week that in these must-win games, they're going to ride with the more talented back in Robinson. Expect the coaching staff to look at the game plan and come out with a more run-heavy approach in this favorable matchup this week.
Carolina's run defense continues to struggle, and now it just goes from bad to worse. The Panthers lost Josey Jewell with a concussion; he looks like he won't play this week. Jewell had been their lone linebacker who had been playing anywhere close to an NFL level. On the defensive line, it looks like the Panthers could also be without A'Shawn Robinson, who left last week with a neck injury. The Jewell injury is simply catastrophic for the Panthers, who are now going to be without their top four middle linebackers to start the season on an already bad run defense. They'll be relying on undrafted rookie Jacoby Windmon and Chandler Wooten, who has been primarily a special teams player in his three seasons in the NFL. Last week, the Panthers allowed 113 yards to Bucky Irving and have now allowed 100 rushing yards or more to opposing running backs in seven of their last eight games.
Arizona vs San Francisco
James Conner will miss this week after being placed on IR with a knee injury he re-injured early in Week 17 after just four carries. With Trey Benson out in Week 17, Michael Carter filled in for Conner and was impressive in Week 17 as he had 70 yards on 13 carries after being elevated from the practice squad. The Cardinals also placed Benson on IR this week, indicating that Carter will once again be the lead back in Arizona. Carter was on the field for 72% of plays in Week 17 after Conner was injured, and with the team not wanting to give DeeJay Dallas an expanded role, expect Carter to get closer to 80-85% of snaps this week as he would take up the Conner snaps that he had early in Week 17. The offensive line for Arizona has been an issue as they lost Paris Johnson, Will Hernandez, and Jonah Williams in recent weeks. Footballguys offensive line expert Matt Bitonti has this as the worst offensive line in the NFL due to these injuries to some of the stalwarts they've built this line around.
San Francisco's run defense collapse has completely imploded in recent weeks. Since Week 12, this defense has allowed 139 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, who are second only behind Carolina. They're allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, and five of the last six running backs they've faced have topped 100 yards. While linebacker Fred Warner continues to play at an elite level, he does not have much help around him. Fellow linebacker Dre Greenlaw is back on IR after being re-injured in Week 16. While safety Talanoa Hufanga has not been the elite run-stopper we saw in 2022, the big issue for the 49ers is their defensive line. This team was built to create pressure, rush the passer, and rely on their linebackers to stop the run. With Greenlaw injured and De'Vondre Campbell suspended, the team's flaws along the defensive line have been exposed. Maliek Collins, Yetur Gross-Matos, Leonard Floyd, and Jordan Elliott have struggled all season stopping the run, and while Nick Bosa is an adequate run-stopper, he's a far better pass-rusher at the defensive end.
Philadelphia vs NY Giants
The Eagles decided to sit Saquon Barkley heading into their Week 18 matchup after being just 101 yards away from Eric Dickerson's single-season record. Along with Barkley, expect no Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, and potentially some of their veteran offensive lineman, such as Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson, who are not practicing early in the week. Expect Kenneth Gainwell to get the start for the Eagles, but if Will Shipley is active from a concussion, they could give the rookie an extended look this week as they look to determine their third-string running back of the future.
The Giants are still fighting even if it costs them a future draft pick, as they pulled a surprise upset over the Indianapolis Colts last week. While they were competitive in this game, the run defense continued to struggle for the Giants. Jonathan Taylor torched this defense as he ran for 125 yards and two touchdowns. The Giants have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs since Week 10, and with no Dexter Lawrence II, who was injured in Week 13, the defensive line has major flaws. This defensive line was built to rush the passer with Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux while relying on All-Pro Lawrence to do enough to plug the middle to hide the weaknesses at linebacker. At linebacker, this was already a weak unit heading into the season, but with Micah McFadden looking unlikely to play after being injured in Week 16, the Giants would be without their top two linebackers as they already lost Bobby Okereke earlier this season. This would force the Giants to rely on 6th-round rookie Darius Muasau and special teams veteran Ty Summers, who has been in the NFL since 2019 and has not played much linebacker but did have 11 tackles last week, eight of which were assists.
Green Bay vs Chicago
Over the second half of the season, Josh Jacobs has been one of the most dependable running backs in the NFL. While he has just one 100+ yard game over his last eight performances, he has 60 rushing yards or more in 11 of his last 12 games. Touchdowns have spiked over the second half of the year for Green Bay, as Jacobs has 11 touchdowns in his last seven games, scoring in all seven. Jacobs had just three rushing touchdowns in his first nine games to start this season. This is an important game for the Packers as if they win and Washington were to lose, Green Bay would avoid having to go to Philadelphia and instead would play the Rams or Tampa Bay. Green Bay's offensive line has been remarkably healthy this season as they have only had one player miss any time, and that was center Josh Myers, who missed only one game this season back in Week 9.
