Go here for this week's Passing Matchups.
Top 5 Rushing Matchups
Tampa Bay vs Carolina
We saw a complete change last week in Tampa Bay's rushing offense. What has mostly been a committee approach for most of the season was anything but that in Week 16. Bucky Irving led the team with 16 carries compared to Rachaad White, who had just three carries last week. Interestingly, the snaps have largely remained the same, with White having 50% of the snaps and Irving having 57%. White was heavily utilized in the passing attack as he caught a career-high seven passes last week and now has 50 receptions on the year. Excluding the Week 14 game where Bucky Irving was injured, Irving has averaged 19.6 touches per game compared to White's 14. Expect this trend to continue as the rookie Irving has emerged as one of the best young running backs in the NFL.
Carolina's run defense continues to be the worst in the NFL by a wide margin. They have now allowed 141 rushing yards to opposing running backs on the season, which is 24 more rushing yards than the second-most team in the NFL. The Panthers have now allowed six of the last seven running backs to top 100 rushing yards, as James Conner, Rico Dowdle, Saquon Barkley, Bucky Irving, Tyrone Tracy Jr., and Alvin Kamara have all topped 100 yards in the last seven games. The Panthers are simply desperate at this point to find a capable linebacker, as they've lost three of their top four middle linebackers and started undrafted rookie Jacoby Windman last week, who was signed off of Pittsburgh's practice squad earlier this season and received the first hip-drop tackle penalty in NFL history this past week. With the league's worst defensive line, as Shy Tuttle and LaBryan Ray are not NFL caliber players, combined with a linebacker group made up of Josey Jewell, who was a replacement level off-ball linebacker forced to play middle linebacker along with Windmon, make up the worst linebacking unit in the NFL. Overall, the Panthers should have zero expectations of stopping any opponent throughout the remainder of the season.
Seattle at Chicago
Seattle was completely shut down by Minnesota in Week 16 as they were unable to run the ball and went with a pass-heavy game plan. With Zach Charbonnet and Ken Walker III dealing with injuries, neither had success, as Charbonnet had just one carry while Walker led the team with eight carries but amassed just 31 yards. Walker suffered a new injury in this game as he had been dealing with a calf injury but now was an estimated non-participant on Monday's injury report with an ankle injury. Meanwhile, Zach Charbonnet was an estimated limited participant with an elbow injury. If only one of these running backs is healthy, we'll see the volume consolidate around that player. Ken Walker III would see most of the carries if they're both healthy. Over the last three weeks, with both running backs dealing with injuries, we have seen Kenny McIntosh have a role as he's been on the field for about 20% of snaps over the last three weeks and could be someone to watch in Week 18 if the Seahawks rest their starters.
The Bears' defense has simply fallen apart. Whether it is due to a lack of effort after their Thanksgiving Day loss or the firing of head coach Matt Eberflus, who was also their defensive play caller, the Bears have now allowed 34 points per game since the firing of Eberflus. A big reason for the poor defense has been the inability to stop the run. Since Week 9, the Bears have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, are allowing 135 rushing yards per game, which is second in the NFL just behind Carolina, and overall have been a team that just seems ready for the offseason. While the defensive line is a critical need to be addressed this offseason as second-year Zacch Pickens and Byron Cowart are not NFL-caliber players, it has been the falloff of the linebacking unit that the Bears invested heavily in that has been the major reason they have not been able to stop the run. T.J. Edwards continues to have the worst season in his career, while Tremaine Edmunds got paid by the Bears in 2023 and has not been the same player they brought over from Buffalo. This defense does not have the personnel or the motivation to turn this thing around with just two weeks remaining.
Atlanta at Washington
Bijan Robinson has been a volume workhorse over the last six weeks. Outside of a 38-6 loss to Denver in which the game script got out of hand, Robinson has at least 20 carries in all five other games. Robinson has been extremely efficient, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, even with the increased volume. Last week, the change to Michael Penix Jr. had no impact on his output, as he ran for 94 yards and scored twice against the Giants, who had shut down Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara in back-to-back weeks. While the rushing volume for Robinson has increased, it has been at the expense of his pass-catching touches, as he has just two targets in each of his last three games. The Falcons' offensive line has been tremendous this season, led by right guard Chris Lindstrom, one of the best guards in the NFL; both tackles are a strength of this team as veteran Jake Matthews and Kaleb McGary are excellent run blockers. Tyler Allgeier continues to have a role in this offense. However, he's largely been unproductive, averaging 10 carries per game over his last four games, just 3.6 yards per carry, largely boosted by a 25-yard and 19-yard carry.
After looking improved for a couple of weeks, the Commanders fell right back into the run defense we have seen for most of the season, allowing the fifth-most rushing yards to opposing running backs this season. Saquon Barkley ran for 150 yards and two touchdowns last week, as the defensive line continues to be an issue. While the linebackers are a strength led by the ageless Bobby Wagner, the defensive line with Jer'Zhan Newton and Daron Payne has been unable to stop the run. Barkley was the fourth running back to top 100 yards this season. While the Commanders' offense should help avoid some of the volume we saw this week, Atlanta will likely take a run-heavy approach with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier to test the Commanders this week. One key player to watch is Jonathan Allen, as the veteran says he's close to playing in Week 17. While Allen is no longer the elite run-stopper he was early on in his career, he's still a capable body, which they desperately need along their defensive line.
Detroit at San Francisco
With David Montgomery out for at least the regular season, Jahmyr Gibbs will be one of the best fantasy backs in the NFL. Last week, Gibbs had a season-high 23 carries for 109 yards while adding 45 receiving yards against Chicago. Volume had been a concern for Gibbs as he has less than ten carries in two of his last four games, with the committee playing a hot-hand approach with him and Montgomery. With Montgomery no longer in the picture, Gibbs has been on the field for 70% of the plays last week, with that number being reduced due to the game script and the Lions having a commanding lead. Gibbs is running behind one of the league's best offensive lines, especially the right side, with center Frank Ragnow, right guard Kevin Zeitler, and right tackle Penei Sewell, all of who are amongst the best at their respective position. The Lions left guard Graham Glasgow did miss Week 16, although Dan Campbell came out and said that he expects Glasgow to start this week, but it is something to keep an eye on as the week progresses.
San Francisco's run defense has completely collapsed. After starting the year as one of the better units in the NFL, they've allowed 100-yard performances to four of the last five teams they've faced, as De'Von Achane torched them this past week, running for 120 yards and a touchdown. Despite getting Nick Bosa, Dre Greenlaw, and Talanoa Hufanga back, this defense still seems unable to stop the run, largely due to the interior of the defensive line. Maliek Collins and Jordan Elliott have been abysmal at defensive tackle. A big question for the 49ers is how motivated they will be after the disappointing season where they were eliminated from playoff contention this week. The big plays have hurt this team, as De'Von Achane had a 50-yard run last week and James Cook a 65-yard run in Week 13, but we also saw both Kyren Williams and Josh Jacobs top 100 yards without a run longer than 15 yards, so they're giving up production to running backs both ways. A big reason for this is the issues that the 49ers have at cornerback, as Charvarius Ward is having a career-worst season, along with starting a rookie cornerback, Renardo Green, opposite of Ward. This has forced Warner and Greenlaw to be more schematically focused on pass coverage than the elite run-stopping abilities we've seen in prior years.
LA Rams vs Arizona
After a mid-season slump in which he did not score a touchdown for four games, Kyren Williams is back to being the player that we saw early in 2024, as he has topped 100 yards in three of his last four games and has scored a touchdown in four of his last five games. The biggest thing for Williams is that the workload has returned to his pre-slump levels, as he has 29, 29, and 23 carries over his last three games. Williams is the type of player who will not succeed unless he can get this volume, as he has just two carries longer than 20 yards all season, with his longest being 30 yards. He rarely gets tackled for a loss, consistently getting three to six yards almost every carry. While the offensive line has had issues with pass blocking, it is a very good run-blocking unit led by their tackles Alaric Jackson and Rob Havenstein. Rookie Beaux Limmer at center has been strong with his run blocking, albeit a complete liability in pass protection.
After being an average unit for most of the season, the Arizona Cardinals run defense has absolutely collapsed the last three weeks. Facing a fairly easy schedule of Chuba Hubbard, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Zach Charbonnet, the Cardinals allowed 5.9 yards per carry to those three running backs as Hubbard and Charbonnet both topped 130 yards, with Hubbard amassing 152 yards and two touchdowns last week. A big issue for the Cardinals was the loss of Mack Wilson Sr., who missed last week due to a concussion sustained in Week 15, which forced Julian Okwara and Krys Barnes into playing time and put significant pressure on linebacker Kyzir White. The Cardinals need Wilson back, as their defensive line is one of the weakest in the NFL. Former first-round pick L.J. Collier has struggled throughout his career, while 2024 first-round pick Dante Robinson missed most of his rookie season with a calf injury, and it is taking him some time to acclimate with the team as he's struggled to consistently stop the run in his four games back from injury.