After looking like the defense may have quit for the season, the Bears defense played well last week despite a 6-3 losing effort to Seattle. This defense had given up 30 or more points in three straight games after firing head coach Matt Eberflus, but the defense held strong, holding Zach Charbonnet to just 57 yards on 15 carries. Getting Germon Dexter back last week significantly boosted a depleted defensive line, but this remains a flawed run defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. In their first matchup this season, the Bears struggled to stop Josh Jacobs, as he had 76 yards and a touchdown while also adding another 58 receiving yards for Green Bay.
Buffalo at New England
With Buffalo having nothing to play for in Week 18, their game plan is a bit unique this week. They're going to start Josh Allen, but only to keep his consecutive games played streak alive, so expect that Allen will play for a series. Head coach Sean McDermott has indicated that certain starters will play while others will rest, and it seems likely that James Cook will not play in this game. They've already seen that Ray Davis is a more than capable backup when given the opportunity this season, so having Cook out there in a game that doesn't matter seems to be the only downside for the Bills. Davis made one start this season against the Jets in which he had 20 carries for 97 yards, as he seems to be the type of running back that performs better as he gets more carries. Ty Johnson will continue to have a role as he has had all season in the passing game. Johnson has consistently been around 30% of snaps all season, even when Cook was out.
The Patriots have struggled against the run for most of the season. While they did show improvement with Christian Barmore and Jabrill Peppers from Weeks 11 through 15, they've now fallen off again without two of their best run-stoppers. Without Barmore, this is a defensive line that just is not consistently able to make enough plays, while the linebacker unit has been decimated by injury and poor roster management as they lost both starting linebackers early on in the season with Ja'Whaun Bentley's injury and Raekwon McMillan who was cut. While a linebacking group of Jahlanai Tavai, Sione Takitaki, and Christian Elliss would not be catastrophic playing behind a good defensive line, this is one of the weakest defensive lines in the NFL, and it only exposes their linebackers even more. Tavai was great in 2023 but has not been able to get back to that elite run-stopper that we saw last season, as he's spending too much time worrying about shedding blockers instead of being able to just react to what is happening in front of him. The Patriots have been one of the worst run-stopping units all season, so it is difficult to see much change here in the final week of the year.
Bottom 5 Rushing Matchups
Cleveland at Baltimore
The Browns are a complete mess, just sputtering into Week 18. At running back, it is unclear who will play the position for them as Pierre Strong Jr (concussion) and Jerome Ford (ankle) are unlikely to play as neither has practiced as of Wednesday on a short week. This likely means that Cleveland will only have D'Onta Foreman as the only healthy running back. Foreman led the team in carries in Week 17, with 13 carries for 49 yards. He's a downhill runner who rarely will be stopped for a loss but has just one carry longer than 12 yards all season. In a game where Cleveland is a significant underdog facing a motivated Ravens team, it seems the game script should also be working against Cleveland in this one. Foreman is the only player left on a roster that has lost Nick Chubb, Jerome Ford, Pierre Strong Jr, and Nyheim Hines. So, he should see a majority of the workload, but expectations should remain low for one of the worst offenses in the NFL as Bailey Zappe will get the start for the Browns this week.
Baltimore's run defense has been one of the most consistent units in the NFL this season. Outside of Saquon Barkley, no running back has topped 100 yards against this defense, and they are now allowing the fewest rushing yards per game to opposing running backs at just 65 per game after Kansas City's recent slump. If you want any chance to beat this defense, it has to be off-tackle, as up the middle simply is not an option, with Travis Jones and Michael Pierce clogging up the middle at a combined 700 pounds. Even if you're able to get past the largest defensive line in the NFL, the Ravens have two All-Pro run-stoppers at linebacker and safety as Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton continue to be amongst the best duos in the NFL as both players have over 100 tackles this year. Expect D'Onta Foreman to struggle this week if he's the primary back for the Browns, as he does not have the lateral agility to cause the Ravens any issues this week.
New York Giants at Philadelphia
Tyrone Tracy Jr. was extremely disappointing in Week 17. What had set up to be a great day after a 40-yard run in the first quarter was a letdown as Tracy finished the day with 20 carries for 59 yards. Essentially, his other 19 carries amounted to just 19 yards on the day, as he was unable to get any consistency going for the Giants despite the team putting up 45 points in a victory. Tracy will once again see the majority of the workload as Devin Singletary continues to be buried in the backup role, seeing about 25% of the snaps. The offensive line has been an issue for the Giants all season, as they're ranked 28th in Matt Bitonti's offensive line rankings. Unless Tracy can have multiple big plays, expectations should be low this week as Tracy has not been able to consistently gain yardage since Week 11 against Carolina.
While it remains to be seen who the Eagles will be resting this week, NFL teams can only rest so many players given the roster sizes and the need to still field a competitive team. While they're likely to sit a significant amount of their offensive stars, they will likely continue to play most of their defense this week. With the addition of Bryce Huff, who returned last week after a broken wrist, it's another depth piece that the Eagles can add to their defensive line. This defense allows the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, and while they allowed 104 rushing yards to Rico Dowdle last week, that was the first running back to top 100 yards all season. Last week, the Cowboys resorted to running the ball 23 times despite the final score being 41-7. The Eagles were happy to let the Cowboys run the ball 4-5 yards at a time to bleed off the clock, ultimately leading to Dowdle's big performance. This is one of the deepest front sevens in the NFL, as they seemingly have no holes, with linebackers Zack Baun and Nakobe Dean playing behind a loaded defensive line led by Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith Jr., and Josh Sweat.