Bottom 5 Rushing Matchups
Pittsburgh vs Kansas City
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren were unable to get much going last week against the Ravens. Now, on a short week of just three days rest, they'll be asked to play again against another elite run defense. Harris and Warren failed to top 50 yards against Baltimore last week, as this offense is struggling. As somewhat expected due to the strong interior of the Ravens last week, Jaylen Warren led the team in carries as he had 12 compared to Najee Harris' nine. The Steelers have faced a gauntlet of run defenses as they faced Baltimore and Philadelphia in back-to-back weeks and now have to face the league's best run-stopping unit in Kansas City. Pittsburgh needs to find a way to get into a positive game script, as they're a team that relies on a high-volume rushing attack and has only run the ball 31 times between Harris and Warren over the last two games. Part of the issue for Pittsburgh has been the right side of the offensive line. Rookie guard Mason McCormick has struggled over the second half of the season, as has second-year first-round pick right tackle Broderick Jones. Rookie center Zach Frazier looks like a piece that the Steelers can build around as they are in a multi-year offensive line rebuild.
Kansas City continues to be the gold standard of run defenses this season, as they held Joe Mixon to just 57 rushing yards and were a key reason the Chiefs won another close game this week. Kansas City has allowed just one running back to top 75 yards all season: Jerome Ford, who had 84 yards, and 62 of those yards came on one carry in Week 15. Playing on a short week will benefit the Chiefs based on their cohesion, as there is only so much game planning that can go into a four-day turnaround between games. This is a veteran-filled front seven led by All-Pro Chris Jones. Fortunately, the team has had no major injuries this season and has kept a roster together despite winning back-to-back Super Bowls. This has allowed these players to be one of the best-run defenses in the NFL despite not having the truly elite talent besides Jones. At linebacker, both Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill are only slightly above average run-stoppers as the duo leads the team in tackles, while Justin Reid is a good run-stopper who can typically prevent the big plays as the last line of defense. Under Steve Spagnuolo, Kansas City's defense is rarely out of position, will confuse poor offensive lines with their blitz scheme, and overall make life difficult for opposing offenses. One thing to keep in mind is Chris Jones' health. With the quick turnaround and Jones not practicing on Sunday or Monday, he could be in line to miss this week. If the All-Pro defensive end were to miss, it would have far more impact on the pass rush but would knock this defense down a couple of spots in the rankings. They would still be a bad matchup, given all the other talent on this defense and the ability to slide Charles Omenihu inside, but it would be much closer to a "tough" matchup than a bad one.
Houston vs Baltimore
Joe Mixon's success continues to be that he dominates the favorable matchups and struggles against some of the more difficult matchups. Last week, Mixon wasn't bad, but compared to his early season success, it was a struggle as he ran for just 57 yards on 14 carries. Mixon has topped 100 yards in 7 of his 12 games this season, but in his other five games, he's averaging just 34.6 rushing yards per game. A big reason for the inconsistency is that this is an offensive line that can get overwhelmed quickly. The right side of the offensive line has struggled as rookie right tackle Blake Fisher has struggled while dealing with significant injuries. Second-year center Jarrett Patterson is an adequate pass-blocker but has been abysmal run-blocking. With Tank Dell out for the season, defenses may be stacking the box even more than normal, as they only really need to fear Nico Collins in this passing game, with both Dell and Stefon Diggs now out for the year.
If Kansas City is the best run-stopping unit in the NFL, then Baltimore is certainly the second-best. Baltimore overwhelmed Pittsburgh in Week 16, holding Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris to under 50 yards each. This is a different defense with Michael Pierce and Travis Jones back in the lineup, as the mammoth defensive tackles played 50% of the snaps last week. Putting pressure on opposing offensive linemen to block the 340-pound Jones and 360-pound Pierce is exhausting, especially when you have elite run-stoppers in Kyle Hamilton and Roquan Smith, who are nearly flawless when they do not have to shed blockers. Baltimore is allowing the second-fewest yards to opposing running backs this season, as they're allowing just 66 rushing yards per game and just 3.5 yards per carry. Only Saquon Barkley topped 100 yards against this defense.
Cleveland vs Miami
We largely know what Jerome Ford is at this point in his career. He's a running back who will do everything possible to make the big play. If he doesn't make that big run, he will struggle. Over the last two weeks, Ford has 84 and 92 yards, which is not sustainable as he has done that on 7 and 11 carries but has 60+ yard runs over the last two games. With Dorian Thompson-Robinson likely starting again in Week 17 as long as he's healthy, expect a negative game script as the Browns were unable to move the ball last week as they got blown out 24-6 in a game that was never close. Cleveland has been quick to abandon the run, as they ran the ball just 15 times in that loss. The offensive line has also been a problem for the Browns. Left tackle Germaine Ifedi, the fourth-string offensive tackle, has been the worst left tackle in football, while the rest of the offensive line just seems to have lost motivation. Veterans Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller are having one of the worst seasons in their careers, especially for Bitonio, as the future Hall of Famer is starting to show his age at 33 this season.
Miami's run defense has continued to improve as the season has progressed. Last week, Miami completely shut down San Francisco's rushing attack, holding Patrick Taylor Jr. to just 24 yards on eight carries. Miami has not allowed a running back to top 50 yards since Week 10, as they're allowing just 58 rushing yards per game since Week 11, which is the third-best in the NFL. The strength of the Miami defense is the interior of their defensive line as Zach Sieler is playing at an All-Pro level alongside future Hall of Famer Calais Campbell, who at age 38 continues to be one of the best defensive tackles in the NFL as he's able to leverage his 6-8 frame to take up a significant amount of space even if he is somewhat undersized at just 280 pounds. The biggest beneficiary of these two defensive tackles has been linebacker Jordyn Brooks. Brooks was largely a replacement-level linebacker prior to this season but has emerged as one of the game's elite run-stoppers, as he's leading the team with 128 tackles this season.
Dallas at Philadelphia
Rico Dowdle, who had greatly benefitted from three great matchups, finally returned to earth last week as the Cowboys could not run the ball against Tampa Bay's elite run defense last week. Dowdle ran the ball 13 times and had just 23 yards last week, as their longest carry was just six yards. This was coming off three straight 100-yard performances against some of the league's worst defenses in the Giants, Bengals, and Panthers. The Cowboys' offensive line has been volatile this season as they're an inexperienced unit, especially since they lost their captain, Zach Martin, for the season. Cooper Beebe has been up and down at center, while the Cowboys have been trying to find an answer at left tackle as first-round pick Tyler Guyton has been a liability. The Cowboys moved to bench Guyton in favor of Chuma Edoga, and overall, it has had very little impact on this offensive line as Edoga was overwhelmed against Tampa Bay last week. Dowdle is a running back who can succeed against great matchups but is not an established enough running back to overcome some of the most challenging matchups he'll face, so expect week-to-week volatility.
The Eagles run defense continues to improve throughout this season. After a slow start to the year, the Eagles have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game since Week 9, behind Tampa Bay and Miami. The Eagles have built this defense based on a combination of high draft picks and some fortunate free agent signings, as Zack Baun is likely going to end up being a First-Team All-Pro at linebacker this season after the team signed him to a one-year $3.5M contract this offseason after demand for the former Saints linebacker was extremely low. Along the defensive line, the Eagles have drafted heavily over the last couple of seasons, as they took Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith Jr. in the 2023 first round while taking Jordan Davis in the 2022 first round. The strategy of GM Howie Roseman paid off as he intentionally took all three players out of the University of Georgia along with linebacker Nakobe Dean, which created a cohesion that most young defenses simply don't have.
Carolina at Tampa Bay
Chuba Hubbard is coming off of another tremendous performance this past week as the running back carried the Panthers to a 36-30 overtime victory. Hubbard was outstanding as he ran for 152 yards and two touchdowns after struggling in his four previous games where he failed to top four yards per carry. Hubbard is a player who is good enough to exploit the great matchups but will struggle in the difficult matchups, as evidenced by his 100-yard performances against Arizona, the New York Giants, Cincinnati, and Las Vegas. The offensive line for Carolina has been one of the team's bright spots as former first-round pick left tackle Ikem Ekwonu has developed into a great run-blocker, while both guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt have been above average despite the team's offensive struggles this season.
Tampa Bay's run defense has re-emerged as one of the elite units in the NFL. Since Week 10, the Buccaneers have allowed a staggering 47 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, which leads the NFL. While the competition has played a role in this, they did shut down Christian McCaffrey, Chuba Hubbard, Tyrone Tracy Jr., and Rico Dowdle, all of who were trending in the right direction prior to their matchup, only to be held to under 50 yards against the Buccaneers. Vita Vea has re-established himself as a game-wrecking defensive tackle as the 350-pound veteran is just a difficult player to move, which opens up lanes for veteran Lavonte David, who, at age 35, continues to play at an extremely high level. Undrafted linebacker J.J. Russell, who is filling in for the injured K.J. Britt, has excelled in the run game despite having significant flaws in coverage. He's a player that, even with Britt potentially returning this week, could see snaps on critical rushing downs. Also, helping the Buccaneers continues to be their weak pass defense, as they continue to have one of the league's worst secondaries, forcing teams to take a funnel approach and throw the ball against this defense.