Baltimore vs Cleveland
Derrick Henry has been dominant over the last two weeks. Henry has run for 147 yards against Houston and 162 against Pittsburgh as the Ravens have dominated their opponents. They are a win away from clinching the division and heading into the playoffs as one of the most dangerous teams in the AFC. The Ravens have just leaned on Henry to grind out these dominant wins, as he has 51 carries over his last two games. A big reason for the volume surge has been the injury to Justice Hill, who missed the last two weeks. Hill is looking unlikely to play once again as he has not practiced as of Wednesday with a concussion, which will make it hard to clear protocol even though he was expected to play this week. If he's unable to go, this would help Henry's outlook once again, but don't expect 24+ carries this week. While this is a game that the Ravens need to win, they're also huge favorites against the Browns, who are incentivized to lose this game as there is a chance they could end up with the number one overall pick. Expect Keaton Mitchell to have a big role in this game, as he had 11 carries last week.
As bad as Cleveland's season has gone, the one bright spot continues to be their run defense. Consistently facing negative game scripts in their 3-13 season, Cleveland has held opposing running backs to the fifth-fewest fantasy points on the season. Last week, the Browns shut down De'Von Achane, holding him to just 25 rushing yards on 10 attempts. Cleveland has not allowed a 100-yard rusher all season and just one running back to top 90 yards, as Chase Brown did in Week 16 with 91 rushing yards. In their first meeting, the Ravens shockingly abandoned the run as Derrick Henry ran the ball only 11 times for 73 yards while scoring a touchdown as the Browns upset the Ravens 29-24. Defensive end Isaiah McGuire has emerged as an elite run-stopper paired with Myles Garrett, while linebackers Jordan Hicks and Devin Bush have had career resurgences this season.
NY Jets vs Miami
Offensively, the Jets are a complete mess, as they don't seem to have an offensive identity. Over the last four games, Breece Hall has largely been a non-factor, as he has 12 or fewer touches in three of those four games. While the rushing volume has always been sporadic, he has two or fewer targets in three of those four games, as Aaron Rodgers and this offense are just not throwing the ball to running backs. With a three-headed committee of Hall, Braelon Allen, and Isaiah Davis, it's difficult to get excited about Hall having to share the snap count with those other backs. With Aaron Rodgers' future uncertain, it seems likely that the Jets will attempt to take a pass-heavy approach in a difficult matchup against the Dolphins this week.
Miami has everything to play for this week. In a must-win situation, the Dolphins will once again lean on their run defense, which continues to be one of the best in the NFL. Over the second half of the season, Miami is allowing just 68 yards per game as they have allowed just one running back to top 60 yards, which was Kyren Williams, who had 62 yards on 15 carries back in Week 10. Miami's defense was a work in progress all season, but the play of defensive tackles Zach Sieler and Calais Campbell has been the best defensive tackle duo in the NFL, which has greatly boosted the linebacker play of Jordyn Brooks, who has emerged as one of the games elite run-stoppers as he leads the team with 137 tackles. With the Jets having very little to play for, expect them to take a pass-heavy approach against Miami this week in what could be Rodgers' final game.
Minnesota at Detroit
Aaron Jones will set a career-best this season for both rush attempts and yards, yet somehow, his 2024 season seems a bit disappointing. Jones has just two 100-yard games all year and has just five rushing touchdowns. After starting the season with 90 rushing yards or more in four of his first six games, Jones has only topped 90 yards one additional time. He's been a model of consistency, as most weeks, you know you'll get between 55-75 yards from him over the course of the second half of the season. The Vikings have had to shift their offensive philosophy after Week 8 to become more of a pass-heavy offense, given the critical injury to left tackle Christian Darrisaw, who was lost for the season. While replacement Cam Robinson has filled in nicely after the team traded for him earlier this season, he's a far better pass blocker than run blocker, which has played into the offensive shift of this team. Minnesota has averaged throwing the ball 34 times after Week 6 compared to 27 times over the first six games.
Detroit has stabilized its defense after suffering several injuries this season, and it has turned back into the elite run-stopping unit that we've seen for most of the season. Over the last two games, Detroit has held D'Andre Swift (20 yards) and Isaac Guerendo (34 yards) to some of their lowest outputs of the season. The Lions combine a strong defensive line led by Za'Darius Smith and Alim McNeil with the best safety duo in the NFL, as Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph make it nearly impossible for the Lions to allow big plays. Also helping the Lions has been their funnel defense, as it has been much easier for opponents to throw against this defense than run against them, as they are facing the fewest rushing attempts this season. With the offense playing as well as it has been, expect the Vikings to need to take a pass-heavy approach this week to compete against the Lions.
